In its last meeting in Juba, the SPLM Interim Political Bureau (IPB) resolved on the 11th instant that its ministers in the Government of National Unity (GONU) will have to stay at home until the reshuffle of the SPLM ministers in the GONU is effected.

The implications of such a decision are very serious and cannot be left to the SPLM alone. The Southerners of all walks of life must debate this development very candidly so that we are not dragged into a situation which was not foreseen. The ignition of the 1955 civil war and the massacres of Southerners in Khartoum in December 1965 and again in August 2005 are painful incidents from which we should learn the correct lessons.

Politically, there is nothing like staying out of work for ministers. They are either exercising their normal duties in Government or the SPLM pulls out of it.
 
Pulling out of government means dissolving the coalition government, in this case the partnership between the SPLM and the National Congress Party (NCP), and therefore the breakdown of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). Is the South prepared for that serious step now especially on an insignificant issue such as the reshuffle within the ministers of the SPLM in GONU?
 
In practical terms, pulling of the SPLM out of the GONU means that all the SPLM ministers, including the First Vice President, have to resign from the GONU. The First Vice President is the Chairman of the SPLM and there is no way that the ministers of his party leave a government he continues to be a member of. This should be clearly understood.

If the SPLM pulls out of the CPA, there can be only two options at its disposal: either it goes back to war straight or the South makes a unilateral declaration of independence (UDI).

The second option cannot be accepted by the Government in Khartoum because it would be an illegal move and like any rebellion, the sovereign government has a responsibility to subdue it, in addition, of course, to the attendant complications of international law in this respect.

All these options require mobilization of manpower, resources and international opinion. None of this the SPLM has done. Right now, the Southern public is not clear what the quarrel is all about.

The SPLA remains not prepared for any eventuality, least of all war. In fact the utterances of the SPLM leaders rule out war whereas the end result of such decisions can be war. Who knew at that time that the killing of a duke in Sarajievo in the last century could have led to the Second World War?

When the political atmosphere is highly charged it can be ignited by the slightest action. This is why the political leaders must be very careful about what they say and do.
 
What is worse is that the SPLM leaders are misleading public opinion about the exact content of the resolution in Juba. Some say that the SPLM ministers will resume their work as soon as the reshuffle is effected and some, ashamed of trivializing the issue, said that the boycott of work by the SPLM ministers will not be lifted until all the outstanding issues in the CPA are resolved!!

This means that the SPLM will not rejoin GONU until Abyei problem, redeployment of the army, demarcation of the borders, etc. are resolved. If that be the case, who will implement all those aspects of the CPA?

The public should not be misled about the SPLM resolution. The resolution comes under section 7 which reads as follows, quote:
 
"7. Those acts and practices gave rise to the impression that the NCP was testing the patience of the SPLM and its leadership. And if the SPLM did not act sooner in the last two years, it has done so because of its desire to give peace a chance. But there is a limit to such patience.

Now, therefore, the SPLM Interim Political Bureau in its meeting in Juba on 4th- 11th October 2007 resolves:
i. To call on the leadership of the NCP to take immediate steps towards full implementation of the CPA within an agreed upon time frame, but not later than 9th January 2008.
ii. To further call upon the NCP Leadership to address the SPLM concerns referred to above, including the rectification of the damage caused by gross violations to the INC and CPA in order to put an end to the current undesired stalemate and avert further deterioration of the present situation which threatens the survival of the partnership.
iii. To recall all SPLM Presidential Advisors, Ministers and State Ministers in the Government of National Unity (GONU).
iv. To call upon the President of the Republic to take action on the recommendations of the SPLM Chairman regarding the reshuffle of the SPLM component in the Government of National Unity (GoNU) in order to avoid further action that may lead to the paralysis of GoNU." End of quote.
 
From the above quotation the following facts are very clear:
1. The issues raised in the resolution in connection with the implementation of the CPA are covered by sub-sections (i) and (ii). Sub-section (i) states that steps towards the implementation of the CPA be taken on or before the 9th of January 2008.
2. The recall of SPLM Presidential Advisors, Ministers and State Ministers in the GoNU will only be lifted if "the President of the Republic takes action on the recommendations of the SPLM Chairman regarding the reshuffle of the SPLM component in the Government of National Unity."
 
Put another way, if the President of the Republic carries out the required reshuffle today, the SPLM Presidential Advisors, Ministers and State Ministers will go back to work immediately.

This is the correct interpretation of the resolution. The SPLM leaders should stop fooling the public and come out clean on this matter.
 
 
James Andrew Agany USA
J_agany2006@yahoo.com