|
Unholy
reunion between NCP and SPLM unionists to rig South Sudan referendum
By
Gatkuoth Deng, USA
JUN 6/2010, SSN;
On 29th April 2010, I posted an article in both South Sudan
Nation.com and in some other websites under the title "NCP and SPLM: Are there hidden counter-blackmailing Agreements?"
In it I maintained my belief and advice that speculations
are never thrown out of the window especially when some of them begin to
resemble the situation on the ground under which such rumors are being
speculated.
I now have to recommend to interested readers to revisit, re-read it in
comparison with the current political and security situation we are
facing in our country. I predicted events that would unfold soon after
the elections given my keen observation, though from a distance, and
understanding of the complexity of the political players involved.
I therefore serve this article as a follow-up on my previous two months
old article and to try to examine it within the context of what is
currently happening.
Please bear with me and let us quickly examine what I wrote as I quote
paragraph by paragraph and appreciate how accurate many of my
observations have been two months down the road.
QUOTE:
“There have been speculations, even from well placed speculators that
the two partners to the Nairobi peace accord agreed few weeks before the
conduct of the elections to allow each other to continue to dominate
political power through the outcome of the elections in their respective
regions. In other words, it is about allowing each party to rig the
elections results in its candidates favor at all levels, without the
other party blowing the whistle about it.
This
is with the understanding that the NCP should continue to dominate the
political life in the North while the SPLM should continue to dominate
the political life in the South. The two parties would then and again
form the next Government of National Unity (GoNU) in Khartoum prior to
the conduct of referendum in January 2011.”
END QUOTE.
The
above quote does not need a rocket scientist to interpret it better than
it is. This is now the status quo. NCP has continued to rule the North
while the SPLM to rule the South. But was it through a free and fair
election? I guess not! It was through a black-mailing agreement to rig
the elections in their respective regions, and to keep quiet about it,
in order to keep the status quo.
In other
words, the formation of the governments is simply a replay of the CPA
power sharing agreement or even higher percentages of shares of the
cake.
QUOTE:
“It looks as if the agreement to allow each party to dominate its
region while black-mailing each other may continue until there may be a
future difference which may force them to disclose each others’
mischief. Or probably the wicked NCP may just want the elections dust to
settle in the North and secure SPLM’s blessings before it could resort
to its dirty tricks of exposures in the SPLM and give it a hard time
within its controlled region.” END QUOTE.
That
above quote from my April article has said most of it, if not all. Yes,
the black-mailing agreement, as I chose to call it, was generally
temporary, but was specifically based on common greed for power. Now
that the election dust has settled in the North, and of course through
the blessing of the SPLM, and Khartoum Presidency sworn into office, the
wicked NCP has now resorted to its dirty tricks to penetrate the SPLM in
the South with the aim to disintegrate unionists and separatists and put
the region on fire by taking advantage of the post-elections violence
through the SPLM’s refusal to strategically use a peaceful approach in
dealing with the unfolding rebellions.
Instead
of the SPLM acknowledging its repeated mistakes from the time of
nominations of unpopular candidates to the time of elections rigging and
intimidations of complainers or losers, the same SPLM wants to label as
greedy and unpatriotic those that now fight for their stolen right
(stolen votes) whether legally in the court of law or violently in the
killing field.
This is
ridiculous! It is like a thief who has stolen your property and calls
you greedy and unpatriotic person when you fight him to get back your
property he or she has stolen. It is an immoral way to blackmail others
and shows lack of political will to resolve the core issues that led to
the violence such as that of George Athor and the rest of his colleagues
in a number of states of South Sudan.
Marriage between SPLM unionists and NCP to rig referendum in favor of
unity
QUOTE:
“The two dominant political parties could not come to an agreement on
whether to rig or not rig the referendum. It is an issue left to surface
during its own time! Referendum has proven to be a complicated issue
that has now divided each of the two parties into different camps or
blocs of ‘separatists’ and ‘unionists.’ It is not like the short cut
agreement on ‘rig-me-elected’ kind of common greed shared by officials
from both parties.” END QUOTE.
Well,
what I wrote in the quoted paragraph above is now proving to be true.
The time to rig or not rig the referendum has now come. It has surfaced
this week when the former minister of Foreign Affairs, Deng Alor Kuol (SPLM),
through the directive of President Salva Kiir Mayardit, signed an
agreement with the former security chief, Salah Gosh, to betray the
South by imposing a directive to persuade southerners to vote for
unity during the coming referendum.
In
another word, it is not just ‘persuading’ as such but agreeing as main
ruling parties to rig the referendum result in favor of unity of Sudan
in the same way they rigged the election results in favor of their
respective parties in their respective regions.
QUOTE:
“It is being observed that the NCP has split its opinion into
separatists and unionists, with one camp spearheaded by the President
Omer Hassan el-Bashir and another one led by his deputy, Ali Osman
Mohamed Taha…
The
party’s unionists however do not see the possibility of letting the
South go unless they have exhausted all their destructive machineries
and failed to control it. They would not afford to lose the vast oil
reserves in South Sudan. Even if they were to lose to the strength of
the current flow in the South, they would militarily settle for Abyei,
another oil rich contested area, and no less.
The
SPLM on the other hand is divided into separatist majority and unionist
minority camps. There are also speculations that each party’s bloc
(separatist or unionist) is having underground communications with the
bloc it shares such views with in the other party. These communications
are speculatively extended even to the opposition parties in both North
and South as referendum approaches. That is a complicating matter!”
END QUOTE.
The
above three quoted paragraphs are exactly what is now happening in
respect to the South Sudan referendum. SPLM is melting down into
separatist and unionist camps. Deng Alor Kuol, being in the unionist
camp, has signed that provocative document with another die-hard
unionist NCP spy, called Salah Gosh. You could see that the traditional
players such as Sudan’s second Vice President Ali Osman Mohamed Taha,
and South Sudan Vice President, Dr. Riek Machar Teny, have been
sidelined in that agreement. Bashir delegated Salah Gosh to sign on
behalf of his party (NCP) while Salva Kiir delegated Deng Alor to sign
on behalf of his party (SPLM). NCP had vowed that it would defeat
separatists within the SPLM, and is now doing it with this group that
signs anything to harm the choice of the people.
QUOTE:
“They [SPLM} should also read the mood or minds of the people of
South Sudan through surveys or hearsays whether they are for separation
or unity of Sudan. I am not sure whether or not the two leaders are good
newspapers readers or read articles posted in electronic media. One of
two important articles which could have helped them in predicting their
people’s choice during the coming referendum was the survey conducted
last year by an American-based organization and posted on the internet
in which more than 90% of South Sudanese were reported to have expressed
their will to vote for separation in the referendum. This survey was
reportedly conducted in all the ten states of South Sudan. And I hope
they already know about it.
Another important article was the sample reactions from some of the Juba
residents on the reasons why they thought it was important to vote for
the SPLM’s candidates in the person of Salva Kiir Mayardit and his
“running mate” Dr. Riek Machar Teny. Their choice was very clear and so
I could directly quote them from the article posted on Sudan Tribune
website on 27th April 2010.
It
says: “voting for SPLM Presidential candidate meant voting for CPA; it
meant voting for self-determination; and it also meant voting for a
capable defense of the referendum.”
If
that is so, then the leadership should not attempt to play around with
the referendum. The so-called unionists should allow for free and fair
conduct of the referendum and wait for its results, which I hope they
should also accept.
“A
good percentage of them however indicated that if the elections were to
be conducted after the referendum, some of their immediate priorities
that guided their choices during the recent presidential elections would
change.” END QUOTE.
Such
quotations above are a reminder to those who are tempering with the
people’s referendum on independence that they should not forget an
imminent uprising should they continue to sell out the right of the
people of South Sudan. They promised to take the people to a free and
fair referendum to choose and NOT to a directed and persuaded choice for
unity.
QUOTE:
“Nevertheless, as for the elections results, it is already a
concluded gone case. Those who will try to go to court to challenge the
results will be wasting their time. Judiciary system in both North and
South is currently administered by judges (officials) politically
affiliated to either NCP or SPLM. Given the nature of the elections
results as politically cooked, judges will not help the victims as they
will continue to get directives from their politically affiliated bosses
to throw away the complaints.” END QUOTE.
That has
also become true. Hundreds of cases challenging the results were just
thrown out and trashed by Justice Abel Alier. Judges are just becoming
helpless in this situation as they cannot respond professionally to the
big load of files challenging the results. Why, because they first
consult with their politically affiliated bosses before they could do
anything. And the directive probably given to them is ‘just sit on
them.’
THE LIKELY COMING SCENARIO
To me,
the likely coming scenario may be a complete disintegration of SPLM into
unionists and separatists camps right from the top leadership. The
unionists will definitely side with the NCP’s bloc plus other northern
opposition parties while the separatists will side with the people of
Southern Sudan and most of the Southern Sudan political parties.
The
complications, though, will be a likely confusion between tribal
allegiance and nationalism or adherence to ones principles. Some tribal
supporters may also decide to side with SPLM unionists even if their
true conscience may not be in agreement with the sell out moves for the
so-called directed persuasion of the people of South Sudan to vote for
unity with the north. This may lead to conflicts, even bloody ones, in
the next few months as referendum approaches.
Currently, a group of the ruling clique in Juba speculatively prefers to
postpone and extend the period of the referendum for another two years.
This may be simply because they fear that any referendum resulting to
separation may also lead to the end of their leadership.
But who
is likely to be the loser: are they the people of Southern Sudan on the
side of separatists, or the minority unionists siding with the NCP or
the North?
Is NCP’s
ruling clique capable of recapturing the South and occupying it again?
No, it would fail together with its unholy alliance with the SPLM
unionists!
However,
NCP has already penetrated the SPLM leadership and divided it between
separatists and unionists, and therefore the people of South Sudan have
got something to be very vigilant about.
The
author is concerned South Sudanese living in USA and can be reached at:
gatkuothlam@yahoo.com
COMMENTS, PLEASE CLICK HERE
Disclaimer:
Disclaimer: The views expressed
above are solely those of the author and do not represent those of the
website. |