Tribal war in South Sudan is unavoidable in 2014-2015

BY: Koul Bol Deng, JUBA, APR/19/2013, SSN;

In this article, I would like to emphasize the title “Tribal war in South Sudan is unavoidable” and justify why war is unavoidable in South Sudan. I’m not being partial in this article favouring the government or those who oppose the regime, but will just explain the facts as an intellectual South Sudanese. I won’t go beyond the context of the intellectual debate initiated in this paper.

First, since the autonomy started back in 2005 with the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) up to this point in time, there hasn’t been any tangible change in government’s policies towards development. The rate of corruption is very high and is being practiced by government’s officials who seem to have impunity and are not accountable for any civil or criminal misconduct.

In order to mitigate the situation, the president announced the issuing (secretly) of official letters to nearly 76 South Sudanese most of them were reported to have been government’s officials. However, up to now there has never been any action taken by the president or the Anti-Corruption Commission.

This was in relation to the 4 billion that got wasted and no accountability has been pursued.

Millions of South Sudanese are dying of hunger, lack of services such as health, education, roads, sanitation, electricity and clean drinking water. Comparing the current regime with Addis Ababa Agreement 1972, the institutions that the government are operating under now, were established during the regional government led by Moulana Abel Alier and later by General Joseph Lago. We are very fortunate that both of them are still alive.

The ministerial compound that currently represents most of the ministries in South Sudan was built during that agreement as well as the University of Juba, some schools and the current hospital.

So the question is, what has the government done with all these millions and no reflection of these monies in development? What is the future of South Sudanese innocent people who have fought the war of liberation?

The second case was the Dura saga where millions of dollars were lost without any accountability.

Third, was the amount of money being given to South Sudan for repatriation of South Sudanese who have been dispersed by the civil war, again these monies have gone to individual pockets.

Fourth, the large sum of money being donated by the Western countries to reform the party (SPLA/M). These monies also got lost and nobody can explain what has been done with the money.

The President, on his being sworn in day one, had declared a zero tolerance but this has never been substantiated. Instead the rate of corruption is growing rampantly and to the highest level.

Fifth, the transitional Constitution of South Sudan 2005 that mandated the president absolute powers, which has been also ratified by the parliament is also among the causes of the problems in South Sudan because the parliament has no say in whatever the president will say, even to the extent that the president is omnipotent and could ignore the parliamentary legislations and work according to his personal convictions.

Here the rule of law has no significant presence since the president is above the law. To be constructive in my argument, the president have gone to the level of dismissing elected governors which had never happened in the history of democracy if we claim to be embracing democratic principles based on what we fought for, justice, equality and freedom for all.

These kinds of situations happen only when the governor breaches certain laws that could jeopardize his position by law and subject to parliamentary agreement.

The point number seven, is the political wrangling within the SPLA/M represented in the political bureau, senior members, the President and his Vice.

Current developments have revealed the president’s withdrawal of certain powers that have been delegated to the Vice and the reason behind that has been alluded to in both the media and public the Vice President’s intention to contest in the next election 2015.

There could have been better way for the President to withdraw these powers since these are administrative powers related to the executive. These included the National Reconciliation Project which has been cancelled being described as a political project which the president has never been cognisant about.

In the real world, such significant national projects cannot be done without the knowledge of the president. Reconciliation is a sensitive project because it involves most of the issues that people need to talk about after war, reconciliation between tribes, individuals and South-North reconciliation.

The election in 2015 might instigate tribal war in South Sudan if not handled with care. The reason behind this is the tribal wrangling between the main tribes, the Dinka and Nuer and the other tribes that have also been marginalized.

The fight between the Vice and the president has been silent but now becomes clear after the president has declared withdrawal of powers from his Vice.

The SPLA/M Political Bureau is dominated by the president’s supporters, and therefore if the SPLA/M nominee or the candidate for 2015 election is selected by the party, definitely President Kiir will get the majority. However, among the ordinary party’s members both (the president and the vice) will get numbers and will sometimes depend on loyalty and tribe.

The president has got absolute powers to dismiss the Vice from position, the government and the party as well.

What happened last week from the president was a test to see how important is the Vice both in the public and the SPLA/M. If the reaction of the people was against the decree, then there would be an alternative plan in the near future as long as the president and his supporters in the SPLA/M and some ordinary citizens are determined not to allow the Vice to hold the top position based on some tribal and personal grounds.

The president is now in power and has got the support of thousands of South Sudanese people, some based on material gain or tribe. The same with the Vice, there are also tribal groups supporting Machar from Nuer sections based on his tribe and those who support him based on personal interest.

Scenario One: the president might issue a decree dismissing his Vice from both positions. That way the Vice will form a political party that competes with SPLA/M and will get majority from the Geater Upper Nile, Equatoria and the minority marginalized tribes in Western Bhar El Gazal. SPLA/M will still have many supporters from different tribes including some Nuer.

That way if the election law and the constitution are passed in 2014, there is a possibility that if the president wins the election, Machar supporters specially from Nuer and other groups will instigate violence and this will divide the army based on tribes.

The same scenario is applicable to Salva in both cases either by genuinely winning the election or rigging it since he is in the power position.

Scenario Two: Riek might get the majority among the citizens of South Sudan especially in Upper Nile and Equatoria plus some areas in Bhar El Gazal. That way if he wins the election SPLA/M will deny him the presidency. His supporters will invoke violence that will turn into tribal war.

Scenario Three: the president might cancel the party’s convention which is supposed to be in May 2013 and the election in 2015 by a presidential decree as usual. In this situation tribal war or a military coup based on tribes will take place.

Scenario Four: if SPLA/M convinced Salva that he is not popular in South Sudan in 2015 election and that the party needs to seek a candidate, what are the outcomes?

First, to be a candidate for such an election you need to be getting support overwhelmingly across all South Sudanese States. It is not a matter of endorsement of a candidate by the party that gives that candidate the right to win the majority. These are two different things and might confuse people.

The candidate might fail or win but still will cause violence.

However, among the party’s senior members that are known overwhelmingly in South Sudan are Pagan Amum, Deng Alor, Luka Biong, Kuol Manyang, John Luk, Taban Deng, Wani Igga, Nhial Deng and James Hoth. Who could be the right candidate to represent the party in 2015 election if the president agreed not to contest?

Among these people, for example, if we select Mr Pagan Amum to contest with Riek Machar whether Riek is an independent candidate or representing a party, there are still difficulties in terms of numbers. Pagan is popular in the party but not among the citizens of South Sudan and he’s being alleged to be part of the corruption and therefore the possibility of winning the election is weak.

If we select Wani Igga, he is not very popular in the other states but only in Equatoria, a support that might not win the majority of the constituencies. Therefore, it is a risky choice for the party. But if he contests with Machar with a Dinka deputy from Bahr El Gazal there is a possibility to win but still Riek has a ground both in the Upper Nile, Bentiu and Equatoria.

Again, if Wani wins the election, Machar’s supporters won’t accept the outcome and might claim that the election is being rigged. Violence will take place and war might happen.

Nhial Deng could have been a better candidate in 2015 but the problem of generalization among the South Sudanese plus tribalism may affect his numbers. Moreover, he is from Bahr El Gazal and might be generalized by the ordinary citizens from other states as the same with Salva.

He is an open-minded person, civilized and not tribalist given his background. Grown up in Khartoum, studied in Khartoum from primary education to the university. Could have been accepted among the Southerners to some degree if not because of tribalism and current corruption practices by Kiir’s regime.

Deng Alor, very well known in the SPLA/M and in Bahr El Gazal and Equatoria. But will that guarantee the presidency if contested in 2015’s election? If he is contesting with Machar, it will be difficult for him to win the majority of votes in the Greater Upper Nile and Equatoria.

Equatoria will be the determinant factor. But will the majority in Equatoria vote for him though the issue of generalization will affect his numbers, being from the Dinka Bahr El Gazal and deeply alleged to be involved in the financial corruption. But again if he wins the election, war is unavoidable based on tribalism.

The fact is that in any political system there are factors of degeneration. In the case of SPLA/M these factors are tribalism, clique and elitism that serve interests of few groups enriching themselves with the public funds.

The party has got no vision at the moment and the only way to get out of that situation is to start the reforms right now by changing some of the policies in the party that would allow transformation into a modern political party, fighting corruption and winning the majority of South Sudanese.

Unlike modern political parties, SPLM/A is not yet reformed, most of the policies still dated back to the movement.

Now it becomes clear that the power struggle in the party is between individuals seeking their own interests, whether tribal or material not the national interest of the innocent South Sudanese.

It will be difficult for the ordinary citizens of South Sudan to differentiate between SPLA/M, their tribes and who will serve their interest given the lack of liberal education and political orientation among the majority.

After the tribal war, the real peace will come and all citizens of South Sudan will treat themselves equally based on the rule of law. Like what happened in Rwanda, genocide is not a good option but it gave an opportunity for democracy to prevail because each tribe will recognize the other and will remember that bad past and the need for a better future for the next generation.

The military, likely SPLA/M figure will take over and the United Nations will monitor the situation after 2015. A transitional period will be initiated to prepare for democracy and a new constitution will be drafted. New parties will emerged or the old ones will be revived and work with SPLA/M.

The SPLA/M will still have large numbers but not a guarantee to win the election in a fair competition after 2015. After 2015 the SPLA/M needs to be very careful because its domination of the political arena after the war might invoke political unrest in the country, not another tribal war.

The oil revenues do not reflect on the lives of the ordinary citizens and therefore poverty and ignorance will continue. In addition, most of the oil funds will go to individuals.

What is the fate of Salva Kiir and Riek Machar?

Both of them might not survive during the war. They might get killed or politically assassinated. If they are alive, both will be answerable to the International Court – ICC – based on crimes committed against humanity.

Email address: kouldeng13@yahoo.com

76 Comments

  1. AW Joseph says:

    In a layman’s language, the following are characteristic of a good leader:

    Being President, Salva is the Father of this big family called South Sudan, this means he has to define and exhibit moral and ethical courage and set an example for everyone in the young nation to follow. What example did Mr. Kirr EXHIBIT? You and me can judge!

    Being a leader enables you to recruit, hire, and promote employees who demonstrate leadership abilities. Look around the Government institutions in South Sudan. What criteria do they practice when employing or promoting employees?

    Being a President requires you to analyse your own strengths and weaknesses, as well as those of the country, this enables you to develop a good sense of reality. What did Salva do in the face of all these challenges in the country?

    Being a President assists you formulate appropriate public policies while at the same time, preventing civil servants or the organised forces from being too tough, ruthless, or mean to other members of the staff or public. Look at the brutality our people suffer at the hands of these illiterate police and army who are rotten to the core.

    In conclusion, we had a better country when the country was united than what we have now. WHY?????? Because we had good schools, Hospitals, better security……… The list is nameless. I am not proud of Salva as my president and will never be proud of an idiot.

  2. Eastern says:

    Kuol Bol, I like your prediction. The numbers are no longer important. South Sudanese will rise against one another during the climax of hate before the real peace is realised based on the need for recognition of each and every South Sudanese regardless of their numbers in the country.

  3. anok maketh says:

    You nailed it to the point, brother. Nothing will save our country under Kiir regime. This man can not think about any thing else but his own position. Riek Machardit on the other hand has been trying to take advantage of Kiir’s weakness & lack of vision to lead. Both men should not contest in 2015 for the good of the nation, period.

    Let’s be realistic, Riek becoming a president? No way! that will definitely divide the nation even deeper because he never did anything in his constitutional powers as vice president to repair the wrong he did in 1991 not only to Bor Dinka but to other communities including lou Nuer & Jikany who fought for more than 3 years the first time in Nasir/Akobo areas in 1993, thousands of lives were lost, till now Riek never visited those areas to see how victims have coped since then.

    To save South Sudan, the army take over is the safe way to do it. That will give SPLM & other parties a significant time to put their houses in order. It will also allow the rule of law to prevail, probably about two years everything would change for the good of the nation. And this should have happened by now, Kiir has no legitimacy right now to continue his term since he failed to curb or quell the ongoing tribal killings in the country. The amount of billions went missing alone, would lead to the impeachment of the president in any other countries across the world, Japanese went to election 6 times in one term to elect 6 different prime ministers.

    • Deng says:

      Is this Anok Maketh I used to know when we were in Kakuma? Or…., anyway, Ms Anok, I like and agree with your ideas here but not with the suggestion you have made of the army taking over the country. This country does not need military government, we can not afford any more terror which we have endured under Garang’s brutality during the war. We need something that is next to democracy which is at play now in South Sudan, not an absolute zero democracy and more than a military rule.
      Brother Koul Bol Deng is wasting our time here by making reference of people like Nhial Deng and Deng Alor just to mention these two individuals. To avert the tribal violence he mentioned several times in his article if we succumb to tribal pressures, we need not to talk of Bhar El Gazal at all let alone Deng Alor whose home town is not even determined to be part and parcel of South Sudan unless we are kidding here like sending Mading Deng Majok to UN.
      We should be talking only about Wani Igga, Riak Machar and Pagan Amuum as the only three potential Candidates to pick from come SPLM convention if our president decides to heed to the plea by his comrades to step down. Nominating a presidential candidate from Bhar El Gazal will only infuriate other tribes for it will become a Dinka hegemony.
      Don’t mention Nhial Deng at all if you want to mention people for the sake of mentioning them, you will antagonize the people of Bhar El Gazal, you better mention people like Teller Ring from Lakes State.

      • Dan says:

        Dear Dear,
        I do not think there is any ground to stop someone from Bhar ghazel to contest in a presidential election. That decision should be left to the voters. That region is not homogeneous and it would be unfair to bar them. Most of them got nothing to do with the mess that has overshadowed President Kiirdit leadership. The president alone is to blame for allowing widespread corruption and daily murdering of innocent people. Let the democracy takes it course.

    • GatCharwearbol says:

      Anok Maketh,

      Dr. Riek has done everything humanly possible to reconcile the past wrondoings. He had already apologized to Bor just for the sake of our country gaining back the peace we all badly needed. Bad things have been done to Dr. Riek too and who is going to apologize to him?

      Dr. Machar went one step further to champion the national reconciliation to only be yanked out of it in the process by President Kiir. What more do you want the man to do? Every war that happened in South Sudan cannot be blamed on Dr. Riek, that won’t make any sense at all.

      Why not blame the rest of the commanders who have committed several crimes? Why single Dr. Machar out alone? There are many commanders who have done wrong and should be condemned just like we are doing to Dr. Machar. When are you going to start blaming Dr. John Garang for killing Gaajaak? Or it is not the same thing that happen to Bor?

  4. Dear Kuol B. Deng,
    Well said a bit in detailing of your article which is lacking with some good political representation based on your writing for nomination of the political representatives in the SPLM party. However, you have just crafted on their impositions for political bidding in South Sudan’s presidential running for awaiting 2015′s general election, especially if one is from whom will have liked to declare his ticket to run against the ours current President of the Republic of South Sudan, Gen. Salva Kiir Mayardit, whether independently or one should be nominated by the 2/3 of the majority SPLM party’s members.

  5. Gatkuoth Lok says:

    Many thanks indeed Mr. Bol for having straddled the political divide in a logical subjective-objective construction of your article.
    It is really expensive for south Sudanese to go for civil war, though it may not be a choice rather than necessity as long as Kiir shall be tempted to impose the unpopular regime working to reach its seemingly ultimate goal- unwelcome military rule to last for un-determinate years of ruling us since the permanent constitutional review is being slowed down in one way another to bring about the intended, and others.

    It seems that south Sudanese will not principally support leaders in the country simply because they belong to their respective tribes for nowadays they ask what practical consequences might conceivably result from their support to their tribes men/women who refuse for these good years in power to make any difference that can justify their stay or coming into power?

    It appears to me that change is vital though with corollaries that might be disastrous, yet relieving and expedient politically or else are deemed necessary evils tantamount to what Bol mentioned hardly to refute. Almost every intellectual agrees that democracy that allows competitive politics is healthy than the reverse, since the latter will work to ensure enmity amongst our people.

    South Sudanese intellectuals are much aware that failed politicians appeal to supports of their tribes claiming that people are removing them because they are from such and such a tribe and as such that is equal to hate the tribe, we the whole tribe. Such an appeal to people’s emotions is ridiculous if not nonsensical and absurd. Many thanks.

  6. simon peter says:

    These are the natural facts, one way or another it will end up in wars if president miscalculated that. However, the very lucky man in South Sudan, Is Kiir Mayardiit, who got chance because of Garang’s death. he won election in 2010 due to fact that we need only Independence of South Sudan, although he was not fit and incapable, inexperienced and many more.
    Now the guy became more dangerous than Jalaba, Insecurity, corruption, lack of developments no accountability in government. the Question is Dinka, they don’t fell ashamed of those activities.
    Are we going to reward him for third time for 10 more years? the best way to avoid this, you can choose anybody from South Sudan, not from your tribe although It would be hard for your people to bring a non-Dinka.

  7. Dan says:

    Dear Koul Bol Deng,

    First of all you are not an intellectual. So stop claiming it.
    Second, stop pretending to be a Dinka by using Dinka names.
    Your spelling of Kuol as Koul gave you away.
    Third Riek Machar is neither more popular than James Wani nor Pagan Amum. Riek without any doubt is more popular among the Nuer people. However, that tribal support alone can not secure for him the presidency.

  8. Jabu Konglie says:

    Dear writer,
    You elucidated your analysis clearly, but you fall short on these individuals, John Luk, Taban Deng, and James Hoth. What will not make them to win an election in 2015?

    • All what you said is not true. James hoth, taban deng and john lul, they are in this government all even if there is a mistake the constitution must allow any one of them be president of s sudan 2015. I hope salva kiir will win the election 2015 in the power of God. Or if there is anyone out this spring may be we shall vote for him/her. But of all those, I can’t agree except gen. salva kiir.

    • Achamke says:

      Please jabu, be careful for your appreciation the s.sudan is under regime of kiirdit not for those you are mentioning.

  9. Dan says:

    Continuation:-
    Fourth your man should do South Sudanese a favor by not asking for more than he deserves. He is already lucky enough to be a vice president of the country he helped the enemy to alienate its people during the war, thanks to the appeasement policy of president Salva Kiirdit.
    I remember as a young boy going to Ethiopia in the late eighties, there was only one town in the whole of our dear state of Jonglei which was under the enemy control and that was Mading (Bor Town) which was liberated some months later. All these achievements by South Sudanese sons who were mostly from Jonglei state were rolled back when a greed for leadership took best part of Riek Machar. It remains to be seen how much support this womanizer who took over some of women he killed their husbands during the split has in our state.
    Fifth your threat of violence as a way of propelling your man to the top position will not work. It was tried before with Northern backing but did not achieve its aim.
    Finally let you be reminded that if your wish comes true it will touch every inch of South Sudan and not just Jonglei state as it was the case in the past.

    • Dan:
      Mading (Bor Town) was not liberated by the brave sons of Bor/Jonglei alone. There were gallant soldiers from the Muonyjang/Jieng of the Greater Bhar El Ghazal and Padang in that fight too. Also the brave sons of Dinka Bhar El Ghazal helped in kicking Nyagats’ butts when they invaded Bor Town in 1992. Please don’t think like the elderly people of Bor who advised Dr. John Garang after the liberation of Mading Bor that he should not allow their children to die anymore since the liberation of South Sudan is completed. Dr. Garang laughed and told your grandparents that the liberation of South Sudan would not be completed until we capture Mading Awiel and Mading Achueng in Ngok. Please stop claiming the pride of struggle to your Bor/Jonglei alone.

      • Dan says:

        Lokudu Gatkuoth Garang,
        I have a great deal of respect for you. You are intelligent and not much of a tribalist as well. However, I beg to disagree with you over some of the things you said in response to my comments about this article. To begin with I would like to let you know that Jonglei state and Bor do not mean the same thing. The so-called Bor are not even the the largest ethnic group in this diverse and very beautiful state.
        It is a home of Lou, pandang, Gawer, Anyuak, Nyarweng, Murle, Twic, Hol,jie and maybe many more. It was comprised of four counties in the past namely Pibor, Bor, Akobo and Fangak and I must apologise in advance to those of Fangak for not mentioning them like I did to the rest. I could not work out the spelling so I gave up.
        So having made that bit of introduction about Jonglei state, I hope it is clear to you now that I was not only referring to what was Bor county comprised of Duks, Twic and Bor. The generation of my parents spoke various languages of Jonglei. I know I sound like Kokora promoters now and I must stop there. And as for the so-called brave Dinka Bahr ghazel, I will not respond to it. I hope you know the difference between bravery and barbarism, the difference between USA marines and alQaida or talabans.

        • Dan:
          I don’t comprehend or see any comparison between Dinka Bhar El Ghazal soldiers and those of Al Qaida, Talibans or USA marines. Would you please elaborate a bit or explain fully what kind of similarity you have observed between the people of Bhar El Ghazal, AlQaida, Talabans and USA marines? I will be glad to respond to you appropriately and promptly when I understand your intention.

  10. thank you very much Mr. Kuol Deng, for your article and statement. Those who are at war will get it without fail. Nuer, Equatorians and other minor or marginalized tribes in the country will fight very brave war this time. they will fight war against second Jalaba in south sudan. I will be very happy to die in that war of power struggling in 2014-2015.

  11. Nuer of 1991 are the same Nuer of 2015. all Nuer have been waiting for Riek Machar to say something in the country. everyone in south Sudan knows how Nuer are very brave in war. those who are supporting war are supporting their death. and we will not mourn for them. they will lose their lives and we will not compensate them.

    Nuer have got tired for a long time pondering and waiting but Riek Machar delayed them. war is a quick solution of prolonging talk. it is the right time now after south Sudan got independence for both tribal and political war. after war the very lasting peace, security, stability, unity, respect and comprehensive change will occupy the country, south Sudan.

    Dinka need Nuer when there is a war, so that nuer will go fight for them and defeat the enemy, they do not need nuer when the time comes for food and power. the nuer Nyagat, that Nyagat can not rule the country. the same policy applied by Khartoum Government, that Non-Muslim can not rule Muslim.

    • Jabu Konglie says:

      Chiengkueth,
      I think you are wrong on assertion that Nuer are brave in war, yes, it is true for the people to be worried. War has a reason, and, if, you ask yourself what is a reason for Nuer to go the war. Be advised that everyone or tribe is brave regardless of what, but you must have a reason for war, or ask yourself why. For Dr. Machar, he is not the VP of the South Sudan because he emanates from Nuer; simply, it is because he has skill that’s needed for a man to lead his nation.
      Importantly, Machar is not representing Nuer neither Kiir representing Dinka. The leader that we need in the S. Sudan is a one who must provide services not a tribe man. If Riek is a good leader, it is not because is a Nuer, he has a skill to lead. The same to Kiir if he fails to lead the nation, it not because he is Dinka. He has no skill to lead.
      My advice, let’s us not preach tribal politics, it is not going to take us anywhere.

      • GatCharwearbol says:

        Jabu Konglie,

        You are absolutely correct! To go to war, you must have something to fight for. Knowing what you are willing to die for is the first step you have to identify beforehand. But dying for no good cause is no bravery but stupidity at best.

        Nuer are not going to war in 2015 because of Dr. Riek Machar, but they will go to war based on what they have identified to be a worthy cause to die for. Only stupid Nuer will go to fight just for Dr. Riek Machar’s ego. On the campaign trail, Dr. Riek Machar will have to convince the people of South Sudan why we should elect him to the top position.

        If he manages to convince Nuer and majority of the other tribes and he is denied just that by robbing him out of ballots, this will be a viable reason for Nuer to go to war. Given that scenario, it will not only be Nuer to fight this war, but the entire supporters of Dr. Riek from all South Sudan’s tribes.

        But if he only manages to convince Nuer and fails the election without votes rigging, then Nuer people would have to be quite exceptionally stupid to go to war when Dr. Riek did not earn it.

  12. Koul Deng says:

    Dear Dan,
    Thanks very much for your comment. I thought in such a public forum, we need to give room to other people’s views and respect them in an intellectual manner. First, you don’t know me personally and by jumping to a conclusion that I’m not a Dinka is not logically acceptable.

    Secondly, by purporting that I’m not a Dinka simply because I criticize the system in relation to the corruption and didn’t mention that the president Kiir will win the election in 2015 doesn’t justify that I’m not a Dinka. I’m a Dinka from both maternal and paternal lineages. I had nothing much to do with both the president and the vice in terms of winning or failing the election. However, you seem to be supporting the president to the extent that you can sacrifice your life to him simply because of tribalism.

    We are all Dinka but you don’t support simply because of tribalism. We are left backward because of tribalism. I know some people support both sides for tribal reasons but that is not a good practice, we should denounce that. My advice to you is that try to abstain from direct criticism if you really want to be an intellectual and avoid attacking others merely because they have different views than yours.

    Even the way I spelt my name shouldn’t have been a problem for you to judge whether I’m a Dinka or not, “Kuol” and “Koul” are pronounced the same way and in English phonetics it is hard to differentiate such kinds of vowels in terms of sound. We wish all the best for our people and new nation. Long live the struggle of people of South Sudan, long live SPLA/M.

    • Dan says:

      Dear Koul Bol Deng,
      Please accept my sincere apology brother. I mistook you for some of those little tribalists who preach violence on this wonderful website. For your information brother, I am not one of those who glorify leaders based on tribal connections. Kiirdit leadership has been spoilt by primitive gangs who steal everything and kill innocent people without any shame. Ishakho , Chief Abiko Akuranyang and others , thanks for advice.

      • Gordon Rebel says:

        Dan, learn to be civilized by respecting other people’s views. Yes, you might be right to be defensive to Kiir’s govt, but be neutral as your color is being revealed already. The solvable solution will come when south Sudan citizens abandon defending their tribal leaders. I will stopped here…

  13. Dear brother Dan:
    There is no school and classes here in the forum. We are talking issues in all perspectives! But not correcting others on misspelling names and words! If Kuol had made an error on how he was spelling his name, there is no need for you to rebuke him. Everything he said in his written article, it is real, very true to the best of my knowledge and my understanding. He said it all!

    For me, I am keeping silent. I am just waiting for elections in 2015. Because right now, it is too early to make comments before action will take place!

    But for me, I don’t like tribal fighting to happen in the South Sudan,in the country. I need democracy in the government among South Sudanese people in general! Fighting ourselves will make people gain nothing! If there are problems in the country in the government in the South in the land, we can talk about them more peacefully as much as possible without letting blood out.

  14. Ishakho says:

    Dear Dan,
    What is wrong with that article? I’m convinced the author has a love for South Sudan. So let the concerned citizen express his views. am a Dinka but i will never vote for Kiir again. I will vote with my fellow people of Greater upper Nile.

  15. Andrew says:

    South Sudan’s very own “Nostradamus.” Interesting read, the below quote put everything in a nutshell for me.

    “It will be difficult for the ordinary citizens of South Sudan to differentiate between SPLA/M, their tribes and who will serve their interest given the lack of liberal education and political orientation among the majority.”

    • Koul Deng says:

      Yes, guys, your comments are very good. This is how intellectual debate takes place. We still have some tribalism in our bloods but it will take some time to clean that. We need to develop a sense of nationalism toward our nation. We are divided in terms of our loyalty. Some of us believe that their tribes are their nation which is quite wrong. But again, we are not the only people who have gone through that hard way. Even Europe in thirteen to seventeenth centuries had been through such situation where some races believed that they can dominate the whole world. For example, Hitler the Nazi leader in the Second World War believed that the Aryan race where he came from was the best. He invaded the whole Eastern an Western Europe and tried his best to invade England and France but finally defeated by the Americans when liberating Paris in the Second World War.

      We don’t want war or tribalism in South Sudan. We had enough. South Sudanese are good people by nature, they forgive, they are united and they can achieve a lot in Africa and the world, but we lack two things at this stage. We lack liberal education, by liberal education I’m mean a free thinker not restrained. We also lack a good leader to move forward and compete with the rest of the world. All these developed nations came up through good and hard working leaders, look at China, South Korea, India and others. They reached that level through good leadership that serves the interest of the nation not tribe. Tribe has no presence in this global world. Look at European multiculturalism, this is even more than tribes compared to our situation in Africa. Look how these people from different countries managed to form European Community (Union) with all its complexities and administrative structures.

      We are still fighting hard just to be part of a tribe! God save us. Well, it is not bad to be originated from a certain tribe, but again your tribe is not your nation, it is part of that nation. So you need to respect other tribes and give them chance to practice democracy and rule the country as well. If the next election is going to cause chaos in South Sudan, it is better to avoid both Kiir and Riek, South is important than all. South Sudanese should look for a new person. Someone who will unite and develop them as a nation not tribes.

      We are sick of tribalism and school education is not enough to get rid of tribalism, we need an education that reflects on the way we behave, the way we respect each other and the way we believe in humanity. We need cultured citizens not just class educated people which is not enough to qualify you as a global citizen or even a national of your own country. Many people blame Salva Kiir of all the mess that is happening in South Sudan, but believe me if Salva got good advisers he might do better. What do we expect South Sudan to be like if advisers of Salva are Deng Alor, Pagan Amum, Tilar Ring, Salva Mathok, Deng Athorbei, James Hoth and John Luk? Do you believe these people will give the president advices that serve the interest of the country rather than their own interests, though some of them are educated? Most of these groups are millionaires and where did they got these monies? It is public money.

      When we came back from the movement no body had million dollars but now these groups have in foreign banks not even contributing in the development of the nation. Because even if the money is stolen from the public funds, you need to invest that in the country… that way, God will forgive you as well as South Sudanese people who have suffered for ages and no body is listening to their agony.

      If Dr Garang was alive, at least this mess wouldn’t happen the way it is. I know he is a human being and has weaknesses as well as strengths, but he is administratively very vocal and strong, highly respected and with the vision he had he can save the South to a better position. Even Dr. Riek, though highly educated but couldn’t even make any changes in the corruption. He is faithful and intellectual but couldn’t manage the interest of South Sudan or even fight corruption because of weak leadership. So if he becomes the president, will he be able to fight corruption? I don’t think so.

  16. Dinka land says:

    Chiengkueth, stop tribalism. Which War did you fought? I am sorry to talk or write to you. Go back to khartoum with your uncle who came to splm recently in 2000s when cpa was about to be signed. Please you advice yourself with your tribesmen to stop begging war. Because it is not good totally. We know how to fight 100 times more than you but we don’t want war, we are tired of it, we fought with arabs and you militias. War is not good. South sudanese stop tribalism.

  17. To some extent are true. But if you predict the involvement of the Equatorians and people in WBGS in supporting Riek Machar, then you don’t talk of tribal war anymore.
    President is a very intransigent fellow who has been blinded by tribal sentiments.

  18. Akwat says:

    Mr. Kuol is very realistic in his analysis to the situation that’s facing the SPLM party in term of choosing who would be its candidate in 2015 election for the presidency. I think Kuol in his argument wants the Southerners to be aware or prepare to what their leaders in the SPLM are leading the country towards. So, if people of South Sudan would blindly be supporting their tribal leaders in the upcoming election 2015, it will be disastrous for the South Sudan; which no one of us wants our country to reach that stage of tribal war. Frankly speaking, the leadership of the SPLA/M is the main problem in our country.

  19. Dmajak says:

    To kuol, you had written good article and you deserve thanks. I personally give you more thanks and credits for all hard working for our homeland South Sudan. Don’t listen to what your critics say, but listen to what you think is for best of our country.
    There are millions of people who don’t like this current government, but they choose not to talk or complain about it for so many reasons. Some of our citizens feared for their lives. They do not want to die like Abraham Isaiah who was killed by government security. The other people are waiting for 2015 election and elect new government that will answer their problems. These people don’t like violence, but they can be be more dangerous if their voting rights are not respected according to the constitution of South Sudan. They can defend its by all means either by taking arms, street protest, ballot box and coup.
    we as people of South Sudan should blame ourselves for not acting urgently instead of playing.

  20. Dau-network says:

    My countrymen, to jump to conclusion war doesn’t favor any side. Does south Sudan belong to dinka and nuer? Why don’t we give others a chance instead of fighting each other?
    Because Nuer always easily to be militarized and Dinka can make plan B if Dr Riek won the election. Many people whose parents were killed can attempt a coup or assassination.
    If we know that, why not other Nuer like John Luk, Dr Marial, Taban Deng. Or one Dinka best to be Dr Majak d’Agoot.

    • makoy kuong says:

      @ Dau-network, your analysis about Dr Riek is unfounded and inciteful, let me remind you that those who think when Dr Machar become the President others will rebel, those are non predictable. let us see who will be those people in the first place. if you are preaching and reflecting the past atrocities caused during the war time, you are wasting your time. it was either side committed crime.
      I am a Nuer and i remember the suffering we had from the hands of Garang soldiers. let me ask you, are these inhuman acts caused by Garang’s troops on Nuer to be counted or what? if not then whose life is more important than whose? We need each other otherwise if you guys are hating us then no way, we should only look for possibility to change the country to be heading in the right channel.

      our country is a mess in the hands of Salva not because he is a Dinka but because he is incapable to build the country and this is why we need Riek to come not because he is a Nuer, it’s because we want him to try his best. if he fails we will bring in Wani Igga to try his best too because SPLM rules and objectives are very clear. they go systematically, first, second, third and goes like that.

      no jumping in the Party system. if Salva has weakness and definitely Dr Machar is likely to take us ahead, we should not turn it to be a tribal game where there is no position to play for the non-Dinka and this will take us to square 1 with its catastrophies.

  21. Simon Dahel says:

    Dear Kuol, you’re absolutely right on your article, but brother criminals or anti-peace always are against peaceful coexistence. South Sudan doesn’t deserve war at this time. We fought for many decades and we lost almost 4 to 5 million of lives, yet our politicians are not satisfied with the result of their action. Therefore, don’t forget that most of those who are commenting on your article may not all be intellectual. Let’s educate our people to preserve peace instead of war because the consequence of war will be far worst then expected. best regard, Simon

    • lual anguei deng says:

      dear all!

      i am here by acknowledging you that all your comments are rights but my problem is here, why innocent people let them be killed just only because others interest and why people quoted any problem into tribal conflicts.
      becuase if you see those who are accused of coup on 17/12/13 were not only nuer or dinka, these are collective group which their interest match together and they disagree in the meeting among themselves what make others to involve especial army which are suffering in all direction even if those who try coup win the coup, they can forget them.
      lual anguei deng

  22. South Mole says:

    Equatoria is sick and tired of Kirr and his thieving Dinkas. We’ll rather side with Dr. Machar than that illiterate son of Warrap. War won’t be our chocie but what the so-called “liberators” are doing deserves a massive and overwhelming response that will uproot them from the whole of Equatoria.

  23. umoja says:

    Dear All,
    The other time people named Elhaj Paul as a war monger, inciting tribalism, he is tribalistic and so so …… now that some Dinkas are realizing what Elhaj Paul has been stating here that you dinkas and Oyee party are going wrong, Elhaj has never given scenario of was but now war is being drummed up. Who is tribalistic and beating the drums of war? Elhaj Paul or Koul Bol Deng?

    Umoja

    • Koul Deng says:

      Dear Umoja,
      I’m deeply sorry. You have misunderstood the content of the article. I don’t know how you analyzed the purpose of this article. The article is not preaching war or encouraging people of South Sudan to start war based on tribes. It is a projection of what might happen if we are not careful as a nation. It just informs people to be aware of the situation and avoid war. There are better ways to avoid war if the intellectuals from South Sudan understand what they want …. public interest first and we must educate our people about unity and development of the nation.
      That is the message … so please don’t get confused brother… nobody is encouraging tribalism. You have just misunderstood the message. Many thanks
      Koul

  24. Kuot says:

    Lukudu Gatkuoth Garang, could you mentioned some of the officers or soldiers from Bhar el Ghazal who got killed in the capturing of MadingBor? dont forget to mention their battalions, companies, and platoons. It is misleading to assume that every town that was captured in South Sudan was captured by soldiers from Bhar el Ghazal. I am telling you most of the towns that were captured from 1984-6 were captured by brave sons of Dinka Bor alone. For example, Jekow, malual Gahoth, Boma, Pochalla, Winykibul, Yirol, Aluakluak, Terekeka, kiyla, Mongala, Madingbor, etc. Dinka Bor was the majority in frontline fought in Equatoria and Jonglei from 1983-1988 when the population from Bhar el Gazal increased highly in the SPLM/A.
    Throughout the war, Dinka Bor continued to maintain the position of second majority in the SPLA until the CPA was obtained. Imagine, Dinka Bor is currently three counties with a population of about 270,000 people. Bhar el Ghazal is currently 4 states with a population of a couple millions. The bottomline is no single major district of greater Bhar el Ghazal has sacrificed in the past war like Dinka Bor. The sacrifice of Dinka Bor is competing with the sacrifice of greater Bhar el Ghazal. the records of all the battalions that were dominantly sons of Dinka Bor are present including the towns they captured. Those battalions that were dominated by Dinka from bhar el Ghazal, Nuer, Equatoria, and Nuba are also present. Any person who tries to twist history will simply be proven wrong.

    • Kuot:
      This is exactly what Nuer call “Pelpel Jieng,” which means the smartness of Dinka. Claiming something you haven’t done it alone is a sin and misleading. Late Kerubino Kuanyin Bol from Twic Mayardit County of Bhar El Ghzal fired the first shot of the Liberation of ROSS in Mading Bor on May 16th,1983. Late Kerubino Kuanyin Bol was seriously wounded in that initial attack in Bor but he successfully managed to escape alive. The gallant sons and daughters of Bhar El Ghazal and other South Sudanese joined the SPLA movement in 1983 and had been fighting against the Arabs since then. If Dinka Bor had fought and captured all those areas alone from 1983 to 1988, Where were Dinka Bhar El Ghazal and other South Sudanese soldiers?

      Do you know that Commander Mager Aciek from Bhar El Ghazal had liberated Mading Bor when it was invaded by Riek Machar’s Nyagat forces in 1992? Commander Mager Aciek went to Mading Bor with 2000 soldiers from Bhar El Ghazal to liberate Bor from Nyagats/White Army in 1992. I wonder, if your claim of liberating those areas is correct and valid. Why would you liberate all those areas from the Arabs by yourselves and yet you were unable to liberate your own home Town, Mading Bor from Nuer?

      Kuot, (Bor) I totally understand your frustration with the Muonyjang of Bhar El Ghazal because you participated in the liberation of South Sudan and did not get the opportunity to fulfill what you love the most, Rule people, as your Uncle stated in the past that Bor people are born to rule. Brother, you must learn how to share the leadership of South Sudan with other South Sudanese.

      In 1972, your Uncle Abel Alier snatched the leadership of the High Executive Council from General Joseph Lagu although he did not deserve to have it. Your Uncle Abel Alier did not participate in Anyanya 1 movement however, due to Pelpel Bor, Alier was able to grab the leadership from General Joseph Lagu. This kind of behavior and Pelpel Bor (Bor smartness) may not work again in our life time in the Republic of South Sudan. You must accept and learn how to rule and be ruled by others otherwise you will be restricted to ruling yourselves alone in Mading Bor.

      • Domac says:

        Pelpel de Lukudu Gatkuoth Garang, Mager Achiek was not the commander of 1200 troops nor Bhar El Ghazal sodiers, that carried on an attack in Malek at 01:00 am and captured Mading Bor at 06:00 am, on the same date 26/11/1991. I know this very well. Please do another research on that. don’t rely too much on hearsay.

        • Domac:

          You were somewhere in the refugee camps in East Africa when the gallant soldiers of Bhar El Ghazal under the leadership of Commander Nicola Mager Achiek went and liberated Bor from Nuer in 1992. Please do more research and get back to me ASAP with the proof or name a Bor commander who led the troops in the battle for liberation of Bor in 1992. Please stop claiming a pride of something you have not done it alone. I know you Bor people need the Muonyjang of Bhar El Ghazal only for the military protection and political votes.
          Brother, the Muonyjang of Bhar El Ghazal are becoming more smarter than you and will never be used or accept Pelpel Bor at this time unless you change your attitude towards other people in South Sudan…Period… The time of Pelpel Bor (Bor Smartness) is long gone and outdated. Smart up Boys and respect others otherwise you will be outcast.

          • Domac says:

            Mr Garang, we are not going to talk back and forth, to be clear to you I was there at that night when the Sons of Dinka Bor overrun Mading (Bortown). Mading Bor was captured on 26/11/1991, not 1992 as you claim. there were no nyagats in Mading in 1992, excepted when the Khartoum government forces defeated Koryom 2 in Yomchiir and captured Mading Bor in April 1992.
            you said, I quote, “Dinka Bor needs military protection and votes from Muonyjang of Bhar El Ghazal.” well, we don’t need (…majority) to protect us. we are capable to protecting ourselves from any aggressors. in voting, yes Dinka Bor need ballots from all the South Sudanese people not Dinka Bhar El Ghazal alone.
            Mr Garang, are you sure Dinka Bhar El Ghazal are more smarter than Dinka Bor? Dinka Bhar El Ghazal are patsies, how they can be smarter than Dinka Bor. let me I assure you that prides are our commitments. we do the job to the best and prides for it. we are never been jealous for other community commitment whether in the war or leadership.
            Garang, you are from Lakes state according to my Analysis based on your articles. next time make comparison between Dinka Bor and Lakes state. I will be laughing.

      • Kuot says:

        lukudu gatkuoth Garang, your name alone is indicative of the pelpel you are talking about.
        my friend, i can prove you a liar 100 times. Because i have all the information about both the contribution of Dinka Bor and Bhar el Ghazal. Mind you, Karubino was a commander of 105 battalion which was composed of men from Dinka Bor. Karubino himself knew he was rescued & evacuated by sons of Dinka Bor, otherwise he could have died of that wound if he was in hands of your careless people.

        For your information, Jebel Boma was liberated by Agrab (scorpion) battalion which was dominated 99% sons of Dinka Bor in 1985. Jekow and Malual gahoth were liberated for the first time by Raad (thunder) and Cobra Battalions which were 99% sons of Dinka Bor. MadingBor, Winykibul, Terekeka were liberated by Zindia, Raad, and Cobra Battalions which were 99% sons of Dinka Bor. Yirol, Aluak, Akot, and Thiet were liberated by Rhino Battalions which 99% sons of Dinka Bor. These Battalions were all from Koryom Brigade which were 99% sons from Dinka Bor.

        “Where were Dinka Bhar El Ghazal and other South Sudanese soldiers?” this is a good question but you learn to ask questions without insulting the person who will give you the answer.

        For your information, people from Bhar el Ghazal began to fight after Muormour Brigade was graduated. Tuektuek and Nile Battalions arrived in bhar el gazal toward the end of 1986. they were later joined by Eagle, Zalan, Gergeer, Maniir, Sonki battalions etc.These Battalions captured a few smaller towns in Bar el gazal but most of their times were wasted because there were no enough ammunitions to intensify the war in the center of the country where arms reinforcement were very rare. Niran Battalion and Bee battalion and half of Agrab Battalion attacked & captured Kapoeta in 1987 for the first. These battalions were dominated by men from bar el gazal. You can claim these victory if you like. Pibor was captured by combinations of Koryom and Zalzal battalions which were composed of men from Bar el gazal, Bor, Nuer, Equatoria. Torit was also captured by combinations of Battalions from Koryom, Muormuor, Kazuk, and Zalzal.

        The battle in which you refer to Mager Aciek went like this. Nasir faction soldiers attacked civilians villages in Bor. Most of the young men from Bor were fighting in Juba and other places as i mentioned. the first commander sent to stop the Nasir faction was william Nyuon, he lost that battle. the second person was Majak Agoot and lost that battle again. the third forces were Mobile Forces who were brought from Bar el gazal, they lost that battle against the Nuer from Nasir faction. So Nasir faction defeated all the forces that were sent by the SPLM/A Torit faction. So it is not Dinka Bor alone who lost that war. It was the SPLM/A who was in control of Bor areas.

        Don’t forget that Dinka Bor sons returned later from Equatoria, bar el gazal, and upper Nile to liberate their homeland. they managed to kill Kwach Kang who was the commander of the forces who committed massacres in Bor. So Dinka Bor have never been afraid to fight Arab or any other traitors who liaised with the enemy. you just don’t know us. please, learn the right history. don’t rely on Bhar el gazal as a region. look at the nature of sacrifice.

  25. Domac says:

    You are right, Kuot, Dinka Bor made big sacrificed during war time, I recall Bootluk ke diak, you can tell in Koryom 1 and Koryom 2 divisions were all pure Dinka Bor. Koryom 1 opened gateway for struggle by capturing many garrisons and Koryom 2 took defensive side against nyagats and Mujahidden from 1991-4 in jonglei state, central and eastern equatoria. in 1995 mobil forces of Bol Madut came with big reinforcement and SPLA regained momentum and managed to recapture many towns in equatoria and lakes state from 1995-2002. let’s leave this story behind and focus on our country’s development.

  26. umoja says:

    Koul Deng
    The issue is not that I misunderstood you, the question is others like Elhaj Paul, Tongun…etc… when they give their taking or projection of South Sudan political situation, dinkas are quick to call names (tribalistic, inciting people, encouraging war), but when you dinkas are the ones giving projections as you did is not a tribalist, war mongers… name it.

    There we are in south Sudan, if the tribalistic leader and visionless leader like Kiir is being supported by majority of dinkas, where do you think this country is going? Soon or later the fruits of Kirr (dinka) rule will be reaped.

    Umoja

    • Koul Deng says:

      You are really funny… you made me laugh. Things will change, brother, have faith in the Lord who created you. People of South Sudan have suffered so much under Jalaba we don’t want leaders like Kiir to continue doing the same and the worst thing is that he is doing it for his own people that he claimed to be liberating them one day in the history of liberation movement SPLA/M.
      Now for those who have wisdom, who is our enemy, Jalaba or Kiir at this stage?
      But another thing to add is that not all Dinka are bad, don’t generalize them because of one man’s sin. One day a very good leader will come from the Dinka and when compared to Kiir there will be a big gap.

      • Kuol Deng:

        Our Equatorian brothers believe that the Good Dinka is the dead one. They never liked Dr. John Garang until his untimely death. If Dr. John Garang was about to be buried alive in Equatoria, they wouldn’t have allowed him to be buried there. Therefore Umoja and his likes has no regard or sympathy for you nor for your great article unless you die and they would call you a great writer. In additions, the same feeling applies to the Nuer/Naath people too. In the eyes and hearts of Our Equatorian brothers, the Good Nuer is the dead one or the one who has moved to Gambella, Ethiopia for good. So please don’t waste your time, attempting to persuade those idiots and heartless people.

        • South Mole says:

          Gatkuoth Garang,
          Put in your mind that Equatorians have no problems with Nuers. The Nuers and Equatorians are brothers and as such both groups will work together to ensure Dr. Machar to succeed in his ambition to be president. Nuers are not the ones occupying our lands in Nimulue, Yei and Equatoria. It is the Dinka, that is why Equatorians hate Dinkas. Garang, you’ll never drive a wedge between Nuers and Equatorians. This time there’ll be no Arab or Equatorians to protect you!

  27. Alphonse Kenyi says:

    Dear Mrs. or Mr. Kuot, sorry for not telling your gender.
    I would like to rebut your claim that Dinka Bor liberated Terekeka. First of all i did not know that was Dinka Bor who committed massacre in Mundari land. if that is true, I am more than elated because now I know who committed the massacre in Mundari land in 85 and 86. For the record, when SPLA entered Terekeka in 1985, there was no Army garrison leave alone Jalaba forces.
    Based on the negative propaganda of radio SPLM/A toward Equatorians at the time, Citizens of Terekeka town decided to evacuate it temporarily to prove otherwise including myself at the time. I was a freshmen in Alexandria University. What happened afterward is left for history to tell it because we are not people of revenge.
    Please revise your knowledge because it was documented by international media including the BBC.

    • Kuot says:

      Kenyi, how did you know there were no Arabs in Terekeka while you were a freshman in Alexandria university, Egypt? For your information, SPLM/A used to write letters and send security agents to post the letters on the trees inside or in the outskirts of the town. the messages were usually meant to notify south Sudanese to evacuate town because the SPLA will attack the towns within a few days/weeks. most of the south Sudanese who ignored those warnings were attacked together with their Arabs friends. I believe that’s how your people ended up as victims. Kenyi, your claim that Arabs were not in Terekeka in 1985 is hard to believe because Arabs were in Mangala and Bor while Terekeka is in between the two towns. Maybe there was no gov’t forces when you left for your studies but things changed after behind you. Arab government began to deploy forces almost every where in south Sudan to deny the SPLA chances of attacking bigger towns.

      For your information, Mandari people were hostile to the SPLM/A soldiers in the first years of the movement. Some Mandari people used to go to Arab soldiers and lead them to attack the camps of the SPLA. numerous Soldiers were killed by the Arabs in surprise attacks. that caused problems between the SPLA and youth of Mandari. That misunderstanding was resolved by the leadership of SPLM/A and Mandari youth began to join the SPLA in numbers in 1988-91.

  28. RanNaath NGudeng Bong says:

    my people you will not die, GOD is your protector and something good will happen before that time. so don’t predict against yourself. Ngudeng Bong

    • Amen!…. Praise be to the prophet Ngundeng, peace be upon him. Whoever believes in Ngundeng shall believe in God who made him a prophet in the land of South Sudan. Ngundeng is a true prophet for all the people of South Sudan and through him will get rid of tribalism, thievery and corruption in Juba. May the Nhialic (GOD) of Ngundeng bless the people of South Sudan!

  29. Marko mawien says:

    Fighting is not new, it’s new for those who have run away during the war like my brother, south mole. you are cooking the food which you don’t know who is going to eat. goodness, you are not there in southern Sudan if you are there you will regret man.

  30. Marko mawien says:

    Thank you very much, ngudeng bong, for advice.

  31. Gordon Rebel says:

    I can give credit to the person who wrote this articulate article and I believe, he deserves credit from all of us through his analytical predicted ideas about what will happen toward and after 2015 election. Yes, we need to change our tribal affiliations as a way to transform this new born nation. Well, with regard to article writer who predict the possible war during 2014-2015 due to Kiir and Riek election result, yes he absolutely predicted it right due to the nature of our society as many individuals still associated their political motive based on where they come from. As new comrade to SPLM party and signed a peace with government days ago, I need to share this with you, but I swallowed it back. To share my view with all of you, and if we need to change this society, we need someone who is educated and has crossed the line of tribal affiliation which become Kiir policy to run this new nation and almost/has dragged our country’s development and delayed our services delivery.

    To choose our new leader, that person would be from any tribe and he/she wouldn’t be granted to come from either Nuer/Dinka, but from anywhere. Let’s wait for war if Kiir would miscalculate to carry on corruption for another five years’ term and will bizarrely fail to give chance to those who have minds and have little allergy to corruption.

    • Koul Deng says:

      Hi Gordon,

      The president won’t accept the idea of conducting a fair election immediately in 2015. He will delay it for a while and also the SPLM/A convention won’t be held on time due to the fear that other SPLM/A members might contest. Mr President is paranoid, he doesn’t trust people around him any more and even in the long run he may doubt his advisers’ ideas. The president will work hard to gain a huge support within SPLM/A to guarantee the next term and his excuse is that the time wasn’t enough to enact development in South Sudan though $ 4 billion US has been embezzled from the public money.

      This time the oil revenues will be used to bribe people in the villages across all South Sudan through president’s agents in those areas, Upper Nile, Bentiu, Bahr EL Gazal and Equatoria. Parliament members will be used to extend that support in their constituencies because they also want to remain in their positions. However, some development will be seen in Juba the capital in terms of roads, schools, hospital, some services and agriculture in some areas and most of the villages will still be backward except for some mini development.

      The president will be a bit serious about corruption this time to win public support but may not be able to get rid of it as it is a virus which is hard to control. So he will take over the top position again but may be not immediately in 2015 because of that wrangling which becomes an issue among SPLM/A circles. Probably in 2017 that step may take place after delaying the convention and the election. He will reshuffle his cabinet and appoint ministers from different tribes as usual to avoid criticism and tribes management as the president is managing tribes’ interests and not government’s, however he will mainly focus on upgrading his clan. “when we talk about the clan here it doesn’t mean the Dinka as a tribe just his Gogrial area and not everybody in that area, only those who are close to him will benefit in terms of businesses, positions and social status.

      Because it becomes obvious and shameful, the president and his team will work hard to win the support of Equatoria which is not bad at least for democracy to prevail. They will facilitate for the coming of a vice from Equatoria. People will be confused and nobody will be tough on them and divide and rule policy will be used and most citizens of South Sudan will be busy struggling to improve their living standards.

      After that it will be a war of classes, those who got the money and those who do not have. Politicians from Dinka, Nuer and Equatoria will still be using tribalism as a way of getting support from citizens who are tired of that song all the time since South Sudan got its independence in 2011, and the gap between the poor and the rich will increase.

      Foreigners will control the market as it is obvious now and the west will invest indirectly in minerals. It will be like CONGO, rich in minerals but still the poorest country in the globe. In 2020 Kiir will leave the seat and will prepare someone whom he trusts and a SPLM/A member, he will contest and other political parties as well get involved in the competition. Most of them will be in their 70s including the former president Kiir and his former Vice Dr Riek. But some will die due to natural causes sickness, diabetes, blood pressure and unknown diseases including stress and heart attack and few with HIV.

      In 2020 Kiir will be in power for nearly 15 years OMG. Those who are in their twenties will be thirties and thirties will be in mid forties and those in mid forties will be sixties getting old not seeing any fruits of freedom in South Sudan or even enjoyjng their country. The main social structure will be division of classes in South Sudan based on wealth and tribes, “Money plus tribalism”.

      All rebels will be integrated except some few who will decide to remain there like Yau Yau but others will join though they won’t be strong enough to challenge the government. People like Yau Yau will be assassinated through conspiracy and a deal will be achieved through his own tribesmen. What next. The third generation will come up who are roughly 18-25 years of age now and will struggle to implement democracy, a concept which nobody is quite sure of what it is when the west will always say that is not democracy. At that time South Sudan will be like Nigeria in terms of development but as most of the African nations corruption will still be there in wanton.

  32. Dan says:

    Gordon Buay/ Gordon Rebel,
    why joined the Splm instead of transforming your Ssla into a political party if you think it is a corrupted party?

  33. Naath Nuer says:

    Answer is simple and a fact, South Sudan will be in peace or development unless Nuer and Dinka, one of them is put down by force. Then strongest tribe can led country for their own way. That was happen in Rwanda 19 yrs ago. We all knew it.

  34. wutkuoth says:

    It is clearly coming to elections in south Sudan, there will be civil war between two tribes, especially Dinka and Nuer. They will resume their war without delay. South Sudan will have peace until these two tribes are going to finish their war. This is mass everyone witnessed.

  35. kiir me camran says:

    suggestion comrades. our leadership in Juba fail. second to that, too many killings around everyday. Can i remind you what happened in kakuma in 1996. 10,000,000 nuer men fight with 1 million Dinka .if am wrong go back to record ………………………………….

    the nuer of today are not like those of 1980 wherby and mistakes of Gen Tang and others will not happen in Nuer.

  36. Baidit says:

    Dear all,
    It’s clear that nuer and dinkas want to go back to war by 2015; but please! be advised that this time equatorians will not allow it to happen in their area. You guys can go and finish your problems in your areas and equatoria will not accommodate any refugee or allow any body to cross to kenya or uganda because whoever wants war should not run.

  37. David says:

    Well, Dr Machar needs to be forgiven and he has the right to turn these messes and corruption around, there is no need to rally behind someone who can not fixed things and not even learned from public outcry. if we stick on someone who can not make his judgement and do what the nation required of him, then we are wasting our time and energy.

    We have tried this man. however it is not our problem if he can not perform his national duties effectively and efficiently. Now it is time to try Dr machar whether he can be able to deliver the services that public longs for, in my point of view, Dr machar can renew this old engine to move the car to the right direction (i e the New Nation). the reasons for my recommendations of Dr machar are as follows:

    Dr machar has the ability
    1: to improve the economy of the country
    2. to restore peace and repair bad corruptions image of the new nation
    3 to introduce and implement transparency of resources allocation to each state in South Sudan.
    4. to improve and promote health, education and equal employment opportunities to all South Sudanese.
    5 to establish better infrastructures in ten states in South Sudan.
    6 with his competency and educational backgrounds, Dr machar is able to respect the South Sudan constitutions in consultation with cabinet, MPs and National assembly.

    • Domac says:

      Mr David, you are barking. where did you get Mr Machar’s campaign booklet or highlight of his campaign strategy. or you just made it up? don’t put yourself into his shoes, pretending to be his campaign manager.

  38. ahmed says:

    well said

  39. Naath Nuer says:

    Look, a person who doesn’t even know how to swims can lead people who know how to swim. Better to move no swimmer aside and let people know a swimmer leads the swimming learner. my personality I don’t support person who block people because of lack swimming. Like to teach that person how swim because he/she can be like the rest of the people. I believe that our nation leadership set up wrong in first place. I know we are failing to do the job even though one man lead us into failure. The question is who is blamed here? Is it the west or ourselves?

  40. werkaroa Mathews says:

    To every one, please, stop preaching the tribal war in South Sudan. those who’ve hidden themselves in diaspora will not suffer, but only the persons who are now in the big shit and the big mess of Salva kiir Mayardit and his Robbers will suffer the consequences, but we will go for popular uprising like Arabs countries in the middle East if Dr.Salva Kiir (PHD in Honuris causi) from Great lakes of Kisumu-Kenya) doesn’t give chance to Democratic elections in 2015.

    I don’t care who is coming next president, whether Dr. Riek Machar, or Wani igga, Kuol Manyang Or Pagan Amum but Dr.Salva Kiir must go out by 2015.

    sent by Mathews werkaroa -Lou Nuer young man in the middle of bush in Yuai payam/.Wuror County-Jonglei State

    • Bassiouni Agamiri says:

      I didn’t know Salva has a P.Hd.

      The biggest reason for the long civil war was that the south was marginalised by the north, which excluded southerners from real political power and used the south’s wealth for Khartoum’s gain… We’re in charge of our own destiny now, what are our leaders doing? Nothing but creating chaos and hate amongst our own childern – Dinka against Nuer or Bahr al-Ghazal against the current administration.

      Let’s just start something similar to Hutu and Tutsi war and start OVER. The world is laughing at us to be honest and I am ashamed to be part of this mess.

  41. anyang lual says:

    Ok mr article writer, you have done what is necessary of you but let me tell what you have missed. When you talk in such crucial discussion you don’t predict the worst but you are supposed to preach the way to light despite of difficulties our country is undergoing. so we’d team up together and try to solve our problems in peace as the saying goes, ‘when two bulls fight the green grass suffers or there will be dust eruption and it might be choking.’

  42. GatCharwearbol says:

    Mr. Kuol Deng:

    Tribal war is already in existence. Nuer and Dinka have been fighting over cattle for so long even before the birth of The Republic of South Sudan. Thus, tribal war is not new. It has been there and it will not come to cessation any time soon or in our life time.
    If it will die away, which I seriously doubt, it will be some hundred years to come. But rest assured that with this current era of ICC, whoever incites war between our tribes will easily be taken to The Hague to answer for why innocent lives are lost.
    In reality, I think that many of our politicians are afraid of war since they know very well that ICC is monitoring closely their activities. At this point, I would not worry too much about tribal war.

  43. Bassiouni Agamiri says:

    So far, however, independence has not proved to be the panacea that South Sudanese were hoping for. The only difference is that this time there’s no one to blame for their problems but themselves – which, I suppose, is the point..

    We can make the argument all day, whether Salva, Machar, or whoever has the ability to lead to win the 2015 election. Overall, we need a strong, visionary leader (from Upper Nile, Juba, Wau or Dinka region) that’s willing to put in the necessary hard work to reap the eventual rewards. This doesn’t square with my impression of the current government, which like the country, is still finding its feet. Bureaucracy and red tape are a nightmare, and petty corruption is rife. More damaging is the evident lack of coordination between different ministries, and the lack of defined roles. This leads to infighting and power struggles, and means that actually getting things done is a long, difficult and arduous process.

  44. marko mawien says:

    yes, bros, you are not correct by the way because the land is not for Dinka & nuer. we know really the land is for us the people of Equatoria, Dinka, nuer, etc because the other tribes within south Sudan, this land belong to them. But let me tell you one thing, no war again between Dinka and Nuer.

  45. Andrew poth says:

    Dear reader
    i think Bol he is right, he just wants to know how people will react and also he did mention very important point about what will be more likely to happen if things are not handled properly. I’m Nuer myself but i wouldn’t support machar because he is nuer fellow, he has to get his policies right before i would actually cast for him.
    let me tell you my fellows citizens if vote someone because he from your tribe, you are make the matter worse for you and your fellows citizen. so for me to vote for the candidate that were mentioned by Boul i would make sure his policy will deliver good outcome for all level of government. No way i would embrace bad policy which is based on personal interests. if you have a a good policy to deliver all these essentials including hospital, clean water, better, roads, then you will have my vote because those one are the stuff people need.

  46. Let us not depend on talking about others while we have our problems in south Sudan. South sudan has been reported as one among failed states in Africa ranking number four because of corruption of the ministers, parliamentarians, governors and up there.

  47. Dear All,

    What you have all said seems to be true but let’s rememmber that we are all of one mother in the land South Sudan which let us lost our relatives during the civil war and because of this there is no need for us killing ourselves since we are one . Back to the issue of 2015 elections, let’s not spoil our future by being involved in the politics while we are young. It is our time to do that but the best thing for us is look for the way we shall change our country in term of development and education. Corruption is something unavoidable in the world. All in all, let’s not insult our leaders, someone who insults his/her ruling leader is like a person offending a crocodile in the mid of river while crossing.

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