To IGAD, AU and Troika: Time to Call off Addis Peace Talks & Declare Regime Change in South Sudan

By: J. Nguen, Commentator, analyst & advocate, FEB/14/2018, SSN;

The question today isn’t whether the Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (ARCISS) be revived or not, but rather, it’s whether those who invariably refuses the resuscitation of the agreement must be punished and held to account.

We know for certain that the ARCISS had collapsed on July 8th, 2016, when Dr. Riek Machar was violently pushed out of Juba in what many analysts characterized as a “well-organized assassination” attempt on the life of a man who came to Juba to implement the peace agreement.

We also know that the regional (IGAD) and the USA Administration under former president, Barack Hussein Obama, sided with President Kiir’s regime and placed Dr. Machar under house arrest in South Africa. These are tried cases, but hit dead end.

As a matter of fact, these desperate moves were falsely intended as shortcuts to end the contradictions and bring unfounded peace in South Sudan.

Without any doubt, these fraudulent efforts failed in earnest. Instead, suffering worsened and civil war spread like a wildfire across South Sudan.

In addition, for a year and half, President Kiir was licenced to rein terror on the lives of innocent South Sudanese –free hand; while the world watched on in deafening silence with no condemnations even on moral ground.

Uganda’s President Y. K. Museveni went as far as congratulating Salva Kiir for killing innocent South Sudanese. What a world!

Because of these hopeless contradictions, thousands of innocent of South Sudanese died in the mix. And this is tragic when a rogue regime is unleashed and left unchecked.

In this regard, Salva Kiir’s regime went on rampage, murdering, raping, displacing and destroying innocent South Sudanese’s lives and properties in this unscrupulous world of paradoxes.

After a year of extreme bloodshed, when no news was a good news, when facts there were news of mass murders, raping, displacement and destruction of properties in South Sudan. When hope was so far and beyond reach.

Then, by default, President Donald J. Trump came to power in 2017 in US. Remarkably, President Trump saw the appalling flights of innocent souls in South Sudanese, in an unforgiving million ways and in unforgivable world.

Then, President Trump, moved on moral grounds, sent his top ambassador, Nikkie Haley to south Sudan to see developments, first hand. Amb. Haley was so disgusted and appalled by the flights of decomposing South Sudanese in IDP camps inside the country and in the refugee camps in the neighboring countries.

Like any sane and moral human being, Haley was taken aback by the narrated stories and experiences shared by the victims concerning Salva Kiir’s “scorched earth policy” of ethnic cleansing on all tribes in South Sudan with the exception of Dinka, where Kiir belongs.

For Trump’s administration, this experience revealed the ugly side of Kiir’s regime, and the fact that Kiir doesn’t care about the life and suffering of South Sudanese. This revelation changed the course of President Trump’s administration and its approach toward the civil war in South Sudan.

As a result, President Trump through Amb. Haley, endorsed the resuscitation of the collapsed Peace Agreement in South Sudan in the name of High Level Revitalization Forum under IGAD.

As a result, on the 21st of December 2017, the Cessation of Hostility and unfettered Humanitarian Access Agreement was signed in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. However, before ink went dry, President Kiir violated the agreement by sending his lieutenants and First Vice President, Taban Deng Gai on offensive in Upper Nile, Unity and Jonglei States.

As a result, thousands of civilians were displaced. And as I write, this violation continues, which in many ways showcase that Kiir and his lieutenants in crime can never be persuaded peacefully.

Despite Kiir’s intransigence, on February 5th, 2018, the High Level Revitalization Forum begun. The aim of the talks is to ensure that peace returns and prevails in South Sudan so suffering of people ends.

However, because President Kiir is so removed from the reality, so stubborn, and the fact that he does not care and fear no one, his troops continued to violate the Cessation of Hostility and restricted humanitarian access to the needy.

Not only that, the regime has arrogantly refused to follow through with the rules of the talks, by overcrowding the venue with un-commissioned personalities just to show defiance and arrogance.

To make matters worse, Kiir gave a middle finger to the IGAD, African Union, EU and Troika by refusing to sign the Declaration of Principles (DoP) for the talks.

Kiir’s delegation refused to sign the DoP on the ground that article 28 on the DoP, which states that “punitive measures” be taken against anyone found to be obstructing the implementation of the peace agreement, is unnecessary and not needed.

In this regard, in my view, this is a fine and explicit defiance and test case for IGAD, AU and the Troika countries. It’s also a serious indication that Salva Kiir is not committed to any peaceful political settlement aimed to end South Sudan’s conflict.

Furthermore, the regime has today sentenced Mr. James Gatdet Dak, former spokesman of Dr. Riek Machar to 20 years life in prison and death by hanging. Note, this is happening while the region and the world is searching for peace to return to South Sudan.

Without any doubt, these undertakings by Salva Kiir are aimed to derail any chance for peace in South Sudan. Salva Kiir rendered peace talks underway in Ethiopia irrelevant and useless.

The question now is, why do we bother for something considered dead on arrival by one party to the conflict? Is this not waste of time and of scarce resources?

In my honest opinion, moving forward with High Level Revitalization Forum is irrelevant, at this point. Therefore, what must be done moving forward, and to make sure that Salva Kiir listen, is a declaration of regime change agenda.

The prospect of the High Level Revitalization Forum succeeding is highly minimal and limited. Salva Kiir’s regime has made it very difficult and revealed that he will not respect it.

With all these signs written on the wall, it’s time for the world at large to change course and abandon this delusional view that Salva Kiir and cohorts might change their minds.

President Kiir believes in military Solution and will not change his mind any time soon, comes rain or sunshine.

As such, I proposed the following grand strategies and options to achieve desirable peace and positive outcomes for conflict in South Sudan:

1. That IGAD, AU, European Union and the Troika countries should immediately suspend peace talks in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. It’s rather useless to force a donkey to drink when all the indications showed his/her unwillingness.

2. That Troika countries, European Union and the African Union must convene an urgent meeting of “coalition willing” with the Islamic Republic of Sudan, and requests the Khartoum authorities to immediately suspend transportation of South Sudan’s crude oil through its territories. In return, the Troika countries, EU, IGAD and the African Union will divert all the necessary aid.

3. That IGAD, EU, AU and the Troika countries must immediately impose more targeted individual sanctions and travel ban on South Sudan government officials including President Salva Kiir himself and First Vice President Taban Deng.

4. That IGAD, European Union, African Union and the Troika countries must suspend all diplomatic ties with Juba immediately.

5. That Troika countries, EU, IGAD and the AU must immediately impose blanket armed embargo on the Government of South Sudan and suspend all financial support both military and bilateral cooperation with any Eastern and Northern Africa country found to be supporting or colluding with Salva Kiir regime, even remotely.

6. That Troika countries, EU, AU and the IGAD must overwhelmingly support military “regime change” as the only option to depose Kiir regime from power.

These must be the options to walk away with. Because, under the current political configuration in South Sudan, the region’s stability is under serious threat. Under Salva Kiir’s regime, the region is unlikely to be stable.

Evidently, South Sudan is currently a hotbed for the Al-Shahab’s financiers. Secondly, South Sudan Government is harboring and supporting Ethiopian and the Sudanese negative forces -the rebel groups.

Therefore, with these indisputable facts, it’s imperative to note that “REGIME CHANGE” in South Sudan is ONLY the best option. It will bring needed peace in South Sudan and stability to the region.

J. Nguen is a South Sudanese political commentator, analyst and advocate living aboard. He can be reached at jamesnguen@gmail.com

26 Comments

  1. Dhong says:

    J.Nguen
    Your points are clear but be reminded it is hard to do away with Kiir if these rebel leaders have not changed their tribal mindset.International bodies like EU and regional bodies such as IGAD are aware of Riek tribal agenda behind his objective for regime change.Change of president kiir goverment by forced is lengthening of political impunity in south sudan.

  2. Malouda says:

    Go away you are a rebel you are not clear the change need the national leader not your tribal leaders rebels you mean or even the current ruling leaders. God will bring to us the really leader who concern about his/her citizens not like your leaders whom their interests are their pockets only.

    • Mor-amook says:

      Dear Malouda, I totally agree with you. Not everyone support Kiir administration, but we don’t want our country to end up in mess like what happened in Libya. We want our leaders to first bring peace. The people of South Sudan know all the current leaders in government and rebellion, it is only the people of South Sudan who can make different, if they are given chance to vote in a free, fair and internationally monitored election.

      The current discussion in Addis is around how to get seat or cling to power in the would be government, not to really bring peace. People like Nguen are mad living outside country. when there is chance for people of south Sudan they will bring change not by gun, they are not foolish. Let’s pray, God is Great and will bring people,I am optimistic. Look, God brought peace in 2005 after 21 years of bitter war with north, then what about one people (southerners), peace will come to this country.

  3. mading says:

    N. Nguen. Nyagaats like you can not win the war by selling South Sudan in the way you are trying to do, where is al shahabs base in our country ? Liar, liar. Shame on you big Nyagat.

    • Deng Hanbol says:

      Mading,
      You are a half-baked slave like your fellow Jaang who have a siege mentality. You always think that 63 ethnic groups are against your tribe Dinka. That is the reason your leader habitually asking foreign countries to fight on your behalf whenever there is an internal problem. Mading, you must know from today that Naath and her allies are determined to dislodge your illiterate president and replacing him with an educated nationalist leader.
      Shame on you ya serf!

  4. info@southsudannation says:

    J. Nguen,
    In spite of your patriotic concern and excellent proposals to IGAD, the greatest problem in the long and confused struggle against the KIIR tribal tyranny is the Nuer leadership….specifically the diabolical roles being played out by Machar and Taban.
    Seriously, this current struggle unfolding is like the August 1991 split between Machar and Garang, which sadly ended up in Machar’s capitulation to Garang. One wonders whether Machar, Taban and the Naath have the capable leaders at all.
    Why can’t Machar simply retire and hand over the leadership to someone more capable and who can successfully put the opposition in the right path to success?
    Twice Machar had the chances to ‘eliminate or terminate’ Kiir leadership, in December 2013 and again during or thereafter in July 2015 J-One confrontation, but somehow, Kiir survived, and of course, in all these incidents. Kiir’s response was catastrophic, specifically on the Nuer and Machar’s supporters.
    Surely, the third time, when Kiir and Machar ever confront each other (which will surely recur), Kiir won’t ever miss in the total elimination of Machar. It might be traitor Taban who will definitely carry out this final mission on behalf of Kiir and the jieng who have never forgotten or forgiven Machar for the 1991 incident. Even murderer Malong is now joining this fake peace process, what a mess!!
    Brother, Kiir, as a career intelligence soldier, is fully conscious of the impending and potential danger and deadly fate awaiting him if he naps for just one second. That’s why he will always make and take the first step to eliminate Machar.
    So, it is clear.
    Either Kiir is taken out first or there will be no peace in the country. All those of Gadafi, Kabila, Sadam, Hitler, Bokassa, Sekou Toare, etc… had to go before peace comes to the country.
    Editor

    • J. Nguen says:

      Dear Editor,

      For your information, I for one, don’t condone tribal hegemony in South Sudan like what we have seen perfected by the Dinka under Salva Kiir. This is to say that Dr. Machar or other leaders in South Sudan than Kiir is fighting for that cause. Therefore, it’s terribly sad and wrong for you to think along these lines. The Naath Nation in this fiasco and confusion are fighting to see and ensure stability return to South Sudan; and they do not ascribe for any of their sons to take South south Sudan leadership by all mean necessary. We want any other South Sudanese capable of leading to lead us.

      Should it be the case that the Naath wanted this leadership, they have the populace to do so without any question. But because this is not the case, the Naath Nation was forced to defend herself by the enemy of peace in South Sudan like any other community.

      If Dr. Machar is weak as you alleged, then, this is not the Naath problem because he does not fight for Maath interest but South Sudanese cause. Mr. Machar is a national leader and must be judge along this context. For Gen. Taban, I am not going waste any word for him for he does not deserved that.

      For some of my confused South Sudanese who have nothing to offer than insults, I like to remind them that the die is rolled and some of us are set to fight this war to its finest conclusion. They can cry wolves as they wish and that is not going to stop me writing and proposing possible solutions. The peace being negotiated in Addis Ababa is bounced to fail and world is set to find other means including the regime change agenda.

      Thank you,
      J. Nguen

    • BILL KUCH says:

      Malouda, Mor-Amook, Mading, Chief Editor,
      Thank you all for your wonderful responses. And of course, an author cannot teach us anything for there is nothing new from those who made rebellion their own business of getting ranks. He is preaching distorted history and he left out what they are up to. And that means only the fool will believe that. An author talked as if he is going to change the world, but as far as the history goes, he is one them. Those who like to go back and forth between governments or UN camps. You know Nuer people don’t even know how to run their own movement. And now, he is talking about terrorists as if he is not one of them. They don’t even know why someone like general Cirilo refuses to be part of. They are just people who like to take advantage of all kinds of adversities which they themselves created. There should be no peace if they are still claiming their counterproductive braveness!

  5. Deng Hanbol says:

    Dear Editor,
    We shouldn’t let our prejudice blind us to the reality. Indeed, Dr. Riek Machar hails from Naath ethnic group. However, he’s the leader of 63 ethnic groups, not Nuer only and so your claim is not true.
    To confirm that you’re wrong, Henry Adowr, who comes from Latuka ethnic group in Eastern Equatoria is a deputy of Machar. Further, Secretary General of the SPLM-IO is from western Bar el-Ghazal specifically from Ferit ethnic. Because of the aforementioned facts, your comment does not make sense at all.
    Editor, let me ask you this simple question, are you displeased because most of Equatorians are declining to join general Thomas movenment? With regard to the civil war in South Sudan, I think you are aware that what destroying our beloved country now is Museveni’s brinkmanship. The world and the region know that the ongoing war is between the SPLM-I0, on one hand, and the Uganda Dinka allies on the other.
    If the battle is between Nuer and Dinka, it would have ended in Jan. 2014. Dinak has no the capacity to face Nuer the in battle filed. Nuer are always superior to Dinka. For example, the war of 1832 between British and Nuer was because the latter had occupied Dinka lands by force likewise, the war between Ugandan army Nuer white army in 2014, was because the Nuer generals were about to capture Juba from Dina army. Brother Ngun, this is one of the best article I have ever read.

    • BILL KUCH says:

      Deng HanBol,
      This is to reparaphrase your claiming just to be clear. Riek Machar is not the leader of 63 tribes as you put it. He is only Nuer leader. And will never be the one for 63 to rule. Also, I rather be with general Cirilo than to be with Nuer tribe’s leader.

  6. mading says:

    Editor. You touch Riek Machar, Ngundeng predicted president of South Sudan, you will pick a fight with Nuer internet warriors rebels. Because they don’t see what other wise south Sudanese like you see. Deng Hanbol, why are Nuer like you are always brave on the webs and you don’t show it on the ground, you should have been in Juba right after Uganda troops were taken out of South Sudan, instead the cowards took your base Pagak with out UPDF, let me just tell you that if nuer and Muonyjaang are put on the battle field, and ask to fight it out, Muonyjaang will remain standing after it is over, but there will be no Nuer left. Take it or leave it.

    • Mor-amook says:

      Dear Deng Hanbol and J.Nguen – Greeting from South Sudan. I am not refugee or slave in another country like you guys. You are beating drum of war between Dinka and Nuer, but we have tested it several times and there are records. First of all, not all Nuer are foolish and idiots like you, I cannot generalized. And since you don’t know anything in history, let me mentioned few most recent history in regards to fighting, not your distorted history of 17 century.

      1. From 1991 – 2002, almost 90% of the SPLA were from Dinka fighting Nuer, Messirya, Rezikas in South Darfur, all Nuer malitias, Sudan Armed Forced, Malitias of Ismail Kony, Thomas Cirilo, Tom al Nur in Raja, Lam Akol, Equatoria Defense Forces and many others. The SPLA fought all those wars and we survived until we achieved cause in 2005. You did not manage to spoil movement as Riak, Lam and others wanted. These are facts, asked Riak please. Where did Nuer take Dinka to? Were there Uganda forces helping SPLA during that time?
      2. Fighting on 20th March,1997, when Riak mobilized thousands of armed malitias to go and invade Lakes/Rumbek to ally with SAF in Rumbek town to cut off movement between Bhar el Gazal and Equatoria. Ask Riak please of what happened that day. Those who defeated Riak were “Gelweng” the cattle defense forces not even SPLA.
      3. December 2013, the SPLA was 70% Nuer because all malitias of Matip, Peter Gadet, and many others were integrated. This was why Riak calculated to take over power by force. Where there Ugandan soldiers in Juba by then?
      4. July J-1 where there Ugandan soldiers?

      I know Nuer invade always Bor when there is crisis like 1991 and 2014. Please note that you have not face whole Monyjang and don’t be proud of. Bor community is just a tiny section of Monyjang, you out numbered them. Look, in the former 10 states of South Sudan, 3 states are 100% inhabited by Monyjang, Lakes, Warrap and Aweil plus Abyiei, whereas you can still find Monyjang mixed with Nuer in Jonglei, Upper Nile and Unity. These are facts and it is left to others to imagine who could defeat who if we go by your wish. The whole world is aware of who is stronger, even Equatorians who were in Juba during two incidents know who is who. So, don’t call for fighting you don’t know its end result.

      I am not saying Nuer are not fighters, but we know your weakness in fighting. Also, I am not saying Nuer cannot rule South Sudan, this is because you are south Sudanese and you have the same rights like others, but the way you want to take leadership, I assure you, you will not get it.

      Message to IGAD: Please make 6 deputies e.g. Riak, Lam Akol, Wani, Taban, Cirillo, Ladwor as deputies and 100 ministers for every rebel General to be a minister and make all malitias to be Generals in the SPLA. You will see them signing agreement in one minute. All those rebel leaders have nothing to fight for, only individual to come to power to loot resources. What is democracy they are talking about? Many African countries are still struggling for democracy and have been independent long time ago. The transitional period should be 18 months for people to go for elections. If you go by the above they will lay down arms. They are not mandated by the people, they are for themselves.

  7. Deng Hanbol says:

    Meding,
    This is Dinka character, whenever there is a dispute between Naath and Dinka, Jaang will cry loudly for help. Also, whenever Nuer oppose foreign authority, Dinka will collaborate with the enemy. For instance, in 19 century, when Nuer heroicly fought Arab, Turkish, as well as British, Dinka joined the invaders and fought side by side with them against Nuer. “….In the late 19th century, British, Arab and Turkish traders exerted influence in the area. The Nuer tended to resist the Arab and Turkish, which led to conflict with the Dinka, who supported the British said, Wikipedia.”
    Please search Wikipedia: Demographics of South Sudan.

  8. Roberto Kasongo says:

    J. Nguen,
    The revitalization forum is not about holding Kiir accountable for crimes against non Dinka in South Sudan, it is actually rewarding him for killing innocent civilian. The opposition groups know that Kiir will not accept peaceful settlement to the conflict, and I do not know why these groups take part in this forum. Idiot kiir and his tribesmen can be defeated militarily. The opposition groups must pursue military campaign against this animal called Kiir.

    Roberto kasongo (Bana Equatoria)

    • info@southsudannation says:

      Roberto,
      Like I succinctly posed in my editorial, it’s Kiir “who must die if South Sudan is to live-survive.” A hopelessly incapable and politically incapacitated imbecile can’t hold our nation hostage.
      Editor

      • Mor-amook says:

        Roberto, tell IGAD that you want to military solution, you will see. You don’t know what is war. You learnt it in theory from Uganda where you were born, grew up and went to school. Please don’t call for something you are not going to participate in it.

        You are comfortable under AC fighting on websites, mobilizing others to go and die and suffer. In all underdeveloped countries, there are disgruntles like you, so it is good. Just bark and the camel is going.

      • Roberto Kasongo says:

        Editor,
        You got it right. South Sudan will not see peace as long as Kiir is alive. This clueless and tribal chief firmly believes in power. He does not see himself without power simply because this is all he got in life. He will not relinquish power voluntarily. So he must be brought to justice or justice must be brought to him.

        Roberto kasongo (Bana Equatoria)

  9. Deng Hanbol says:

    Roberto,
    I extremely agree with you. My compatriot, the burden of Dinka tribe is destroying our beautiful country. In Greater Equatoria, the Dinka want to impose their savage culture on Equatorians who are famed as peaceable and practical people as well. In actual fact, Dinka government is the worst tragedy in South Sudan’s history. Therefore, I argue that a collective action is urgently needed to avoid divergence of the country.
    All the Best!

    • Mor-amook says:

      Deng Hanbol,
      Do you want to install Nuer government or Equatorian government? Because you believe the current government is Dinka government even though, First vice president, Minister of higher education, Minister of General education, minister of Humanitarian Affiairs, minister of health, minister of petroleum are Nuer.

      It clear from your wish, the next government that you want to take over by force will be divided 50% for Nuer and 50% Equatorian. That way, you will call for negotiation of another peace talk.

      • Deng Hanbol says:

        Mor-amook,
        Why do Dinka elites defend unjust, incompetent and corrupt system? Mor-amook,this is a central question. You should be aware that many members of different ethnic groups in South Sudan believe Dinka/Jaang are thieves, they are grabbers,land and national resources, they take everything, they are inconsiderate, they are tribalistic, they don’t consider other people.They are monopolistic, they have monopolized everything.

  10. Hoiloom says:

    J. Nguen,

    This is a superb article, it is either them or us. Whoever believes in IGAD mediated peace is wasting his time. Our hope lies in the battlefields and this is where we must exert our efforts. By the time we were busy signing Cessation of Hostilities in Ethiopia they were busy kidnapping IO top official in Kenya by the name Marko Lopiri(spelling check) whom I heard today was tortured to death in Juba. In addition to Aggrey Idri, Dong Luak and Gatdet Dak. Kiir will eventually have to go no matter how long this struggle take.

    Hoiloom

  11. Ali Abdel latif says:

    J Nguen keeps fooling himself. I think this guy should see a mental doctor. For all, it’s known fact that a forceful regime change was never possible and can never be possible in South Sudan. It was tried all the years from the day one the conflict broke out in the country.

    Even the Americans, after they saw the South Sudan file from the Britain, they changed course and its why Troika is seriously pushing for a peace agreement in which all parties are accommodated.

    Rebellion in the country is depleted. The rebellions after losing face and force, they have shifted focus from regime change to terrorism. This is because they don’t have enough forces to capture towns or march to Juba.

    The rebels are reduced to outlaw bandits confined to the bushes and operating in small units in the periphery, stealing, looting, raping and killing unarmed civilians.

    For a man of his age and education, its so contrary to see that he preaches war than peace. The worst thing about this guy is that he is not in South Sudan. He preaches war from Canada. He does not have a gun. He has no family in South Sudan. He stands to lose nothing.

    I hope South Sudanese are clever enough not to listen to his useless, false, mad, misleading rhetoric.

  12. Mondeto says:

    Great article. I do believe that we have a problem in the whole of the country: Dinka & Nuer. No trust Among themselves. And In this current DinkaGovernment, they want to cling to power by all means to maintain their tribal dominion in the country. And Nuer are Divided. Equartorians are tired of Dinkas grabbing and stealing the lands, destroyed everything, killing and rapping our women. Equartorians demanded for federalism, or Equartoria must declare independence, because we are really tired of the only Rude Tribe, Dinka..,,because if there’s no federalism, there is No peace coming.

    • Mor-amook says:

      Mondeto, when Arabs used to get your wives in Juba by forced during struggle, did you complain? The residential areas are known for this. e.g. Atala-bara (come out), rujal mafi (no men)….etc.
      I don’t agree to reports of rapes all the times, these are fabricated to justify intervention from your father, the USA.
      Indeed that why you (rebels) will not think of compromises. Look, there is no agreement that asks to dissolve all existing structure in one day! e.g army. where will you tell them to go?

      Independence of Equatorians is a day dream not even night dream. It will never happen before Jesus comes back.

  13. mading says:

    Deng Hanbol. Riek Machar, Peter Gatdet, Paulino Matiep are living example of Nuer who betrayed SPLM/SPLA during our war with Arabs. All South Sudanese know many of your Nuer who make a living of betraying their people. Don’t keep boring people with your 19 century stories who were written by people you don’t know. N. Nguen, and Roberto Kasongo. Threat is not working, people are no longer threaten each other in our country, people are fighting now, we are not talking anymore. So get out of the web, go the battle ground.

  14. Yoane L. Yesua says:

    Both Riek Machar, and Salva Kiir’s have to go if we South Sudanese want peace.

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