The Enforced Kiir-Machar Peace Deal will backfire

BY: Maciek Gabriel Gum, SEPT/12/2015, SSN;

Although this peace pact has been signed by both president Kiir and Machar, the future still looks bleak. Some people may call me a prophet of doom but the truth remains that this deal won’t hold for long before a major war outbreak occurs again.

An agreement, as the word itself states, should be done out of willingness from both parties. There should be a mutual understanding and trust among the parties.

As it stands, the parties were forced to sign the deal and there is great mistrust between the parties. Even as the agreement was being signed in Juba, it was being violated elsewhere in the Country but let’s hope it will be respected.

Then here’s a picture of what might happen: Riek Machar will be sworn in as Vice President but South Sudan will still have rebels.

Since Dr. Riek took the decision to relieve the likes of Gatdet from his “rebel government” in response to the sanctions imposed on them by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), these generals have now defected and wouldn’t trust Riek again.

The de facto rebel group led by Changson Chang has also clearly stated that they will be fighting both the SPLM/IO and the Government unless inclusive peace negotiations are carried out. This clearly spells war, not peace.

The President and the First Vice President will be at Loggerheads from Day 1 till Elections time.

Dr. Riek has worked with Kiir for several years and both have never been on good terms. Dr. Riek now revitalized and energized by the peace deal signed which gives him leverage will be even more aggressive.

President Kiir on the other hand, will always be distrustful of Riek because he will view him as a rival rather than a partner.

Further, the two parallel armies will definitely take sides instead of being impartial leading to tension within the barracks and across the country.

It will be like a time-bomb waiting to explode any minute and it might sooner explode.

But if it doesn’t, then the Elections.

Hopefully we will reach the period of elections after the peace deal has been implemented. Dr. Riek, will likely contest for elections against President Kiir. What is likely envisaged?

Whether Kiir wins the elections or Riak wins the elections, there will definitely be post-election violence or probably a repeat of December 15.

As you can see, we don’t have anything good in store. Just pray for miracles.

Maciek Gabriel Gum

25 Comments

  1. AGUMUT says:

    People of South Sudan should say no to Riek Machar to go back again. Hell no no to him.

  2. Chormke Jas says:

    You have not read the agreement or not understood it. This said I would request IO that there should not be the unity of the SPLM. Doing so will bring more problem at the time of primary selection of the SPLM presidential candidate: this was the trigger of the Dec 2015 conflict as Kiir maneuvered to avoid losing the Chairmanship of the SPLM and hence the candidacy. Instead, there must be a clear blue water between the old SPLM, lead by Kiir, and the SPLM IO lead by Machar. In this way there will be no need for primaries and thus we will have a less confusing start and election. This is crucial for the peace to be fully implemented. I believe in the IGAD-Plus agreement which does not recognize the so-called Arusha Agreement..

  3. Maciek Gabriel Gum,

    I agree with most of your predictions, but would like to refute your statement that say “Dr. Riek now revitalized and energized by the peace deal signed which gives him leverage will be even more aggressive”. My friend be advised that this peace is design to safe kiir government from collapsing. Imagine, between 2013 and 2014 the war was intense in Greater Upper Nile only where many Dinka called it Nuer rebellion.

    However, in middle of 2015 the war became intense first in Western Bar El Gazal, Western Equatoria, Eastern Equatoria, and now Central Equatoria. This translate that Western Bar El Gazalians have already rebelled and the rebellion is increasing rapidly in Greater Equatoria, while Equatorians trust for the government is decreasing like rain water that drained quickly as soon as rain stop.

    If Kiir continue violating peace and war continue, then by next year more the 50% of equatorians will rebelled. Subsequently, all major roads leading to Kenya, Uganda, and Zaire or Congo will be blocked. You better safe Salva Kiir leadership by convincing him to accept peace before it is too late. Above all, the war is saving Kiir government, but not Dr. Machar.

    • Nikalongo says:

      Ramaran,

      You have never understood that, there are more Nuer in the SPLA-Kiir and in government than all Equatorians put together. If anything, it is your people and not Equatorians fighting for Kiir. Equatorians do not rely on Kiir and his gang of thugs for their survival. Why would we block our own roads? There are no fools in Equatoria. The welfare of our people is paramount. We need the roads to trade with our cousins in East Africa, the Congo and CAR. Kiir and his Generals do not need those roads. The signed peace is meant to save lives of your people (Dinka and Nuer) and Kiir and Riak to continue looting your oil money.

      There are no wars in East, West and Central Equatoria. Talks of wars in Magwi, Lanya, Nimule…etc. are propaganda by the enemies of peace designed to cost panic among our civil populations. In Western Equatoria, there are a bunch of cattle rustlers and bandits from Lake State disturbing our peace. We will take care of those in due time. Keep your wars to your backyards. Equatoria remains a no go zone.

      Once more Ramaran, know where to direct your frustrations and anger. Leave Equatorians alone and out. The senseless and tribal war is your own (Dinka and Nuer) making. Resolve it or it will consume you like wild fire.

      sanduksanduk@hotmail.com

      • Nikalongo,

        The world of today is full of freedom so you can believe what you want to believe or you can choose to live in denials like you are. I learn from a reliable sources that you are a director general of idiots and clueless people in Greater Equatoria and your deputy False Millionaire is a senior manager of looters and killers in Juba.

        Your minds are either frozen and cannot think anymore or you have brain injuries that block your brain from thinking outside of the box. Your brains are not functioning properly like Salva Kiir’s brain that is covered up with hate in 2005 so his brain got heat up because its does not get any fresh air and now Salva Kiir reasoning ability has gone. I am afraid your reasoning ability is deteriorating.

        Nikalongo, although you are brainless, clueless, and totally idiots, we still love you deeply as a country mate. So the rebels join forces in Greater Equatoria and Greater Upper Nile will still sacrifice for you and will still free you from living in fear.

        • Nikalongo says:

          Ramaran,

          Charity begins at home. How will you (Dinka and Nuer) free me if you cannot free yourselves from your own mental and physical entanglements? Can you imagine the Dinka and Nuer council of thugs proposing peace for South Sudan when they can’t prevent the feuding Dinka and Nuer clans from slaughtering each other. You be should ashamed of yourselves instead of lecturing others on the policy of peace. Why would you want to export war to Equatoria? Your government and rebels ought to observe the ceasefire they signed.

          Ramaran, there is nothing for you to sacrifice on my behalf. Liberate the people to have consigned to a life of misery and indignity in the UNMISS camps. I am better off an idiot, clueless, brainless….. living in peace than you a wise person wallowing in self inflicted misery and fighting a senseless and tribal war.

  4. AGUMUT says:

    Dr.Riek Machar will not make it or survive for another two years,the next for him will be a COMA.

  5. taban lowani says:

    Mr. Gum, your analysis is absolutely true. My question here is, do kiir and macher are the only people could lead this country? Oh May God, people of south Sudan should wake-up now rather than later before those two killers ,shock another south Sudanese peoples blood. As always been written in many articles about them that, kiir was a security undercover for almost his life in military. He knows precisely what he is doing in his leadership.we hear every day people are missing, journalist are also threaten with death, and horrendously those innocent civilians who are killed in Juba without discriminatory. Cmoe to macher, many innocent people also lost their lives in 1991 because he said, Grang was became a dictator and wasn’t listen to other people ideas about movement. Likewise, evryone in south Sudan knew macher has an ambition to become a president by any means. Please follow his speeches throughout his political history.

  6. Agumut,

    You and Alex use to say you are Equatorians. Are you still Equatorians? or you quit being equatorians?

  7. GatCharwearbol says:

    Mr. Maciek Gum,

    This group, call it Changson’s group is there to confuse people. To be clear, they have no supporters in Nuerland and have taken nobody with them. Also, it is crucial to know that they are actually member of SPLM-Juba.

    If you have been following the trend, the pathway this group has taken is the same pathway Lul Ruai Koang took. Lul’s formed his fake movement in Nairobi and the next day of it announcement, he was in Juba sitting next to Kiir. The objective of his movement was to fight both Salva Kiir and Dr. Machar’s groups and for the establishment of administrative area of Greater Akobo. Silly isn’t it.

    Lul is now in Juba. How can you be dinning with Kiir when you are fighting him? Do you really think Kiir is that stupid? Don’t let his cowboy-hat fool you.

    The same scenario is what is happening to Changson and his outcast boys.

    • Nikalongo says:

      GatCharwearbol,

      We have seen that kind of thing before. Remember the 1991 split? Riak in Khartoum to bring South Sudan independence from Bashier. Changson, Lul,…..are not doing anything out of the ordinary. There will always be Dinka and Nuer wew. why not? If you do not believe me, ask Bentui Ramaran. He knows more.
      Nikalongo

      • GatCharwearbol says:

        Yes indeed. At this crossroads, there is only Nuer wew. Dinka wew doesn’t exist, but maybe in the future there will be Dinka-yow. Yow is money in Nuer dialect. Dinka guathne is what we know (This means Dinka after positions).

        Nikalongo, do not leave yourself out of this equation. You’re one variable in the mix. I don’t know how to call you right now because you have been flip-flopping from one thing to another. At the onset of this crisis, you told everybody that Museveni is there to protect you and now the protector turned out to be invader of Equatorian land. I never read a word of condemnation from you. You are caved in to Museveni demand. Nuer will not caved in to anybody. If you think I am wrong, ask Nuer-Another Israel in East Africa.

        The question is: Between Dinka and Museveni, who is the best invader of Equatorian land? Would you prefer Dinka or Museveni? Obviously, you prefer Museveni since you have not said anything about him invading my true Equatorians people’s land. For God sake, stop calling yourself Equatorian. You are spoiling the nice name of Equatorian people. Thank you for understanding.

        • Nikalongo says:

          GatCharwearbol,

          Going by those words, Generals, Khemis and Aturjong are Dinka guathne because they were sacked by Kiir. I was told Riak too is big moneyman. In that case, the likes of D’Agot, Hussein Nyar, Garang Jnr can correctly be called Dinka-yow.

          Museveni never invaded anybody. There are two Acholi clans along the borders who occasionally disagree but resolve their differences. This time was no different. Can you tell the forum which South Sudanese was killed in that invasion? Stop listening to empty propaganda.

          • Nikalongo,

            What kind of drugs are you smoking on my friends? or What kind of maritha are you drinking these days that make you say no make sense things? Let me inform you, General Khamis and Dau Aturjang were not relieved from their position when they left the government, so they just want to make change to the collapsing government of Nikalongo, Wani Igga, and Kiir mayardit.

          • GatCharwearbol says:

            Nikalongo,

            Be careful where you are receiving your information. It seems someone is pulling your legs. As far as I am concerned, there are no money trees in the bushes of Upper Nile Region and Dr. Machar is in these bushes. Ergo, check your sources of your information.

            We really wish Dr. Machar was a moneyman. We could have defeated Museveni very easily. Ammos would have been sufficient enough to confront both air and ground forces of Museveni. It is the lack of money that led us to be weak in frontline.

          • Nikalongo says:

            Gatcharwearbol/Ramaran,

            Gentlemen, forget about that change and reform thing in government. Only blind supporters buy into that nonsense. The thugs in Juba and Pagak have nothing new to offer. Personally I do not believe that people should be sacked or persecuted for holding alternative views. Gen. Khemis was sacked from his position by Minister Makuei the way Gadet and Gathouth were. Atourjong was denied the opportunity to faced Gen. Malong. Had he not made a fast move, he would be taking some timeout, dead or alive in that famous White house in Lologo. From Gatcharwearbol’s explanation, Gen. Khemis and Atourjong are Dinka-guathne while the other Nuer gentlemet in Kiir’s camp are Nuer-wew. They are all traitors.

            My source of information is as good and faulty as yours. Do you know that two Chinese choppers were reportedly seen hovering above Pagak two week ago. They were said to be carrying tones of green banknotes. A similar chopper was also reportedly seen in Aweil. The Chinese are trying to keep Paloch a war-free zone. There is a lot of green banknotes out there. Those who fall from grace become Dinka-yow or Nuer-wew. Talks of defeating others will only perpetuate violence. Peace is around the corner. Let us go for it. What were you in your previous life Ramaran?

    • Joana Adams says:

      GatCharwearbol,
      You are right, changson’s splinter group has been planted to weaken the people’s opposition movement under designate 1st VP Dr. Riek Machar who has of late performed brilliantly while the tribal chief in black hat seems to be dwindling in stature and influence by the day.
      The message to such traitors is clear, people know them and will not forgive their treachery this time around. By attacking the Agreement they are not just attacking the person of Riek Machar or simply dividingthe Nuer community but are attacking all those seeking genuine regime chage in South Sudan. And one day they will face the wrath of the people.
      The only exception I will plead for is Peter Gadet. I believe Dr. Riek should find a way of reconciling with him for his outstanding performance in defence of his people, which greatly contributed to achieving this Agreement however imperfect. This will stop Gadet fom being used by unscrupulous empty politicians like Changson or indeed being bribed by the many agents of Kiir to derail the Agreement. I believe Peter Gadet is a nationalist and deserves a second chance.

      Joana Adams

      • GatCharwearbol says:

        Joana Adams,

        I unreservedly agree with you with regard to Peter Gatdet Yaka. He tried the best in the early stage of this fiasco. He undeniably deserves a second chance. But remember, he cannot be fully trusted. He is known as that kind of A guy who switch sides without thinking first. He acts before thinking. Also, he is very susceptible to bribery. Despite that, he deserves to be given a chance.

  8. alex says:

    It is wast of time to talk to vision less people like you
    you have lost the game already. Will riack wind the elections
    SPLM is supported all over the country
    Splm im opp is a party of opportunistic job seekers who are fighting for their jobs. Some Nuer don’t like Riack
    He has now fallen out with his generals how will Riack manage two opposing forces all together. The best thing is fot him to corporate with Juba or Gadet will be the first person to eliminate him.

    • Lavina Lual says:

      South Sudanese may choose to vote for persnalities other than party this time arround because Dr Riek and Kiir are all SPLM party members

  9. Mr. Maciek Gabriel Gum,
    If the President and the First Vice President will be at Loggerheads from Day one till elections time, let it be so. History tells us that, there has never been any peace between Nuer and the Dinka since antiques time. But what important is that the other 62 tribes will see some light, and if there is no peace, it will be an opportune time to implement federal system of government. Because not every tribe has culture of violent as you reiterated. Those rebels who continue to sing melody of war must know that international community is watching, and they will not allow our nation slide back into war again. South Sudan has been bleeding for long, it needs to be build now and we can built it only when there is sustainable peace. You predicted only war after election and you said “we don’t have anything good in store.” Is our country a violent nation are we born only to fight? Please, have some hope in the international community if you think that Dr.Riack Machar and Salva Kiir are good as gone.

  10. False Millionaire says:

    Bantiu Ramaran,
    Take with u to Juba cousin Gatcharweabol for the feast over the oil revunes under the arrangements of,”the compromise peace agreement”.
    But better not celebrate too early becouse the prices of oil have droped worldwide and u will likey end up crossing the desrt of poverty in desperation and writchedness.
    Now tell us if u hadn’t been unwise to have provoked the tragedy that kilt so many human lives,put many others in misery and getting the result that will also put u in misery.

    If those of Nikalongo are deep in the heart of equatoria clearing lands for banana,casava,maize and sorghum plantations,me and my likes are deep in the swamps gathering woods for cooking fire after fishing and hunting crocodiles and hippopotamuses.
    We live free with clean conscience.We walk tall in broad daylight and never in need of body guards because we owe no one any thing.
    U are mocking if u think we are in Juba.
    But we are brotherly,honest,generous and will be more than disposed to teach u our surviving methods when your dreams turned night mares if u may be interested.
    Ofcourse that will never make u miss to feel so good about youself as a civilized human being far from your present state of savage animal nature who is burned to kill innocent human beings,rape,destroy and loot in the living configuration of a human form!!!

  11. GatCharwearbol says:

    False Millionaire,

    Please wake up from your slumber. GatCharwearbol and Bentiu Ramaran were born in Nuerland. Our ancestors lived in this land for generations without any oil income. Tell me, how did they survived? Oil is not the reason of our existence. We are hardworking people who don’t live on oil money. Do you think there is oil money in the bushes that we are in right now? If you think so, you must be delusional. In fact, the oil money that comes from our ancestral land are being pocketed by Ugandans, Rwandans, Kenyans, Egyptians, Chadians, Darfurians, and others that your sultan has invited to fight Nuer. Will you finish us with all these mercernaries you brought? Utterly no. Your characteristics can never be mind.

  12. Lokoronyo says:

    If I were among any of the south Sudanese leaders I would really feel ashamed to hear somebody saying that this peace agreement we have signed was forced on us . Simply because this alone denotes a sense of irresponsibility from us where the whole world will be made to believe that we do not know exactly what we are doing. Again we are giving grounds for violators to act because we are showing them that another peace is yet to come not what we have signed on. No any agreement is ever perfect. once you have decided to pronounce your yes by signing just go ahead to convince everybody that you have signed on the right thing. How can you convince the commanders on the ground to lay down their arms when you have not told them that you have signed on the right thing. Let us lead the world for peace for our people not to give impression that we are being lead to attain peace for ourselves. this is the simple explanation for saying we are forced to this compromise peace deal.

    • Joana Adams says:

      Yes, it is important to let your yes be yes and your no be no. In this way you can be respected and taken seriously. This habitual lies and deception by a man who is suppose to be a president is sickening. Now even the world knows that from the behaviours of or leaders South Sudanese need lectures in universal moral values. And where better to start it than in our primary schools says the Compromise Agreement. And they are right.

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