BY: Maciek Gabriel Gum, SEPT/12/2015, SSN;
Although this peace pact has been signed by both president Kiir and Machar, the future still looks bleak. Some people may call me a prophet of doom but the truth remains that this deal won’t hold for long before a major war outbreak occurs again.
An agreement, as the word itself states, should be done out of willingness from both parties. There should be a mutual understanding and trust among the parties.
As it stands, the parties were forced to sign the deal and there is great mistrust between the parties. Even as the agreement was being signed in Juba, it was being violated elsewhere in the Country but let’s hope it will be respected.
Then here’s a picture of what might happen: Riek Machar will be sworn in as Vice President but South Sudan will still have rebels.
Since Dr. Riek took the decision to relieve the likes of Gatdet from his “rebel government” in response to the sanctions imposed on them by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), these generals have now defected and wouldn’t trust Riek again.
The de facto rebel group led by Changson Chang has also clearly stated that they will be fighting both the SPLM/IO and the Government unless inclusive peace negotiations are carried out. This clearly spells war, not peace.
The President and the First Vice President will be at Loggerheads from Day 1 till Elections time.
Dr. Riek has worked with Kiir for several years and both have never been on good terms. Dr. Riek now revitalized and energized by the peace deal signed which gives him leverage will be even more aggressive.
President Kiir on the other hand, will always be distrustful of Riek because he will view him as a rival rather than a partner.
Further, the two parallel armies will definitely take sides instead of being impartial leading to tension within the barracks and across the country.
It will be like a time-bomb waiting to explode any minute and it might sooner explode.
But if it doesn’t, then the Elections.
Hopefully we will reach the period of elections after the peace deal has been implemented. Dr. Riek, will likely contest for elections against President Kiir. What is likely envisaged?
Whether Kiir wins the elections or Riak wins the elections, there will definitely be post-election violence or probably a repeat of December 15.
As you can see, we don’t have anything good in store. Just pray for miracles.
Maciek Gabriel Gum