The Bitter Pill: IGAD Plus Peace Proposal and Power Sharing Formula among the Parties in South Sudan Crisis

BY: Dr. Thon Giei Ajak, JUN/18/2015, SSN;

Take it or leave it, literally speaking, is precisely the summary of the IGAD Plus peace proposal for the parties in the South Sudan crisis. Surprisingly, the two chief negotiators of the warring parties have signed up to IGAD plus mediation process. After their signature, the two received the proposal document for consultation with their principals in Juba and Addis (Fagak).

It is understandable that Taban Deng Gai did not say a word on the proposal as his rebels lost most territories in Greater Upper Nile. But for Nhial Deng Nhial to keep silent without showing the world that South Sudan is a sovereign nation and that its territory now and previously is under the control of the Mighty SPLA and if it were not the rainy season, the government army would have shouted “ SPLA Oyee” mouth-fully in Pagak and that South Sudan Government under General Salva Kiir will never entertain calls for dismantling the country.

I say, without Nhial uttering any comments, that in my view speaks volumes on how the peace talks are being managed on the government side.

None of the two government and rebel chief negotiators, have wondered how did the document come out to light? Who was the brain behind the power sharing arrangement? Who was the architect of the document? What criteria did she/he use to put the knife on the throat of South Sudan Nation (the proposed division)?

If the parties to South Sudan crisis agree to the proposed document, then that would be a farewell to a country called as South Sudan effective from 9 July 2011.

What is good in dividing South Sudan into Greater Upper Nile under the murderous Riek Machar rebels who has slaughtered civilians on ethnic grounds where they operate militarily, and South Sudan under executive president Kiir administration of Greater Bahr-El Ghazal and Equatoria?

What peace would be realized in South Sudan particularly in greater Upper Nile if the SPLA is to pull out from the region, and Oil facilities and the government in the 3 states of Upper Nile to be handed over to the murderous Riek Rebels?

And what would be the position of the opponents to Riek rebels in the states of Upper Nile (Bull Nuer in Unity state, Padang Dinka in Unity, Upper Nile and Jonglei states, Maban ethnic group and Dinka Jonglei (Bor)?

Will the above opponents of Riek rebels leave their lands and resources to Riek rebels, because they will never accept to surrender their fate to the rebels?

Rejected by both the government and rebels and welcomed by Pagan Amum of SPLM-FDs (according to radio Tamazuj), IGAD Plus proposal is going to have far reaching implications for the future of South Sudan being the first step to divide the country on power sharing and resources.

The methodology used in calculating the percentages of 53%, 33% and 14% for the rebels, the government and others in the 3 states of Upper Nile respectively, remains unclear and undisclosed and every South Sudanese has the right to know.

If the calculation of the percentages in power sharing was based on the ethnic make-up of greater Upper Nile in accordance with 2008 census, then IGAD plus team and its South Sudanese informants and bad wishers, have made a fatal and unforgivable mistake as it wrongly assumed that all Nuers and all Shilluk in greater Upper Nile are rebels or support the rebels.

The Bul Nuer and Padang Dinka in Unity state have been a thorn in the throat of the rebels and managed to chase rebels out of South Sudan borders.

In Upper Nile state, Teet-Bai forces in (Baliet, Akoka, Malut, Renk and Maban) have maintained their grounds and given hot pursuit to the rebels; Teet-Bai forces proved to be a heavy shield, kept the rebels away from Upper Nile oil fields and in May 2015, Teet-Bai forces (Abu-Shouk: Shouk, Shouk, Shouk) annihilated the rebels forces in the battle of Peel-Bier in Akoka County.

In Jonglei state, the Eagle forces kept the enemy away from Bor, restored peace to Duk and Oror counties and advanced to capture Akoba County.

So if the government in Juba wants to pull out its forces from greater Upper Nile State as part of IGAD proposal, the inhabitants in greater Upper Nile and who are opposed to the plan of genocide and ethnic cleansing of Riek rebels as evident in the massacres of Bailiet, Parieng, Bentiu, Bor, Malakal, Akok, Malut and Majak of Renk County: I say the opponents of the rebels in Upper Nile will take of the situation under their own control.

The IGAD plus proposal is a two-edged weapon to both the rebels and the government. If the rebels accept the proposal to enjoy the 53% governance in the 3 Upper Nile states as well the oil (the sharing formula to be worked out), it will abandon its allies in Bahr El-Gahazal (Dau Aturjoung and Wau trouble makers) and Equatoria (Afred ladu Gore and Maridi and Mundri trouble makers).

The rebels will therefore, abandon the national agenda and become a regional force to advance its agenda for statehood of the region it controls.

If the rebels reject the proposal, it will be a difficult position having lost territories in Unity State, if not rainy season and the rebellion of Johnson Olony, the government forces would have controlled fagak in Upper Nile, and again if not rainy season, Akoba would have fallen to SPLA forces.

So the rebels are in difficult military situation and have to accept any form of peace to allow them to regroup, retrain, re-arm and re-deploy for future combat missions.

On the other hand, if the government accepts the proposal, it will abandon oil facilities that provide 98% of the revenue, sacrifice greater Upper Nile to the rebels and worse, having set the blue prints for Eguatoria to follow Upper Nile and practical disintegration of South Sudan into 3 independent states.

If the government refuses the proposal, it will appear as if it has rejected peace and opted for war and the IGAD plus machine will move to impose sanctions (targeted or non-targeted) and the threats of referring government officials for International Criminal Court (ICC) for trials of crimes against humanity.

So the IGAD plus proposal is a screw nail for both the rebels and the government and none of them will come out if it clean.

The government negotiating team in Addis Ababa was proportionally imbalanced in terms of representation based on the 3 greater regions (Bhar ElGhazal, Equatoria and Upper). It looks the team did not have enough representation from Greater Upper Nile to reflect the war impacts (death, displacement and claims).

In comparison, the rebels’ representation looks 99% Upper Nile. So the South Sudan Crisis on Addis Ababa negotiating table looks like Upper Nile (rebels) against Equatoria and Bahr ElGhazal (government).

Based on this observation, IGAD Plus came out with that proposal. The government needs to work on representing greater Upper Nile on the peace talks to clarify issues linked to tribal composition and position in making peace.

Lastly, the government needs to conduct popular consultations for the people in greater Upper Nile (in displacement) as to what is their position regarding the proposed peace plan. The government team should not confine consulting itself in Juba and heading back to Ethiopia for talks.

It needs to conduct popular consultations of the people concerned and affected directly by war.

Dr. Thon Giei Ajak, is a concerned South Sudanese and can be reached at thongiei288@gmail.com

24 Comments

  1. Diplo Guest says:

    What methodology do you use to call Dr Riek Machar a murderer and President Salva Kiir an Executive President. R u 4 ps? If u r not a murderous Dr.

    • Lavina Lual says:

      Dr Thon-Thanks for the peice information.

      Equatoria is not a gambling subject to be pulled to gether under Kiir Bhar gazal or dr riek uppernile.

      If the document is making dr riek to hold Upper nile, equatoria should also be represented by igga or ladu gore and Bhar-El-Gazal under kiir, and we all look for one unifying president temporary until we see what is next!

      Lavina L

  2. AGUMUT says:

    I am afraid that SOUTHSUDANNATION will disappeared very soon like NYAMILEPEDIA

    • Bol Akuol. says:

      Agumut:

      I’m glad you have mentioned the disappearance of the SPLM-In Opposition’s main social media known as “NYAMILEPEDIA” What happened to Nyamilepedia Website? Did Bentiu Ramaran, GatNor and GatCharwearbol extend their corruption to Nyamilepedia Website? I tried to drop some cluster/elephant Bombs on the enemy of our nation @ the Nyamilepedia forum this morning,but unfortunately it accidentally fell on Pagak, the new hideout of Riek Machar..

      I wonder, If Mr. Bentiu Ramaran, the prominent liar of the looters, still occupies Malakal with Gen.Johnson Olony and Gen. Gabriel Tanginya? Mr. Bentiu, Is your S.phone still working in Malakal? I tried to call you in Malakal this morning but the S.phone was answered by Gen.Garang Mabiel, Gen. Johnson Gony Beliou and Gen. Simon Kuny Puoc. I sounded like a lunatic when I asked them to let me speak with Gen.Bentiu Ramaran. The latest news I heard is that the SPLA’s Lion/Tiger Battalions and the Mechanized forces are on their way to recapture Akobo and Pagak. in Short, we are ready and willing to bury Riek Machar in Juba and not to share power with a lunatic and traitor. Please youtube this song for Riek Machar if you don’t believe me.” President Aci Biyok” which means Riek Machar will never be president.

      • Bol Akuol,

        You can recaptured all the town in Greater Upper Nile, yet the war will not be close to finish. Clueless, visionless, and dictator Kiir will not be my president again. Dictatorship is not what we had been fighting for with Arabs. We will not accept colonization and re-colonization.

    • Mr. Liar,

      Nyamilepedia web site is under redesign. It will be update again when it is finish. There is no problem at all with NYAMILEPENDIA.

  3. Akuma Tok says:

    Dear Mr Thon,
    Your fake PHD will lead you to hell my brother. Iam so doubtful about your PHD. A PHD Holder writing a tribal article like a primary pupil who is not well conversant about the important of diverse coexistence tribes in a given Country like SOUTH SUDAN. You are an internet war monger. How could you just called Dr. Riek ‘s Rebel murderous, stop being paradoxical. Did you really see the worst atrocities committed against civil nuer population in juba by tribal kiir miliitias. in fact Riek rebels were most considerate in diversity. stop preaching hatred in the internet otherwise God is watching you

    • alex says:

      Akuma Tok
      How can you refute the killing in Bor and Bentue, Akobo, Malakal and many other places carried out by the white army.
      How can you deny the buring of hospitals , villages after villages, looting of university properties. It is true you are muderous fighters. I did not know which policy Khartoum used to introdoctrinate people. Konyi the rebel leader of lord resistant army was killing kiss own people, burning villages after villages and was supported by Khartoum. Again now come to splm -in opp they are even more worst than Konyi in killing their own people. Did Khartoum use Koroan or bilbe to introdoctrinate you people or which policy that made people become inhuman to their fellow human beings.
      You are killing your own people in cold blood for no reason

  4. John Bith Aliap says:

    What an impressive analysis! I sincerely urge Juba’s government officials – particularly lead negotiator Hon. Nhial Deng Nhial to take a keen look at your analysis. I can’t wait another article from you buddy.

  5. deng Hanbol says:

    Thon Ajak/ Bor Dinka slave,
    There is no coward Dinka padang fighting white army in Liech (Unity state). As a son of Lich, what I know is that the outbreak of fighting with or between the people movement on one hand and Jem/SPLA-N or Nubain Militia, the M7’s backed Darfur- Nubian Militia on the other. For one over the past two years Jem and the SPLA-N have been deeply embroiled in the civil war in South Sudan because they have been forced to do so by M7, the Ugandan president CIA’s agent. At Museveni’s behest he forced Darfur an , Nubian and the people of Blue Nile to fight against Machar forces so that to defend Dinka’s regime from imminent defeat by the white army.
    Furthermore, Jem has been forced to deploy against our forces in Bentiu effort to contain the SPLA-IO from taking the war into Warrap Sate the homeland of coward slaves.
    Nonetheless, Naath People remain M7 and Dinka slave chief enemies. By the way, in this context, M7 involvement in South Sudan produced two significant strategic gains:
    The Ugandan dictator readiness to loot south Sudan oil money by protecting illiterate Dinka president.
    The second objective of M7, is to induce the policy of divide and rule in south Sudan in order that Uganda will occupy south Sudan by protecting a figure-head and weak president.
    Mr. Jack/ Dinka slave very soon the international community will force Museveni to withdraw his troops in S.Sudan.
    My simple question is, can Dinka slaves have capabilities and capacities to fight Naath warrior alone?

    • bol akuol says:

      Deng Hanbol:

      You are as stupid, coward and naive as your commander in chief, Riek Machar who
      Is cowardly commanding his food lovers and looters from the comfort of his Bedroom in sheraton hotel in Addiss Ababa. Coward, whom did the Arabs call as Friendly Forces during the liberation of South Sudan? Was it not your Naath/Nuer which cowardly betrayed the mighty Jieng/Dinka and allied its’ militia forces with the Arabs to fight against Dinka/South Sudanese? Fool, the only thing that your Naath/Nuer is good at is looting and back stabbing.
      Do you remember how many failed rebellions that your Naath/ Nuer created in South Sudan between 1976 and 2015? Perhaps, you can not remember them all as you are suffering from dementia and memory loss. Here is the list of your failed rebellions in South Sudan since 1976. Anyanya Two, SPLA Nasir, SPLA-UNITED, SSIM, SSLA and SPLM-IN OPPOSITION. Cowards, What are you really attempting to accomplish in South Sudan? The SPLM-IN OPPOSITION has already failed in Sheraton hotel in Addiss Ababa and its’ commander in prostitution is now preparingg to physically surrend himself to the mighty Dinka in Juba as he did in 2002. What will be the name of your next rebellion Dude? Were the M7/Ugandan troops in South Sudan when the mighty Dinka drove you and Riek Machar to Khartoum and Gambella/Ethiopia in 1991? Were M7/Ugandan troops in Juba when the mighty Jieng/ Dinka drove you out of Juba on December 15th, 2013? Please stop beating around in the Bush and let us face the reality of war. The mighty Jieng did not go to the UNMISS camps when you betrayed it and allied your militia forces with Jalaba against it? Cowards! Why did you run into the UNMISS camps, Gambella and Khartoum when the mighty Jieng allied itself with M7/Ugandan troops?

  6. GatCharwearbol says:

    Deng Hanbol,

    They said “Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference”. You are now reducing yourself to their level. Just a food for thought for you. Thank you, GatNaath!

    • Deng Hanbol says:

      Dear Gat Ramaran GatCharwearbol,
      In politics, we have learned constructive criticism,but I’m afraid coward slaves don’t deserve that (treatment). Following the Nuer Genocide in Juba, the war between us and Jaang is an eye for an eye period.
      Any way, thank your for good input.

      • Bol Akuol. says:

        Mr. Hanbol:

        You are a pathetic liar and Coward! Why did you guys move your headquarters from Nasir to Pagak and Riek Machar to Sheraton hotel in Addiss Ababa if you know the war between Nuer and Jaang/Dinka is an eye for an eye? Which eye will the mighty Jieng get when Riek Machar and his looters are hiding in Ethiopia and Sudan?
        Please bring that lunatic, coward Riek Machar back home so that we can fully execute the an eye for an eye judgement in South Sudan. Riek Machar is well known of staging a coup D’etat and runs away for his life. Undoubtedly we would have made him (Riek) blind by now if he did not flee to Sheraton hotel in Addis Ababa. What coward!

        GatJieng/Wen Jaang!

    • Bol Akuol. says:

      Gatcharwearbol:

      Well said, Cousin. Debating with you Naath/Nuer is a waste of time as you don’t like to face the reality. Due to our Pelpel Jaang, Riek Machar and his wife, Angelina Teny can not fool us to die for their leadership every time they want to be president and First lady. Their God of Ngundeng known as Dhurogan has given them the stupid Naath/Nuer to fool them into fighting for their leadership whenever they want to snatch it from the Dinka/Jieng by force.

      Smart up Naath/Nuer and oppose Riek Machar or we will finish you one by one under the leadership of Riek Machar and his wife Angelina Teny. My debate is always based on reality and truth and no one can debate a truth with a lie otherwise you will be viewed as a lunatic or primitive. Therefore, Deng Hanbol can not debate me because I’m debating him with the plain and naked truth about Nuer/Naath. I’m ready and willing to debate any liar with the truth on this forum.

      GatJieng/ Wen Jieng!

  7. bol akuol says:

    Mr. Hanbol:

    Your first name ” Deng” originated from Jaang/Dinka tribe. It is the name of our ancestor “Deng/Dengdit” We let you borrowed it and used it because we thought you were a good Cousin. Would you please stop using the name of our great ancestor ” Deng” since you became a traitor, looter and ally of Jalaba. You can also advise your partner in looting and betrayal Gen. Taban Deng Gai to give up the name of our great ancestor” Deng”. I heard that his (Taban) Nuer Mother was impregnated by a Jalaba and not a Jieng/Dinka, hence he should not be abusing the name of our great ancestor. Also remind him (Taban) that the Republic of South Sudan was redeemed with the blood and souls of our martyrs and that it would not be allowed to be looted and destroyed by the Aliens and Busters like you.

  8. Dr.Thon Ajak, you seem to have forgotten the December incident too quick. I think if you were Dr.Riach Machar you could have taken gun too to defend yourself. This is the time to seek peace not blame or seeking revenge from any party. We are all south Sudanese and south Sudan belong to us all, not to the Dinka alone as Bona Malwal reiterated few months ago during his visit to the USA. IGAD effort has been frustrated not by the rebels, but by the government in Juba. IGAD wants peace and their proposals has been rejected again and again by out government of South Sudan. Yes, this time take it or leave it, because the neighboring countries are tired of containing refugees from the troublesome south Sudan. We need to be forced to take some nasty pills such as sanction that may bring peace in our nation. Therefore, intellectuals like you should be broad in perspective because south Sudan is a young nation that needs to be nurtured with good governance. So far, we have not seen such governance but only hate, corruptions, and war. Surely, IGAD need to force something and even so, there is no light at the tunnel yet.

  9. Nikalongo says:

    Dr. Ajak,

    I understand you tried to look partial but I liked your observation about the formula used by IGAD for power sharing in Upper Nile region. You see there is nothing national about the Dinka-Nuer centuries old conflict with roots in a superstitious and savage past. The way to peace between the two communities lies in engaging the much hated but influential Jieng Council of Elders and the less vocal and clawless Nuer Council of Elders. It is time we reverted to traditional mechanisms in peace making. It is senseless spending time and resources issuing threats and talking nonsense in Adis. No peace is going to come from the talks in Adis. IGAD Must close the peace files in Adis and transfer the talks to Mayom, Akoka or Bailet. The funds for hotel rooms can be diverted to treat and feed the hungry and the displaced.

  10. Gatdarwich says:

    Fake Dr of national traitors and AGumut, your tribal and genocidal regime of incompetent killer Kiir plus his cronies and gangs of national resources looters (the cowards Dinka elders) is in hot shits holes. You, I, South Sudanese, and international community knows that you the mightiest white completely crashed your asses in Bor battle. What did incompetent Kiir and Kuol Manyang did? Hired mercenaries to aid you. Right? But the question is: for how long will your mercenaries protect you? Time for manipulation and fake peace deal is over. Struggle will and shall continue until the lady culprit of the December 2013 Nuer genocide in Juba is dealt with or apprehended dead or alive period. You and your kinsmen will eminently reap what you sowed in Juba in December 15-20, 2013 sooner or later. So, keep crying babies.

  11. Robert says:

    Dr. Thon, you have no idea why this war erupted. Talk to Non-Dinka and you will understand the root cause of the problem which was not addressed by the IGAD proposal.

    Secondly, Dinka is a minority in Greater Upper Nile, but the opposition will not behave in way that will jeopardize their rights.

  12. Thon Giei says:

    Robert:
    You say I have no idea why this war erupted, but do you where I am? I am not in Diaspora but in South Sudan. I visited the front lines. Please enjoy eating hamburger in the diaspora. At least, I am helping the victims of the war that you support. What do the non-Dinka understand about the root causes of the conflict? Where is Pagan now? and Where is Taban Deng after tomorrow? The party is over, Ya ,chicken
    Thon Giei

  13. Hoiloom says:

    Thon Giei,

    You don’t really seem to have grasped the root cause of this conflict. Pagan is in Juba and you think Taban will follow suit? Well, coming of G 10 is not an issue for December 2013 victims. Do not celebrate yet till all the guns are silence.
    I wonder which forces the G10 command to be counted relevant in this conflict..

  14. Abraham Gai says:

    Gentlemen,
    The writer knows the reason of his writing than what you could all think of him. And calling a Phd. holder clueless is a boggling resistance without any given reason why. Don’t try to be lovers of nonsense on the internet.

  15. Angui Deng says:

    the psychopath with giant ego and most mederous call Riek will never learn in his life time until he leave ,let him kill as many as he want and of course his crazy followers will keep dacing enjoying the killing show.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.