The Paradigm of South Sudan Referendum

By: Magok Alier Akuot, Dr. John Garang Memorial University of Science and Technology, BOR, Jonglei State.

JULY 16/2010, SSN; Referendum is one of the provisions in the 2005 peace accord concluded between the two main political partners: the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM). In the deal, the partners agreed that there would be referenda for South Sudan and Abyiei after the interim period.

In this regard, referendum is an obligation for the people of South Sudan and Abyiei respectively. The people of South Sudan took up arms against the regime in Khartoum fighting for recognition and equal representation. The people of Abyiei have always been locked up in the ghettos of oblivion; they were aligned to the north under the mastery of the Arabs, Islam. They, too, fought and still fighting to ensure that their indigenous African culture is never compromised on the basis of religion and to guarantee their freedoms as well.

In view of the fact at hand, the two referenda are a redefining moment for the said people; the people of Abyiei shall choose whether to remain as part of Southern Kordofan or be annexed to Bhar el Ghazal while South Sudanese shall vote either to separate from the rest of the Sudan or confirm the unity of the Sudan. These two exercises shall take place simultaneously.

Before the excitement is ripe for either separation or unity of the South, let's examine some basic facts underpinning referendum. First, it has some thing to do with the formation of the South Sudan Referendum Commission/Bureau (SSRC/B) and its daughter states Committees; the formulation of rules and regulations to govern the SSRC/B, the registration of eligible South Sudanese voters plus the referendum materials.

Anxiety has evolved round the formation of the SSRC/B; the state High Committees, the County Sub-committees and the Referendum centers committees as well. The late formation raises fears that the outcome could be marred. This is because the whole process is not slake and unprecedented which precludes the feasibility of the results.

With the chairperson of the SSRB just recently appointed, the SSRB is bound to appoint the States High Committees with a composition of four members in accordance with the Referendum Act 2009. The states High Committees will also appoint the county Sub-committees and the County sub-Committees to appoint the Referendum Center committees. Practically, the whole process is bound to take one plus months.

The referendum Act clearly states that a member of the committee should not have been convicted of any crime even if pardoned. To get individuals who are crime free is a matter of time and patience to look round the clock consulting informed men and women who are worth recognition; and the establishment of the referendum commission on the basis of fairness and moral worth is seen as leading to the free and fair process of the exercise.

This time is not on our side with only five months left to polling day. So one asks, what guarantees that the referendum shall be done as scheduled?

This is a question for which I have no answer to give and it is what prompted me to write an insight. I am writing on the fifteenth day of July and there are sixteen days left to clock August. Within the next two weeks, let's say the states High committees might, if urgency is pursued, be formed. The states High Committees may take two-to-three weeks to establish their offices and appoint the county sub-committees who will then appoint the Referendum centers committees in about one or two weeks.

By this time, September will have elapsed and we are in October with only two months and few days to the polling.  Note here that we are talking of formation of SSRC/B only. Besides, there is also need to formulate rules and regulations to govern the institution, this has not been done! How much time do we have to do all these; none of course. This calls for extra time to be added so we can achieve the goal of having referendum done.

Another basic requirement for achieving successful referendum is the registration of eligible voters and/or possibly the demarcation of Southern borders to ascertain its geographical parameters thereto. The process of registration has not yet started; border demarcation has not yet taken shape all of which are basic fulfillments of the exercise. There are five months left on the countdown and January 1, 2011 is at hand.

The fact is that there can never be referendum without the registration of voters for any given reason under the sun and/or moon. According to the referendum Act 2009, a voter is expected to have registered three months prior to the day of polling. This is July and there is hardly any much time left to waste if we are to achieve the goal and be proud of what is enshrined in the Interim national constitutions and the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).

Registration during the April polls took one month plus one or two weeks for exhibition which is the case enshrined in the Referendum Act 2009. Let's say registration starts in September and exhibition in earlier weeks of October. This means that the training of the referendum officials in the centers will be done in November. December is a month always engulfed with lots of Christian activities ranging from Christmas to preparations for New Year, 2011.

Remember, polling is scheduled for January 9, 2011 according to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and/or the Interim National Constitutions.

During the national elections exercise, we saw the materials involved; I believe those who worked for National Elections Commission [NEC] understand what I mean. For the matter of this writing, referendum materials are not yet processed and they will never be done overnight; they need to be processed before time.  The possible scenario is that the date for polling might be pushed for reasons stated herein: ranging from late formation of the Southern Sudan Referendum Commission/Bureau [SSRC/B] to training of officials and availability of the referendum materials at the referendum centers to necessitate its conclusion.

On the contrary, there seems to be underlying misconceived notion of what the exercise is all about. Many cast fingers of accusations on the National Congress Party (NCP) as playing some games tentative to rebuff the Southerners of their right to Self determination; but that is politics which does not make us forget the fact on the ground.

Moreover, it is a collective responsibility which demands caution and adherence to its success. The fact is we are slow to adhere to the time limits and nothing changes that no matter the boiling political temperaments in the Sudan.

One thing we (Sudanese) fail to understand is our ideological differences; we are Arabs and/or Africans with varied political ideologies emanating from customs and religions like sharia law for Muslims. We are affected by adverse political changes; I term them adverse because our politics exhibited the religious backlash of antiquity.

Of course, many agreements have been concluded and breached on no basis and to say this agreement [CPA] is different is to befool our old politicians who are knowing! Southerners were to govern after the lapse of five reign of Nimeiry but that never worked; the Khartoum regime of the then period used the exploits to contravene the provisions of the 1972 Addis Ababa agreement. By the time, I wasn't formed in the womb just like my equals of the age but history never dies.

So will the referendum be a death-bed of the CPA and/or what happens if the referendum is not done? There are possible answers to the question asked.

First, there is possible likelihood of declaration of independence by Government of South Sudan [GoSS] and by the people of South Sudan to have an independent South Sudan state. Declaration of statehood is vested in the people; but it's not enough to have an independent state without exhibiting the basic elements of state: population, territory; government and sovereignty.

One important element missing for the case of South Sudan is the undefined territory as the North-South border demarcation is a political game between the NCP and South-dominant SPLM. The geographical composition of South Sudan is not legally defined yet and declaring an independent South Sudan state calls us to define our territory and fight for a common good of our generations to come. This is one last bit we must not fail to achieve if we are to reclaim our moral and political worth in the quest for self-governance.

Accordingly, the battle lies in the North-south border demarcation if South secedes. For good or bad, the GoSS is not naïve to compromise the area inhabited by the people of South Sudan since antiquity to modernity on economic; social and/or political grounds. But before we take up arms against any perpetrators of the CPA, let's exhaust all the possible scenarios for successful implementation of the referendum.

Either way, we may have an independent South Sudan with limited global recognition because of legitimacy but that could be a better option to barter for than living alongside pessimists. In this sense, South Sudan is bound, de facto, an independent state should it secede.

Until then, the Referendum is an altogether enormous exercise that calls for urgency in matters pertaining to its conclusion let alone the ICC arrest warrant on president Al-Bashir which is not a substantial reason to refute the referendum.    

Magok Alier Akuot is a Law student at Dr. John Garang Memorial University of Science and Technology; the views expressed herein are solely his and don't depict those of the University. He can be reached at: unclelouish@rocketmail.com