Sudan's contentious issues in the post-referendum period

BY: Kuany Dak, SUDAN                 
           
JULY 20/2010, SSN; On the issue of referendum yes, we have already fought the war and that's exactly why there is a current autonomous government in the south, that's why we will have referendum in January 2011. Perhaps, the majority of southerners if given chance to vote freely during the referendum, they will vote for the separation than the marginalized unity under the northerner authority.

All the arguments and speculations sooner or later stop in January 2011, that the south Sudan would either become an independent state among the 52 African states or remain in the current status of the Sudan's unity.

Though, the tough issues that we south and north would deal with fairly or unfairly lead to another war are the post-referendum issues, which I have outlined hereafter:

First, the borders between the north-south in the Renk, Abyei, Unity state, and even Blue Nile. These borders demarcation is difficult to mark because there is oil in some of the borderlines. This needs an effort to negotiate it thoroughly and fairly with consent of neighboring communities.

Second, the national debts or assets of Sudan, which the Khartoum accumulated and are estimated by IMF around $34 billion; the north wants the south if it would secede, to divide debts with. But south Sudan is not agreeing with, as the south Sudan government is saying that the north borrowed the money to buy weaponries to fight against the south during the civil war, so this is tough area of negotiation.

Third, the oil sharing under the CPA in 2005, the south Sudan’s oil is divided 50% share between the north-south in order to end the war. The north yet wants the portion of wealth sharing with the south to continue even if south seceded from the north. However, wealth sharing under the CPA was an unfair wealth sharing ever between north-south, because the north controls Sudan’s national wealth in the north such as the oil, gum Arabic, agricultural products and others resources while sharing oil revenues with the south Sudan.

The issue of transactions of goods and existing assets of Sudan is also a problem. For examples, oil sales or markets, pipelines, refineries and transportation, these will tighten any agreement when south Sudan is landlocked country. How two neighbor should agree on the fees and levies on the use of Port Sudan for the south Sudan’s foreign imports and exports products.

Fourth, the international contacts made under the national unity government or the old Sudan will be negotiated whether the south as a nation creates its agreement or keep those contacts, such the oil consortium companies operating in the south Sudan--Malaysian, Chinese, and other nations involved.

Fifth, the water treaties made between Britain and Egypt in 1929, also between Sudan and Egypt in 1959, the Sudan had 18.5 billion cubic meters of water to use while the south should decide to honor this treaty and share with the north, or join other Nile basin countries such as Uganda, Ethiopia, etc, to have a fair sharing agreement; not the one made by colonial empire with Egyptian government that the Egypt controls 90% of Nile water.

Sixth, the citizenship issue whether we will have open borders with the north without passport for entry between the north-south and establish residence in either country of your choice.

Seventh, the Sudan’s currency that's established under the CPA that the pound becomes the national currency while removing the dinar. The south will decide whether they will keep the pound as their national currency for the sake of economic union between the south-north or create their independent currency.

Eighth, the existing properties under the national unity government mainly the security, civilian equipment and military equipment in the current national government, need both sides to deal with. The south will decide on the security apparatus, south Sudanese in the Sudan armed forces and intelligentsia unit. Also, they will decide whether to keep current intelligence system, or the south should opt for their own.  

Perhaps, these eight contentious issues will be on the debate after referendum in January 2011, if the south seceded from the north. If the south votes for unity, the discussion will partly be on the CPA protocols, mainly the security agreement, wealth sharing, power sharing, and the type of government in the unity of Sudan.

We will fall back to suggestion of the South African former president, Thabo Mbeki who's on the Sudan’s panel on the African union. Mbeki said, the Sudan has several options of government to alternate if they want they can have confederate separation, common economies and united Sudan.

However, if this option of confederate system is not good for the south Sudan, it can still be good for the other marginalized region such as the Nuba Mts., southern Blue Nile and Darfur.  

South Sudan alone as the independent state will also has one contentious issue to settle first, the oil sharing between oil producing states and the national government of south Sudan. The 2% oil share given under CPA to oil producing states is not enough, but the states may negotiate to increase their share from 2 to 20-30 percent.

The author is Kuany Dak can be reached by kuanydak@yahoo.com

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