New Sudan versus Independent South Sudan

By James Ogilo Agor, USA                                          

FEB 18/2010, SSN; While the citizens of South Sudan must be waiting earnestly to cast their votes in the referendum for the self-determination of their homeland, and judging from the political developments surrounding the General Elections scheduled for the April 2010, "New Sudan" seems to be edging "Independent South Sudan” to the corner.  

A glance at the list of names of the candidates for the position of the president of the Republic of the Sudan, it appears that no single candidate might secure 51% in the first ballot. A second vote therefore looks imminent between the would-be leading two candidates. 

If the second ballot were to be between Omer Beshir and Yasir Arman, as the indicators seem to suggest, the other ten opposition candidates would in all probabilities throw their lots behind Yasir Arman. Not only to elbow Al Beshir out from the Republican Palace, but to also tie down the (SPLM) political party to their original agenda of the "New Sudan”. The recent marriage between the (SPLM) and the northern opposition parties should clearly illustrate this point.

If the second run-off were to be between Yasir Arman and Al Sadiq El Mahdi, NCP would throw their votes to Yasir, being a lesser evil than Al Sadiq whom they deposed some twenty years ago and who might this time if elected to the presidency, would most likely avenge the evils done to him during their regime. The (DUP) would also give Yasir a push, he being from the "Al Marganiah" religious sect.

On the other hand the (NPC) party of Dr Abdallah Al Turabi would opt to support Al Sadiq, being his brother -in-law and also a comrade in Islamic Constitution for Sudan Movement and an ally of the "Mahdiah" religious sect. The communist and the socialist blocks would also give their votes to Yasir in the hope that he would abide by the Garang agenda of the "New Sudan".  The marginalized African stork in the rural areas of the northern Sudan, being very much grateful to those who awoke them from sleep, would go for the candidate of the (SPLM). In short Yasir Arman is bound to the gates of the Republican Palace of the REPUBLIC OF THE SUDAN.

However, despite all these positive projections for Yasir, plus the unreserved support of the southern population, I am personally rather skeptical about the whole political situation. The southern people should not lose sight of the fact that our northern "SPLM" members are people capable in their own right of harboring an opinion which might be running contrary to ours.

The golden truth is that our northern "SPLM" members joined the liberation because they were very much attracted by Dr Garang agenda of "NEW SUDAN." We should all be aware of the story of "The Arab and the camel.” I should not be misunderstood to be trying to persuade southerners not to vote for Yasir, but rather to remind them not to put all their eggs into one basket. We should vote for Yasir while at the same time double our efforts to achieve total liberation of the south.  

 In order to launch a serious campaign of publicity for the independence of southern Sudan, we must without delay identify our target audience. Mere assumption that the south will vote 101% for secession in January 2011 is a lay political guess. Already the international community particularly the AU, UN, the ARAB LEAGUE, and perhaps the USA, CHINA and RUSSIA has exhibited their inclination towards UNITY. These communities most likely might challenge the (SPLM) leadership that it has no moral justification to run away from its original agenda of "NEW SUDAN”.

It was this policy which the northern and the marginalized citizens from the rural areas of the whole country greatly appreciated and thus they earnestly joined the movement. If the "SPLM" gained control of both the Khartoum and Juba, common sense would dictate upon them to uphold the banner of making Unity attractive. This might be the reason why they have been quite dubious in respect to their position concerning the secession of south Sudan since the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) on January, 9, 2005.

 It was actually hoped that the (SPLM), being faces of the same coin with the other southern political parties which they found inside the country, would automatically merge after the signing of the peace agreement. That this did not happen is best known to the leaderships of those parties. The worst scenario for the south is the situation which has just arisen from the selection of suitable candidates to contest elections in the General Elections to the Governorates of the ten states of south Sudan, the national, south Sudan and states of south Sudan parliaments.  

Every candidate whether ticketed by the party's political bureaus or left out for unclear or unknown reasons, is beating his chest to be the most popular person in the whole former province of his domicile. Even the "SPLM" military generals to whom the south Sudan may be looking to as their trump cards in the event  of the northern usual violation of agreements, have burnt their boats in favor of entering politics the profession which is wrongly being believed to be the shortest  cut to richness.

Unfortunately, the honorable generals seem to have not acquainted themselves with the public service regulations in respect to people who voluntarily resign from work .In a democratic election, all persons employed in public sector must first resign from their places of work before nominating themselves for election. Once you have resigned voluntarily, your post in the Nominal Roll of your unit is automatically presumed to have remained vacant and can be filled immediately if the head of the unit so desires.                                                                                                    

  However, there is no cause for alarm. The good thing is that the south Sudan has the tools and these are our target audience to campaign and publicize for our well-felt inspirations for the independent and serve reign country of our own immediately NOW, NOW, NOW. The tools Aim talking about as our target audience is some of our fellow candidates who might be unlucky to succeed in the elections.

As mentioned somewhere above they might be left redundant before they could get re-instated back into their mother units. We have also our fellow intellectuals in the diasporas who could not return home early on, because the situation was not encouraging at time and more importantly we have the large number of our "IDPS" in the northern Sudan who have been yearning impatiently to return home in order to resume normal and peaceful life. These sons of the soil of the south and others not mentioned, I am definitely sure should be able to exert such a campaign of publicity as would enable the south to free itself out of over 100 years of bondage.  Forward Ever Backward Never.

James Ogilo Agor, can be reached at agorjames@yahoo.com

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