‘Little chance of lasting peace in South Sudan,’ says US Defense Think Tank

By: KEVIN J KELLEY, From the EastAfrican, JAN/31/2019, SSN;

Prospects for lasting peace in South Sudan appear poor, an expert on the country suggests in an analysis for the US Defence Department’s Africa think tank.

Despite the warring parties’ agreement to end the country’s five-year civil war, the coming months carry a “likelihood of ongoing offensive operations, largely by the government,” writes Klem Ryan, a former co-ordinator of the United Nations Panel of Experts on South Sudan.

“This is particularly likely,” Mr Ryan adds, “if the Intergovernmental Authority on Development [Igad] sanctions on military operations continue to remain muted, signalling to the government of South Sudan that there is little political consequence for continued fighting.”

Igad has sought to help broker peace in South Sudan, but its efforts have proved ineffectual due in part to political divisions among its member-states.

Fighting has continued at a reduced level in parts of South Sudan since last September’s reaffirmation of a 2017 peace agreement, Mr Ryan says.

He notes that violence has been most intense in the states of Wau and the Equatorias, with government forces targeting areas considered to favour opposition groups.

“The fighting is linked to the control of land resources, but it also changes the demography of these areas,” Mr Ryan observes. “Reducing the presence of people expected to vote against the government is likely to be an additional aim of these offensives.”

Recent military offensives have apparently been conducted jointly by pro-government militias and opposition forces allied with rebel leader Riek Machar, the analyst says.

These operations, he adds, have been aimed at non-signatories to the peace agreement — specifically Thomas Cirillo’s National Salvation Front, which is active in Central and Western Equatoria.

An official merger of government and rebel troops, which the peace agreement envisions, probably will not occur, Mr Ryan speculates because of the inclusion of large numbers of Nuer. END


  1. J. Malooma says:

    Kill the cowards with their own swords. Kirr-Jieng must accepted one of the two; “National Army” with Naath/Nuer being the majority of the Armied forces; or let’s go two Armies one system, till further notices…. which perhaps could lead into seperation of two – three nations of South Sudan. There’s no short-cuts to this. Why not now, when the collapses of 2015 peace agreement was squarely blamed on the two armies, and also became a nonstarter/red lines for Kirr-Jieng to maintain two armies during negotiations of this current peace? Listen to this; no person nor evil in SS will never denied or intimidates the participation of Naath people in the military when it come to numbers! Why, because being a warrior in Naath/Nuer culture, and the particiption to defend the nation/society from perecived enemy, is natural and cornerstone – cultural heritage.

    For Thomas Cirillos’ NAS, they have to prepare for war because that’s what you got when walked out of the table and failed to do what needed to be done. I have mentioned somewhere on different thread in this forum that any armied group which is fighting the Kirr-Jieng regime for change must sign a memorandum of understanding or treaty with IO to protect their members and territories……!

  2. Tyson says:


    This is obvious!!!!!
    Forced peace agreements never work…………..what of half baked agreements among heartless plunders to bleed the country?
    The fools at the helm of South Sudan government have not changed and will never change.
    There is no hidden agenda in this Kiir-Bashir-Museveni MoU, which aims at supplying mercenaries to keep the tribal blood-sucking dinkocracy in power in exchange for South Sudanese resources. It is my hope that the Arab spring in Sudan will slash Bashir’s neck, while Ugandans will determine Museveni’s fate.
    The international community should NOT give any coin to this club of criminals in the NAME of peace agreement. These thieves (SPLM/A mafia) have stolen enough money from the coffers of South Sudan.They should return their loot to implement their rotten agreement.
    The gang ruling South Sudan has no idea on governance, rule of law, human rights, service delivery, Justice, equality, patriotism, economic empowerment, etc, etc. Why waste taxes payers’ money to promote and sustain criminality in South Sudan.

  3. mading says:

    TYSON. I am sorry for you man, that is what people like you can do on this web. Just preach hatred and nothing more. MR. J. MALOOMA. Come home, peace is here, leave those angry rebels a lone.

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