IGAD & Troika’s Absence of Sagacity to shepherd Peace Agreement in South Sudan is unaccommodating & dire

A Letter to: H. E. Hailemariam Dessalegn, the Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and Chairman of the IGAD,
Addis Ababa,
Ethiopia.
Date: 22 November, 2015, SSN;

Your Excellency,
It is indisputably a regrettable development that the peace rapprochement arrived at between the government of South Sudan and the SPLM–IO after so much drudgery exerted by members of the international community would likely collapse sooner than later.

It increasingly appears unlikely that the realisation of peace would ever be accomplished in view of the inactivity and imperturbable disposition of IGAD and the Troika group specifically in the face of the recent blatant breach of the Peace Agreement by the government of South Sudan represented in the creation of the 28 states in the country.

Your Excellency,
For the benefit of executing the Peace Agreement between Government of South Sudan and the SPLM-IO, the following points could probably assist in this regard:

1. The IGAD and Troika, apart from expressing mere reservation about the illegal move adopted by the regime in South Sudan, have never expressly cautioned President Kiir about the unconstitutionality and inoperability of his order number 36/2015 that created the 28 states in the country from the licit 10 states enshrined in the interim constitution of the country. It is essential to note that the creation of the 28 states in South Sudan is the handiwork of a tribally constituted assemblage known as the Jeng Council of Elders (JCE) – the de facto Parliament of South Sudan and handed over the final draft to President Kiir to formally proclaim to the nation. Worringly, the 28 states was designed with dual sadistic intent as follows:

i) To create machinations and consequently violence and ethnic cleansing among the other 63 tribes in South Sudan and prepare the ground for a tribal hegemony in South Sudan. The case of the former Tutsi ethnic group in Rwanda before 1994 is nevertheless ripe;
ii) To execute consistent land-grab policy, particularly from the Shilluk tribe in Upper Nile state, as illustrated in the new map of the country.
Such intrigues and fascistic philosophies must be exposed and prevented from being realised in South Sudan if the country must attain peace and prosperity.

Your Excellency,
2. In this regard, the SPLM-IO would certainly not be expected to relocate to Juba and form a government of national unity with President Kiir when the latter has already decreed the establishment of 28 states and which has significantly impacted undesirably on the recognized power sharing format among the pertinent parties. Changing the goal post in the middle of the game would emphatically cause altercation and instability. Hence IGAD and Troika must address this issue promptly to prevent the resurgence of conflict and bloodshed in the country.

3. The claim of the withdrawal of the UPDF troops from South Sudan has never been verified by IGAD’s monitoring team and every concerned party would like to know whether or not the UPDF troops have been pulled out from the country, albeit Uganda and South Sudan have both declared that the withdrawal has been accomplished. IGAD and the Troika should constitute a team to establish the fact on the ground. Not doing so would amount to an apparent absence of Sagacity in shepherding the realisation of Peace in South Sudan and that could derail the Peace Agreement with a potential for further renewed violence.

Moreover, reliable sources contend that the UPDF soldiers have not been withdrawn from South Sudan because Uganda and South Sudan have reached yet another secret agreement that calls for further deployment of Ugandan forces in the troubled country. Furthermore, a sizable opinion in South Sudan does not agree with the tale of the “accomplished withdrawal”. Thus the onus now rests upon IGAD and the Troika to ensure that Peace is ushered in South Sudan by swiftly enforcing the implementation of the Agreement.

4. The demilitarization clause of 25 km stipulated in the peace accord must be fully honoured by the government of South Sudan. There must not be any further excuses to this imperative section of the agreement. It was an unfortunate scenario that IGAD was not aware at the time that it was critically important for the East African body to designate the precise numbers of combatants from the two contesting parties that would be deployed in Juba during the transition period. IGAD simply requested the divergent parties to negotiate the matter amicably.

Furthermore, the term “Demilitarization” as plainly understood in the military parlance means, the shifting of military units from one location to another. This is not the case with the government of South Sudan that believes in maintaining an excessively large numbers of troops in the capital city of Juba. Another worrying development is that the government in Juba could camouflage thousands of army units as police force in police uniform in order to evade and undermine the demilitarization process.

Again the IGAD is saddled with the responsibility to ensure the execution of the entire Agreement as envisaged. The SPLM-IO and the former G10 should not be urged to move to Juba without sufficient guarantees on their physical safety and it would sound utterly naïve to maintain that the government would honestly provide the former with security. Furthermore, the government in Juba should not be expected by IGAD to likewise provide physical security to SPLM-IO officials when the latter finally move to Juba, for fear of some sort of a shady game perhaps in the offing – a customary phenomenon in Africa. It is worth remembering that in December 2013, the government of South Sudan falsely claimed that an abortive coup had occurred and was organised by Dr. Riek Machar alongside the other detained politicians, but the verity remains that no coup has ever occur in South Sudan, as contained in the AU Report. President Museveni had also disputed the coup story. The wild allegation was simply a malign exploit by President Kiir to liquidate opposition within the party and country-wide.

Recommendations:
IGAD should earnestly cogitate on the following matters:
(a) For the peace agreement to gain traction, President Salva Kiir must unreservedly rescind the order 36/2015 that established the 28 states in South Sudan;
(b) IGAD should verify a complete withdrawal of the Ugandan troops fighting in South Sudan on the side of the government of that country and make a public proclamation that indeed the UPDF soldiers have pulled out of South Sudan and to further ensure that these troops are not redeployed to the country under the cover of darkness or allowed to wear South Sudanese army flag patches on their combat fatigues to appear like SPLA government soldiers after their departure to Uganda. Those UPDF troops deployed in Western Equatoria state to hunt down the Lord’s Resistance Army of Joseph Kony must not be allowed to move to any part of South Sudan;
(c) The IGAD and Troika should supervise the demilitarization exercise and ensure its accomplishments and designed outcome;
(d) The SPLA-IO and the former detainees, known as the G10 should not be urged to relocate to Juba without the execution of the clause calling for the relocation of government troops within the distance of 25km radius.
Thank you.

Peter Lokarlo Ngrimwa, Former Lecturer,
Graduate School of Business and Law (GSBL), RMIT University
The Emily MacPherson Building, Building 13, 379-405 Russell Street,
Melbourne, VIC, 3000, Australia

Copies to:
1. Dr. Riek Machar Teny, Chairman and Commander in Chief of SPLM/A in opposition;
2. H. E. Uhuru Muigai Kenyatta, President of the Republic of Kenya, State House, Nairobi;
3. The Embassy of the United States of America in the Republic of South Sudan, Juba;
4 The British Embassy in South Sudan, Juba;
5 Embassy of the Republic of Sudan, Juba
6 The Embassy of the Republic of South Africa in South Sudan, Juba;
7. Representatives of Troika member countries;
8. Other Representatives of member countries of the IGAD;
9. Alpha Oumar Konaré, the AU high representative for South Sudan;
10. Dr. Lam Akol Ajawin, Chairman, SPLM – DC, Juba;
11. South Sudan Civil Society Organisation, Juba;

4 Comments

  1. Ghol Chot says:

    Every piece of rubbish will be throwing tantrums and run to call their backers to come and impose their rubbish into the South Sudanese people’s throats.

    What was the aim of this current war in the first place? For the so-called IGAD and Troika to intervene? The criminals who wrote this piece of rubbish even called himself to be former lecturer in Australia. Have Australians gone that low to be employing a fool like this clown?

    These criminals were told time and time again that we have taken up our arms and the so-called US and Europe evil games of regime change often work else where in Middle East, West and Central Africa. But in our South Sudan, that is not going to happen under the sun.

    The Dinkas/Jieng have take over their country. Let the evil corporate America, the so-called ethiopia and Europe come and take over the South Sudan if they can, but l believed, that is not going to happen even in million years.

    The evil corporate America and some criminals in-between think; they can Geo-politically-play South Sudan and the South Sudanese, like they are Geo-politically-playing the Syrians, Iraqis, Libyans and Ukrainians, but the opposite will be true very shortly.

    The evil corporate America, the UK, their gulf Arabs states financiers and their evil juus have step on the South Sudanese people’s feet. The Dinka/Jiengs of South Sudan to be precise. We are going to bomb their so-called ethiopia, (the US and French army bases in Djibouti), Yemen and Saudi Arabia.

    We don’t want the evil corporate America, any lighter skins arabs, Indians or a juus in our country in whatever form or shape. Fellows, remove your rubbish out of South Africa and South Sudan. War is here fellows.

  2. Choromke Jas says:

    Dear Dr Riek Machar,

    This is a letter that should be adopted by IO: it goes right at the heart of what is wrong with the implementation process. This said, if you delay coming to Juba based on the the sentiment expressed in the letter, you risk letting Museveni and Kiir have enough time to hatch their next move against you. Intelligence reports indicate that Museveni is advising Kiir to delay as much as possible (at least until after February 2016 when he expects to start a new term) your coming to Juba and the formation of the transitional government. Why? Because Museveni is in the middle of political election campaign and wishes to deceive Ugandans that he has brought the boys (UPDF) home after victory in South Sudan. Once he is back in the office, he can then reinsert the UPDF back into South Sudan, attack the IO forces,destroy the peace agreement and return South Sudan to status quo ante.

    The bus incidence on the Nimule-Juba road where Ugandans were killed is an example of contrived events which can make Mseveni be “compelled” to send UPDF back into South Sudan. Again, intelligence from inside Kiir’s own system shows that the bus incidence was in fact instigated by agent provocateur from the National Security agency.

    The UPDF, as you might have already known, have not completely withdrawn. We have information that they have hidden some of their equipment (guns, petrol tankers and at least one helicopter gunship) in Lobonok area, near the Vice Prersident’s home (Is it any wonder that the bus incidence took place at the junction to this same Lobonok?!). During the war between Museveni and Obote, Museveni’s soldeirs used to wear the uniform of the Obote’s soldiers when going on a propaganda mission. They would go to a Lowero village, terrorise the villagers (and even kill some) and then blame this on Obote’s men. Soon after such an incident (less that 12 hours-as the response to the bus incidence shows) Museveni’s soldiers would return to the same village; this time wearing their own uniform. This time they would commiserate with the villagers and blame the atrocities on the Obote’s group. Boy, the SPLA Juba has learnt from Museveni all the dirty tricks very fast!

    I leave it to you to make your own judgment based on calculated risks. Hope to see you n Juba.

    Regards.

    CJ

  3. Peter says:

    This half-witted uncivilised and less educated tribal jingoist who christens himself Ghot Chot (apparently not his real name) has the audacity to wonder about the aim of the current war in South Sudan. I would certainly state that you sound downright farcical in your diatribe on me. All conventional requirements aside, perhaps I would boldly state that your archaic and calculating murderous tribal regime that wields and abuses power in Juba started the current war in the country, as it believes that suffocating all traces of democracy and freedom of expressions would be the way to establish and entrench an absolute domination of your tribe on the whole of South Sudan.
    You and your derisory co-demagogues in the putrefying regime faked a military coup in December 2013 in an attempt to justify the premeditated murder of Nuer civilians in Juba and other cities in the country that followed later. At the moment your conspiracy with the Ugandan dictator Museveni to lure Dr. Riek Machar to Juba and murder him is all transparent and would hardly come to pass. David Athor was a victim of such scheming..
    Again at certain moments while reading your despicable diatribe I found it to demonstrably lack significant fluidity and sense of coherence which plainly indicates a huge void in your epistemological foundation.
    Your extreme assertion that states about being on the verge of bombing several countries in the world and destroying their military bases and installations would quickly warn the readers of your comment that probably an advanced stage of schizophrenia is to blame for your appalling predisposition. You can’t talk of destroying Ethiopia, the USA, the UK, and France if you and your master President Museveni are incapable of defeating the SPLM-IO.
    This is precisely where your state of delirium has crept into use in my humble answers to you. Hence, you and your bunch of tub-thumpers criminals including your president do not deserve goal but guess what….. gallows.
    Peter

  4. Alier Gai says:

    So the Article’s position is to continue with the war than implementing peace? What a shallow pretext discovered in the writing.

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