QUOTE: “A military coup needs a sacrifice and courage that you can’t find in an army without morale,” JALAL TALABANI.
EDITORIAL ANALYSIS: APR/18/2014, SSN;
Surely, here is a historic and heroic opportunity for the South Sudanese Army to timely intercede by overthrowing the failed Kiir junta and save the nation from bleeding to death.
Our independence has become meaningless as South Sudanese are viciously killing each other perhaps much more than the enemy jellaba Arab northerners were doing.
Waiting for IGAD to broker and bring peace for us is like waiting for the biblical ‘manna’ from Heaven, it never comes; the fighting men and women can bring the war to a quick end.
Historically, military coups become justifiable and even legal, when either the leadership supposedly ruling the country or the circumstances prevailing in the nation do not any longer justify the continuation of the government in power, regardless whether this enfeebled government was previously ‘elected’ or not.
Now, in our current predicament, president Kiir and the ruling SPLM party have become utterly incapable of reaching resolution on the worsening crises in the country and on good governance of the nation, so, an intervention by the Army would certainly offer a better alternative.
Interestingly, an American political scientist, Jay Ulfelder, who theorizes and forecasts political development and instability, places South Sudan 20th among 30 top countries where he predicts a possible coup d’etat might happen in 2013.
In our particularity, if indeed a typical military coup d’etat had occurred, it’d be described correctly as a ‘democratic coup d’etat’ whereby a segment of the state apparatus (Army), for the sake of stability, colludes to displace the government from its control of the state.
Accordingly, the significant features uniquely applicable in support of this ‘democratic coup d’etat’ in our nation includes the following:
a)- the military response is endorsed by popular opposition to the ruling regime;
b)- it’s staged against an authoritarian and totalitarian leader;
c)- the military oversees free and fair elections shortly afterwards;
d)- the military transfers power to new democratically elected leaders ending the coup.
At this critical juncture our nation is in, it’s clear that president Kiir has reached the status of Egypt’s Hosny Mubarak or Ethiopa’s Mengistu, as his (Kiir’s) regime has become dictatorial, murderous and unpopular, so, whilst South Sudanese are genuinely yearning for democracy, Kiir and cohorts are not true democrats.
As Prof. Taban Loliyong recently remarked, “Kiir opted to sow divisions to cover up his own incompetence and to strengthen his hold on power.” (Daily Nation, Kenya, Sept, 2013)
Obviously, with the increasingly spreading groundswell of opposition across the country against the Kiir regime and also the increasingly obvious unhappiness of foreign supporters of the nation, the urgency of such a military putsch can’t be over emphasized.
Reiterating the justification for a coup d’e'tat, it must be pointedly stated here that the on-going national rebellion by the SPLM-In-Opposition Army is unwinnable by either side and any further escalation of the civil war or obfuscation of the peace talks by Kiir’s junta only exacerbates the national predicament.
Unfortunately, what is emerging now is that the morale of the National Army (SPLA) is slowly and surely breaking down, due to the fact that the Army isn’t representative of the entire nation.
The ruling SPLM party, to say the least, is now functionally dead, polluted only by sycophants and deadwood; likewise, the SPLA, the supposed national army, its current command is under ‘yes-bany’ doggy and murderous generals.
Military coups are not unique in modern African history and they usually take place when the political clique ruling the country fails in managing the affairs of the nation.
In neighboring Uganda, the despicable Yoweri Museveni himself usurped power through a coup, so are other African leaders from Guinea to Rwanda and up to Madagascar.
Certainly, it can be intelligently conjectured that there are many within the officers corps of the South Sudanese Army who over the last 9 years of Kiir’s failed junta have genuinely become disillusioned by the gross misrule and the resurgence of yet another ethnocentric war in the nation.
More so, the hopes of the nation specifically depends on the more educated and more enlightened officers, like those real military school graduates, not just the rag-tag tribal and illiterate generals that Kiir ill-advisedly promoted to abet him in his current misrule.
The longer president Kiir and his cohorts are allowed to persist with their evil plans, the worse will become the ever-increasing ethnic divide, hatred and national disintegration of South Sudan nation.
For instance, Kiir’s formation of the murderous Dinka-only so-called Presidential Guards ostensibly from his own home area was definitely a contravention of the rules and mandate of the Army.
Even by Kiir’s own confession after the December 15 massacre of the Nuer and the start of this civil war now raging across the country, Kiir blatantly told the nation that despite the objections of the former Defence minister and the current SPLA Chief of Staff, he, kiir, proceeded with instituting the Presidential Guards.
How can the army just look on while the president unilaterally contravenes the Army modus operandi and breaks down the morale of the Army?
That evidently explains why Machar’s ragtag army is inflicting so many defeats against the national army. This cannot be allowed, never!
A military coup might hopefully also resolve the current paralysis concerning the issue of the interim period government without either Kiir or Machar, a notion also being peddled by the peace brokers in Addis.
Moreover, better still, the military junta will be transitory, composed of technocrats only who aren’t tainted by the infamy of the SPLM, and empowered to bring peace and draft a new constitution for the nation.
But of course, as typical of a military putsch, the new military leaders must take the first steps of abolishing or suspending the current one-man constitution, then dissolving both national houses of legislature and all states parliaments and all other deadwood and money-eating commissions, embassies, etc…etc…
In retrospect, we’re fully aware that all these impotent and redundant so-called national institutions were merely set up to accommodate the thieving SPLM cadres to the grievous detriment of the oppressed peoples of South Sudan.
Finally, as South Sudanese, we must sincerely accept that historically we have had little or no time to consensually coalesce as a One-People-One-Nation’ in our evolution from slavery to nationhood.
Even though we came first time together as ‘Southern Sudanese’ in the famous 1947 Juba Conference, we were never allowed to fully or firmly bond together as we sooner than later broke up and became exploited and mentally enslaved once again by our jellaba Arab North colonizers.
Once again, during the famous Anya Nya war, we solidified our nationalism but, once again, we quickly succumbed to jellaba Arab exploitation as both Abel Alier and Joseph Lagu once again failed our march to nationhood as ‘One-People-One-Nation.’
And again now, the Kiir-Machar animosity, overtly epitomized by the deadly and uncompromising Dinka-Nuer ethnic fratricide has once again let down our nation-building experimentation. We aren’t yet a ‘One-People-One-Nation.’
What is needed, seriously, is a new political dispensation in the form of ‘Balkanization’ of South Sudan akin to what happened to Yugoslavia.
Yes, the new constitution to be drafted during the interim period must fundamentally embody the creation of a three-states federalism (Greater Equatoria, Greater Bahr el Ghazel and Greater Upper Nile), so that we can slowly build that much needed national consensus to become a truly ‘One-People-One-Nation.’
Seriously, if the Army and the elitist officers don’t intervene sooner to save the nation and expeditiously bring the political paralysis to an end, South Sudan will just be a clear carbon copy of the Democratic Republic of Congo or Somalia.
Even a Liberian mere army sergeant Samuel Doe did it. Our Equatorian own son, Iddi Amin, did it in Uganda, in 1971; the question is where are the Lieutenant-Generals and Major-Generals and Brigadier-Generals now lost in the pursuit of the mighty dollar????
Must we now regret that our 2 million martyrs were lost for nothing, or perhaps, as some cynics are seriously asking, ‘why did we ever break away from Sudan in the first place?’ END