Editorial Analysis, OCTOBER 2012; Without a shred of any doubt now, and in spite of SPLM multiple refutations, South Sudan nation is painfully coming to the stark realization that the September 27 Addis Ababa peace deal President Kiir initialed with the jellaba Arab Sudan was a total capitulation and a sell-out.
Furthermore, it is becoming more clearer that President Kiir and his failed SPLM/A regime have reversed our hard-won independence into a real and absolute dependence, once again, on our former oppressors, through this peace accord whose implementation will be at the mercy of the Jellaba and not the South Sudanese.
Regardless of the unsurprisingly fast ratification by the national parliament, most South Sudanese are understandably reserved or openly opposed to the entire or articles of the September 27 Kiir-Bashir Agreement, especially those from areas directly and adversely impacted by some of the its sections.
What Kiir and his chief negotiator, Pagan Amum, are stubbornly not admitting in public is that the Addis Ababa deal was really a coerced oil-for-land trade off, which clearly is more advantageous to Beshir and the Arab Messeriya and Reizeigat vagabonds.
ABYEI: Watching one of the leading Abyei chief negotiators, Luka Biong, almost tearfully explaining the conundrum, it is a truly foregone conclusion that the Abyei accord reached is already stillborn, ostensibly, because will never ever be resolved in the lifetime of this accord. Biong ominously predicts that Abyei will end up in an international arbitration imbroglio, whose ruling if any, will not be implementable nor acceptable by the jellaba.
Forebodingly, Abyei will remain a political cancer on South Sudan, specifically because of its intractability, unless and until the ruling SPLM/A administration works out a modus vivendi, sooner rather than later, to move its resolution in future talks with Sudan.
This begets the tough question that neither Biong, Alor or Dr. Francis Deng or any Ngok leader want to hear: What percentage of the indigenous Abyei residents really want to move either South or North? As Biong aptly put is, Abyei is almost like a stateless State, neither South Sudanese nor Sudanese.
Perhaps with its oil revenues, it is now imperative for the failed Kiir government and his Abyei politicians to think of another solution such as having this region granted a special status under a UN-mandate until such a time that its resident citizens can decide in complete transparency where they want to belong.
GRAZING RIGHTS: This issue is inarguably one fatal mistake that President Kiir and the leaders of the border states of South Sudan so unwisely acceded to without imposing the necessary conditionalities needed, such as impressing a consensus on a time limit, after all, we are supposedly two separate and independent countries.
Indeed, there are no similar scenarios existing anywhere in the world today where nomads from another sovereign state get unfettered access into another independent country to freely exploit its economic resources because of some primitive and out-dated Wild West arrangements.
It simply borders on sheer political immaturity and lack of seriousness as to why the Dinka and Nuer leaders of Northern Bahr el Gazal, Warrap, Unity and Upper Nile states never jointly formulated some stringent conditions by imposing taxes, for instance, to gradually and finally phase out this one-sided economic exploitation of their traditional lands.
Ultimately, Kiir and his SPLM are just perpetuating our perpetual dependence on the jellaba at our own sovereign expense! Sooner, as typical of the SPLM system, all those Dinka and Nuer leaders from those impacted states will be coerced to accept these sell-out deals and things will be business-as-usual, which is unsurprisingly only symptomatic of political failure.
THE FOUR FREEDOMS: Combined together, and despite SPLM refutations and acclamation, these so-called freedoms are nothing but instruments for the perpetuation of our endless dependence, once again, on the jellaba Sudan and on the terms of the jellabas.
Collectively, the SPLM/A leadership disingenuousness stands out palpably since all the so-called Four Freedoms are virtual instruments for perpetuation of our unstoppable exploitation by jellaba Khartoum. Already, under Kiir leadership, the nation is quietly watching Islamization and Arab influence are once coming back due to the political castration of the leadership by its acquiescence to Middle Eastern dollar donors.
Moreover, it is only the leaders-cum-thieves of South Sudan, who have bought properties or invested in business ventures with jellaba, that are the main economic beneficiaries of these freedoms, and the South Sudan nationals will soon be massively overwhelmed by jellaba economic hegemony.
Inevitably, the jellaba will once again under-develop our nation as they have done for the last many decades of their colonization of South Sudan. Only a fool would be made to believe that the jellaba would like to see a South Sudan nation that is politically, economically, religiously, socially, etc..etc.. independent.
More importantly, however, we have cheaply sold away our freedom by acceding to the joint oil agreement whereby our oil will go northwards. Acceptably, President Kiir blundered when he unwisely shut down the oil production last January instead of first working out an alternative mechanism to sustain production and export.
Then, the SPLM and supporters blindly supported the blunders of Kiir, now the nation must painfully accept that the prosperity promised in our national anthem will remain for a long time only a dream except, once again, for the kleptomaniacal SPLM/A leadership who will keep corrupting the government.
Finally, the entire Addis Agreement is critically dependent on the unresolved wars in the Nuba Mountains, Blue Nile and to extent, Darfur, all whose fighters and the leaders still maintain close links and suspected support- politically and materially- from the SPLM/A government in Juba.
President Kiir, like his unpopular counterpart, president Bashir, needed this Agreement to buy time and cleverly avert any sanctions from the United Nations Security Council, as well as to timely avoid the predicted economic collapse in the two nations.
More critical, Kiir had to unconditionally surrender to the increasing international pressure and the fact that he completely failed to garner any international financial assistance after shutting oil production in January.
Unfortunately, the nation is in a state of paralysis and people are genuinely frustrated by the political failure, lack of services delivery, and the ostentatious theft and corruption and absence of the rule of law.
As the president grows delusional about coups against his increasingly unpopular regime, the fate and future of our nation in very uncertain, especially now that our dependence on the jellaba in guaranteed by a mutual agreement.