Archive for: January 2018

Kenya, Uganda accused of prolonging South Sudan war

By KEVIN J KELLEY, THEEASTAFRICAN, JAN/30/2018, SSN;

Kenya and Uganda are aiding to prolong the four-year-old civil war in South Sudan by serving as conduits for arms to combatants, a United Nations official said on Monday.

“The responsibility to prevent atrocities is regional and international,” Adama Dieng, the UN special advisor for prevention of genocide, told VOA.

“It is true that large quantities of weapons and ammunition are flowing into South Sudan through Kenya and Uganda.”

Mr Dieng said peace will be achieved in South Sudan only “if we have concerted regional and international efforts to leave no further options to the South Sudanese leaders to stop and start negotiating.”

“International partners have to start targeting the accomplices, intermediaries of the South Sudanese parties,” Mr Dieng said.

“Welcoming refugees who are victims of a conflict they are de facto facilitating is not good enough,” he added.

Arms trafficking

Mr Dieng did not indicate whether the governments of Kenya and Uganda are directly involved in arms trafficking to South Sudan. He also did not say whether the weapons are intended for the country’s military or rebel forces — or possibly both.

The UN panel of experts reported last November it had obtained documentary evidence of a cargo flight containing 31 tonnes of weapons that arrived in Entebbe, Uganda, in August.

Kampala-based Bosasy Logistics was listed as consignee for the shipment which was said to have originated in Bulgaria. The arms were to be transferred to South Sudan, according to unnamed sources cited by the UN experts.

Mr Dieng’s contention that Kenya and Uganda are fuelling the war in South Sudan follows a comment by US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley last week that “it is past time for the leaders of Uganda and Kenya to get involved and put pressure on President Kiir”.

Kenya and Uganda “are key players in the success of a true peace process,” Ms Haley said in a speech to the UN Security Council.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres also recently warned South Sudan’s neighbours against taking sides in the civil war.

While not naming Kenya or Uganda, the UN chief told an African Union gathering in Addis Ababa on January 27 that it is essential to ensure that “any contradictions that might exist among the neighbours of South Sudan are not translated into an influence in the internal situation of South Sudan.”

South Sudan peace will not materialize under IGAD’s Leaders

By Gatwech Deng Wal, Melbourne, Australia, JAN/27/2018;

South Sudan’s peace will not materialise under IGAD’s leaders! This is because their neutrality, failure to give a clear and timely commitment in support to bring about peace are in question since the war and negotiations began.

Warring factions under Dr Riek Machar Teny and Salva Kiir Mayardit signed the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2015 in the hope that it would bring the war to an end, restore love and harmony to the world’s youngest nation’s citizens. However, IGAD’s leaders’ undue influence over it made it fail and cost many more lives.

The CPA collapsed under the watch of IGAD’s leaders, and thus resulted into the episode of indescribable killings between the warring parties, that is, Sudan People Liberation Army/ Sudan People Liberation Movement in Opposition and in Government (SPLA/SPLM-IO) and (SPLA/SPLM-IG). This caused massive displacement of innocent civilians in the South Sudan’s capital and elsewhere across the country in July, 2016.

Similar episodes forced Dr Machar and his forces out of Juba to Congo with hot pursuit of an aerial bombardment and ground infantry combatants for more than forty days with IGAD’s leaders failing to intervene and/or condemn. As the CPA of 2015 failed under the watch of IGAD’s leaders without intervention and condemnation, even this revitalisation that is now in the process is unlikely to materialise.

IGAD’s leaders are architects of South Sudan’s conflict. There is nothing that will bring South Sudan’s peace into place while they are present in the negotiations. They are working behind closed doors in fueling the conflict and making it worse, knowing that the more South Sudan’s war prolonged, the more employments they will get from the international communities such as Troika, China, EU and others under the guise of peace negotiation.

In this case, they do not deserve to be mediators of South Sudan’s conflict while they are not playing a neutrality role as mediators. They are taking and favouring sides, working around the clock day and night to promote war in, and the destabilisation of South Sudan.

A good example is violation of Cessation of Hostilities (COH) signed on the 21st of December, 2017 by the two factions in Addis Ababa. It was violated by the government within less than 72 hours, and IGAD’s leaders neither intervened nor condemned.

Since the negotiation between South Sudan’s warring parties began, IGAD’s leaders have done little to bring about peace to South Sudan and its people because their mediation process lacked flavour of truth and impartiality. They recklessly mediated the warring parties, knowing that their mediation would mean nothing else than killing and the displacement of innocent South Sudanese.

In essence, they are not good at anything else, but creating loud propagandas and mockeries, causing more confusions, fuelling conflict, disintegration and discord within the South Sudanese people. Their mediation has never been negotiated with a good faith but with dirty deals with South Sudanese angry position leaders.

Leaders of IGAD have little knowledge in knowing that both parties have to be aware of what their interests are, and the need to be willing to engage in a give-and-take process with the other party to come to agreements together. This lack of understanding shows that IGAD’s leaders’ ability to bring about peace to South Sudan is very slim.

They are far from addressing conflict negotiation strategies that can brings the conflict to an end. That is, as mediators, they do not confront the situation’s differences differently, or consider interests separately or engage the warring parties in a good relationship-building dialogue.

Ignoring these approaches will not allow good understanding between the parties or the mediators. Even cases where resolution of a dispute is possible it would not be possible.

South Sudan’s peace will not materialise if the leaders of IGAD continue to act naively, not knowing there would be no real writ and viable political solution in the peace talks without involving IO’s leader, Dr Riek Machar. His isolation is a huge setback in the peace talks and recipe for war in South Sudan.

This is simple to know, it does not need people like IGAD’s leaders to be commonsense scientists to know it. Isolation of the main person to the conflict such as Dr Riek Machar shows that South Sudan’s peace is far from materialising under IGAD’s leaders.

Author: Gatwech Deng Wal
Melbourne, Australia
The author can be reached by email
His email is gatwechdeng@gmail.com

The facade of the International Community in South Sudan

BY: ELHAG PAUL, South Sudan, JAN/25/2018, SSN;

At long last the SPLM/A in its different guises together with its off-shoots have called the bluff of the international community. For four years now the international community’s handling of the peace talks and implementation of ARCSS leaves a lot to be desired. During this period, they have left footprints of bias everywhere.

Just before the start of the revitalization talks, the international community issued strong letters sending a message that this time round they meant business. This raised the hopes of South Sudanese and for the first time the people appeared to give the international community the benefit of doubt about their conduct of the talks.

Ms Rebecca Nyandeng Garang, the widow of the late leader of SPLM/A, Dr John Garang, captured the positive feeling of the South Sudanese people in her interview with Mr John Tanza on Voice of America on 2nd January 2018.

Nyandeng expressed optimism about the revitalization talks based on the assurance she received from IGAD. This is what she said, “And I was happy to hear that IGAD said they were speaking in the same voice. Because IGAD in the other hand also have to unite their ranks and file.”

Asked by Tanza, why she was saying so, Nyandeng explained, “I say so because IGAD was divided. From 2013, even during the 2017 there are some leaders in IGAD who are supporting leaders instead of supporting people of South Sudan.”

Given the numerous violations of the Cessation of Hostilities agreement signed on 21st December 2017 by the government, the international community initially went mute only to issue the usual statement loaded with condemnation wrapped up with moral equivalence.

Many people have been asking what the international community is doing given their latest tough statement. Nobody has the answer and unfortunately the hopes of the people have once again been dashed. Nyandeng must be very disappointed.

The South Sudanese people have for over a year now lost faith in the international community following the naked violation of ARCSS by President Salva Kiir’s regime and its subsequent silence followed by their endorsement of General Taban Deng Gai as a replacement to Dr Riek Machar.

Why the international community as guarantors of the agreement chose to ignore Juba regime’s destruction of the agreement remains to be explained? It is something that makes many people to date to scratch their heads.

Worse still, they have gone on to isolate and confine the victim, Dr Riek Machar, the leader of SPLM/A-IO in South Africa. Machar has his own blemishes, but to put the blame of what happened in Juba in July 2016 on him to the extent of victimising him is as unfair and unethical as to reveal the internecine bias by international community against an innocent person exercising his birthright in his country’s affairs.

Machar’s isolation has proven one thing beyond doubt. His absence has not brought any peace. The war has continued unabated and this should be a reason enough to exonerate this innocent man and release him from the crude illegal confinement in South Africa.

Democracy demands that there must be a level field for all to compete for the highest office in the land. At the moment that is not the case in South Sudan. An innocent man is illegally held against his wishes in foreign land while the culprit is allowed to roam freely mismanaging the country.

This culprit, the trouble maker is in Juba. He is called President Salva Kiir, an extremely dangerous tribalist-psychopath who has already committed ethnic cleansing and continues to pose serious risk to himself, the people of South Sudan and South Sudan the country itself.

The facade of the international community in relation to peace in South Sudan dressed up in statements like, “We care for the people of South Sudan”, “There will be consequences”.. etc is unravelling before the eyes of the people of South Sudan and the world.

The revitalisation of ARCSS was meant to be a serious business. Though speeches were delivered by Troika, African Union and IGAD as mentioned above, only for the regime in Juba to instantly rubbish it by violating the CoH openly without any consequences as promised.

    The international community has lost credibility in South Sudan.

The majority of South Sudanese now wrongly or rightly believe that the international community including IGAD are conniving with the government of South Sudan against them. In a sense, the international community is viewed as part of the problem and as such they are perceived as allies of the Juba regime.

Conversations in South Sudanese circles nowaday is riddled with expressions like, “We are fighting the whole world.” This collective belief can be seen from the outcome of the National Dialogue consultations results held in Uganda and Kenya.

Please see, ’19 Things Uganda Refugees Want: An Official Summary by the National Dialogue of South Sudan’ (https://www.ssnationaldialogue.org/press-release/uganda-refugees-want-change/) and ‘Official summary of South Sudan National Dialogue in Kenya consultation in Nairobi, Kenya.’ (https://www.ssnationaldialogue.org/wp-content/uploads/Nairobi-Consultation.pdf)

Gatluke Reat in his letter to Troika titled, ‘What is the difference between Hitler’s Nazi regime and Troika today in South Sudan’ compares the activity of the International Community in South Sudan with the appeasement of the Nazi regime in Germany by some European countries in 1940s.

Although South Sudanese understand that the reigning world ideology of globalisation has made everything to be seen in monetary terms including human life, they can not understand why lessons learnt from the holocaust are ignored. It is clear that the cost of appeasing totalitarian regimes eventually out ways the benefits.

Please see (https://africanspress.org/2018/01/02/what-is-the-difference-between-hitlers-nazi-regime-and-troika-today-in-south-sudan/).

Boumkuoth Gatkouth writing a week after the signing of the Cessation of Hostilities agreement (CoH) questions whether the process would be fruitful. He highlighted the continuous silences of IGAD on the violation carried out by the government.

In his article, ‘The IGAD-led High Level Revitalisation Forum & Its Prospects’ (http://www.southsudannation.com/the-igad-led-high-level-revitalization-forum-its-prospects/), Gatkouth concludes that IGAD is not neutral and can not be trusted.

Why is the international community losing credibility in South Sudan? Primarily there are three drivers. These are: direct intervention of IGAD member countries in support of the Juba regime; the application of policy of moral equivalence by Troika; and the failure of African Union to protect the “African person”.

When the conflict broke out on 15th December 2013 with President Kiir targeting and cleansing the Nuer people around Juba, Uganda joined the Juba regime on pretext of stopping genocide.

The reality on the ground was completely different. It was the government of President Kiir that was committing genocide on the Nuer people. How could Uganda then stop genocide by aiding the genocidaire? This is a question that Uganda needs to answer.

Uganda even sent its jet fighters to bomb the Nuer who were fighting to defend themselves from the Juba regime in Bor using internationally banned cluster bombs.

In addition to this President Yoweri Museveni visited Juba on 30th December 2013 and said, “We gave him [Machar] four days [agreed that] if he doesn’t [comply with the agreement], then we shall have to go after him. That is what we agreed on.”

Please see, ‘South Sudan – Uganda’s Museveni threatens Machar over ceasefire’ (https://africasustainableconservation.com/2013/12/30/south-sudan-ugandas-museveni-threatens-machar-over-ceasefire/).

This declaration by President Museveni on behalf of the regional leaders clearly proves that the region sided with the Juba regime. This explains the fact that none of the countries in region condemned the ethnic cleansing of the Nuer by the Juba regime. The crime was hashed up.

The other country in the region openly siding with the Juba regime is Kenya. Both Uganda and Kenya to date often allow Juba regime’s security agents to kidnap South Sudanese exiles in their countries.

Now all these countries are members of IGAD and given their collusion with the Juba regime, is it any wonder why peace is difficult to achieve. We move on to the Troika.

When President Kiir unleashed his tribal militia known as Mathiang Anyoor on 15th December 2013 to cleanse the Nuer in Juba, everyone who was in Juba was horrifically shocked.

Hilda Johnson, former Special Representative of the Secretary General of the United Nation in Juba at the time records her observations of the grave crime in her book, ‘South Sudan The Untold Story: From independence to civil war’, on chapter 6 under the subtitle, The Nightmare. The Nuer cleansing in Juba was witnessed by the whole world.

When I talk about the world, I mean all the representatives of the foreign governments in Juba witnessed it. In spite of this fact, the world outside South Sudan was kept uninformed and as a result no country to date has condemned Juba for the grave crimes it committed. The UN and the Troika countries kept their mouths zipped up.

Following the ethnic cleansing of the Nuer and prior to April 2014, the international community did not condemn the grave crimes against humanity committed by the regime.

However in April 2014 when the Nuer wrongly and unacceptably retaliated by killing people in Bentiu, Akobo and Bor, the international community swiftly reacted by rightly condemning the opposition for these heinous acts.

Unfortunately from then on it embarked on a policy of moral equivalence. If the Juba regime commits a crime, the international community will wait until the opposition retaliates and thereafter it will condemn both sides equally.

A good example of their application of this policy is in the areas of sanctions and press releases. All the so called targeted sanctions in South Sudan have been equally applied on the warring parties.

Surely, this can not be right. In any conflict there must be a culprit and in the case of South Sudan the Juba regime without doubt is, yet it has never been held responsible.

Eric Reeves, senior fellow at Harvard University, elsewhere argues that the balancing of moral equities plays into the hands of the aggressors.

I agree with Reeves’ argument because in my view it psychologically distributes the guilt to all the actors which in a sense absolves the wrong doer from acknowledging the reality of his/her actions and the responsibility that accompanies it.

Further, this policy has the potential to fuel the conflict and keep it going endlessly as both sides get corrupted with time and believe that their position is right.

The problem with this policy is that it suggests those applying it do not have a moral position/responsibility on the issue at hand. But is this really true? What has happened to the values flowing from the instruments of the various resolutions of the United Nations?

What has happened to the Western values of justice and fairness? Perhaps South Sudanese are not perceived as humans enough and thus do not deserve to be treated as such.

The history of European interaction with Africa speaks for itself. Its vestiges may be what are in the policy of moral equivalence applied to South Sudan. Here is where African Union should have been of help, but perhaps it may have moved on and forgotten about the value of the “African person”.

The report of African Union Commission of enquiry in South Sudan (http://www.peaceau.org/uploads/auciss.final.report.pdf) which went through sieving many times before its release clearly captures what happened in Juba in December 2013.

African Union as the body with power over IGAD has been expected to play supervisory role to make sure that the issues presented in the report are addressed adequately to provide lessons for the future in relation to the continent.

Thus for the sake of the “African person” (the civilians, women, children and old persons being raped and killed) it should have exercised maximum supervision on the conduct of the peace talks and the implementation of August 2015 Agreement on Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan (ARCSS).

So far the indication is that it did nothing. So, when the Juba regime violently destroyed the peace agreement by turning the city into a battle field in July 2016 forcing the former Vice President Dr Riek Machar out of the country into the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudanese expected the guarantors of the deal and the international community including African Union to hold the regime to account.

Surprisingly, like in 2013 they did not condemn the regime but went on to reward it for violating the agreement. Without exception they endorsed President Kiir’s blatant decision to install Mr Taban Deng Gai as vice president.

All these were done in a lightning speed without any enquiries on the fact that the population of Juba were criminally exposed to serious danger by the government.

Unlike IGAD, the West African regional body ECOWAS regardless of the interest of the member states seems more competent in handling political conflicts efficiently in that part of Africa. When former President of Gambia Yahya Jammeh was voted out in December 2016, he attempted to stick to power by depriving the winner Adama Barrow.

ECOWAS acted swiftly to protect democracy. It mobilised a regional force within a short time which saw Jammeh off with no violence, and the winner Adama Barrow installed in power. Well done ECOWAS for standing up for democracy in Africa. You make the average African person proud.

So South Sudanese for the last four years have been watching some of the regional countries openly supporting the regime that is tormenting them; Troika’s application of equal moral equities and the failure of the African Union to protect them helplessly while their suffering continues.

Now they are making sense of their experiences and translating that into a belief that they are on their own. Are they not right?

Whether the talks in IGAD succeed or not, it does not matter. South Sudanese are beginning to discuss ways of finding their own solution to their problem. That by default is empowerment.
[Truth hurts but it is also liberating]

Elhag Paul
elhagpaul@aol.com
@elhagpaul

Juba can’t do a Rwanda, so it better get serious on peace

By: CHARLES ONYANGO-OBBO, The East African, JAN/24/2018, SSN;

In Summary: If the South Sudanese refugees become a huge population, they can seize power the way the Rwandan refugees did in 1994 in a return-to-the-homeland rebellion.

The South Sudan warriors have been doing what they do best — violating ceasefires and peace agreements.

When in December the Salva Kiir government and its rebel opponents signed a peace agreement, there was an online conversation, where one of the people asked if there was anyone out there who was willing to bet that it would hold. Not a single person did.

And, indeed, a few hours later, there were reports of violations.

With the conflict still going on, it will be a long while before the nearly 2.6 million South Sudanese who have fled to neighbouring countries in the past four years can dream of going back home.

The thing about that number, 2.6 million, is that they are nearly a quarter of the country’s 12.5 million population.

South Sudan is not alone.

East Africa, Central Africa and the Horn each has at least one country where between 10 per cent and 25 per cent of the population has been displaced by conflict.

Central African Republic, a country of 4.5 million people, has some 600,000 – or 13 per cent – as refugees.

For nearly 25 of the past year 27 years, Somalis have been scattered all over the world. At the height of the conflict in Somalia, one got the impression that the country would empty, as famine added to the toll of war.

Three years ago, it looked like Burundi would go the same way after President Pierre Nkurunziza, inspired by some of his peers, decided to grab a third term, and the country erupted in violence again.

If all these crises were to get worse, to use the politically incorrect expression, the region would soon have a couple of countries where there are more chiefs than Indians.

You would have more politicians, ruling party officials, soldiers and militias in these conflict nations than citizens for them to rule over and prey on.

The flip side of this is that the countries that host the most refugees in Africa are also in the region, topped by Uganda, then Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Kenya and Sudan.

What does a country and its government do when most of their citizens are across borders, leaving them with no subjects? Is the power with them, or in refugee camps across the borders?

If the majority of South Sudanese were to flee to Uganda and Ethiopia in escalating violence, would it make Yoweri Museveni and Hailemariam Desalegn co-presidents of South Sudan, or would Salva Kiir still pretend that he is The Man?

A not too dissimilar situation played out after the 1994 Rwanda genocide, in which the Interahamwe moved with most of the people and set up a menacing mini-state across the border in DRC. It ended very badly.

Rwanda intervened to dismantle the camps, and the series of events that followed led to the ouster of dictator Mobutu Sese Seko in Congo in 1997.

Juba is in no position to do a Rwanda on Kampala or Addis Ababa. But if the South Sudanese refugees become a huge population, they can seize power the way the Rwandan refugees did in 1994 in a return-to-the-homeland rebellion.

Juba can’t say it was not forewarned. It better get serious about peace.

Charles Onyango-Obbo is publisher of data visualiser Africapaedia and Rogue Chiefs. Twitter@cobbo3

The Opposition in South Sudan must either self-finance or perish!

BY: Samuel Atabi, South Sudanese, JAN/21/2018, SSN;

The African anti-colonial and independence movements fighting in 1950’s and 60’s were a lucky lot. There was a glut of military, financial and political support, coming mainly from the anti-capitalist socialist countries led by the Soviet Union and China.

Most of the post-independence African rebel groups were/are not that lucky; they had to struggle to get any support, not only from fellow Africans but also from beyond.

Among the post-independent strugglers for self-determination could be found our very own Anya-Nya, the separatist group that was first led by the Catholic priest, Fr. Saturnino Ohure.

The Anya-Nya had an uphill task of getting both recognition and funding. It was shunned by the newly-minted members of the Organization of African Union (OAU).

The OAU was against any group which sought to change the borders of the newly independent nations on the continent, as bequeathed by the departing colonial powers.

Further afield, the Anya-Nya message of separation from an Arab country elicited no sympathy: the national interests of the Western nations dictated them to side with the Arab north as petrodollars from the Arab Middle East were flowing into their financial market and economy.

The socialist nations, on the other hand, steered clear of the separatists as they negatively reminded them of their own separatist agitators back home (for example among the Tibetans and the Caucuses region).

Deserted by both fellow Africans and the world, the Anya-Nya was left to devise its own means to finance the war effort. It embraced trading with other ‘pariah’ movements like the Simba, a Katangese separatist outfit that was equally shunned by the world.

The Anya-Nya was able to batter ivory from our elephants, for guns and bullets which were supplied by the Simba.

But, the fortune of the Anya-Nya never remained bleak for ever, it changed dramatically, when, following the 1967 war between the Israelis and the Arabs, the former opted to give limited but crucial training support to the Anya-Nya.

Later, this limited relationship threatened to blossom into a very dangerous level (from the point of view of Khartoum) when General Idi Amin overthrew the government of Milton Obote of Uganda in 1971.

Obote was a fanatical believer in Pan Africanism, an OAU ideology that underpinned the inviolability of the colonial borders referred to above. He used to arrest and jail leaders of the Anya-Nya whenever they crossed into Uganda.

Amin was sympathetic to the cause of the Southern Sudanese and was therefore suspected of giving military support to the Anya-Nya. Amin was also very friendly to the Israeli.

Thus suddenly, the future looked bright for the Anya-Nya.

But then, the leaders in Khartoum saw this too and, to preempt any escalation in the war, it decided to make peace with the Anya-Nya. In 1972, the two sides to the war signed a peace agreement also known as Addis Ababa peace Agreement.

This proves one of the usually overlooked points about the leaders in Khartoum: they have the ability to recognize ripe moments for peace.

In 2005, they saw the writings on the wall and sued for peace, again.

The Addis Ababa agreement was shuttered in 1983, when the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (the SPLA) was launched to fight the Khartoum government. Like the Anya-Nya, the SPLA had no ready support on the continent, again for the same reasons.

However, this time, the Ethiopian Emperor Haile Selassie, who had overseen the Addis Ababa peace Agreement, was already deposed, and a ‘socialist’ government of Mengistu Haile Mariam was in-charge of the country.

At the time, Mengistu was embroiled in a war against a separatist insurgency in Eritrea. Ethiopia had suspected that Sudan was supporting the Eritrean insurgents.

This suspicion made it easier for Mengistu to support the SPLA but not before the SPLA publicly renounced separatism as its war objective. The Ethiopian support probably comprised mainly of territorial sanctuary, political cover and military training.

The real major military support for the SPLA is reputed to have come from the late Libyan leader, Col. Muamar Gaddafi.

The Libyan leader was known to be a generous military supporter of insurgent groups, particularly those fighting what he termed as imperialists.

He was accused of being the supporter of the Irish Republican Army, the IRA, which was battling the British in Northern Ireland to force the unity of the two Irelands.

In 1986, Gaddafi was reported to have supplied the IRA with a massive 105 tons of weaponry. On the ship which ferried the weaponry to Ireland were 40 general-purpose machine guns, 1,200 AK-47s, 130 revolvers, over a million rounds of ammunition, 20 heavy Russian-made DHSK machine guns, RPG-7 rocket launchers with grenades and a number of SAM-7 missiles (1).

The SPLA is believed to have received a similar amount of weaponry, from Gaddafi.

Financial support to the SPLA was and has been shrouded in secrecy, but is thought to have come from various sources including business adventurers, Arab sheiks, sales of illegal commodities (timber, gold, and diamonds) resale of relief goods and others.

Despite this support, the SPLA was unable, on its own, to force the Khartoum government to a negotiating table. This was basically because the SPLA system had lacked a coherent ideology and military discipline and was blighted by corruption.

The 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement between the SPLA and Khartoum was a result of pressure exerted on the latter by the US and the wider international community.

The corruption, indiscipline and lack of clear vision, among the ruling SPLA leaders, of how to develop the new nation of South Sudan, have led directly to the present internecine civil war among the people of South Sudan.

Since 2005, the SPLA leaders have pillaged and stolen from the state coffers with abandon and impunity. Many of the SPLA leaders both in government now and those in the exile are very rich people.

Some of these leaders have formed armed groups to fight their erstwhile colleagues in Juba.

Like the Anya-Nya and the SPLA before them, these myriads of small armies cannot attract external military and financial support. Yet, their leaders are not prepared to fund these guerilla armies using some parts of the stolen monies.

The autocratic government in Juba, on the other hand, now has complete freedom to plunder the oil dollars and spend them freely to obtain weapons.

The government is also aware of the dire financial strait the opposition is in and has now come up with a strategy to sit them out by refusing to accept meaningful dialogues.

This government strategy of attrition has been given a boost by the attitude and the stance of the Mediator (IGAD, Troika, and AU).

It is now obvious that by leaning hard on Sudan, a country originally suspected of supporting the SPLA-in-Opposition (SPLA-IO), members of the Mediation have effectively cut weapon and ammunition supply to the rebel.

Yet, the Mediator has failed to curtail supplies of arms to the government, which should have provided a balanced approach.

Furthermore, the Mediator has contrived to decapitate the opposition leadership when they decided to put the leader of the SPLA-IO under house arrest, far away from the theatre of the war.

Again, there is no an equivalent action taken by the Mediator against the leadership of the government in Juba.

When these moves are combined with unfair mediation practices shown by IGAD (e.g. the government also has a seat on mediating team), one can very clearly see the overall game plan: that of strengthening military, political and diplomatic position of the government to defeat the outgunned, poorly funded and leaderless opposition.

The shortsightedness of these maneuvers by the government and its supporters in the mediation team is obvious.

It is not useful to rehearse here what the deleterious consequences of these moves are, but it is important to reiterate the legendary resourcefulness of South Sudanese freedom fighters to overcome adversities as happened in the past.

The emerging new leaders of the freedom movements will turn these adversities into a virtue.

The protracted nature of the next phase of war, wrought about by the government and the mediator machinations, will help to entrench the ‘hatred’ of the oppressive system and of those implementing it among the fighters and the wider population.

This hatred will provide the ideological underpinning necessary for perseverance in the fight against the enemy until victory is achieved.

Additionally, the absence of any external support to the opposition will provide the incentive to develop a home-grown means of generating funds to buy the necessary equipment and armament to prosecute the protracted struggle.

The opposition will sell gold, diamond, and even uranium, to all comers for arms or cash. In extreme cases, the opposition and their followers will change their Christian faith for Islamic one if that will bring them freedom.

This is not as outlandish as it sounds because those ruling in some neighboring countries did convert to Islam in order to obtain military support.

Historically, thousands of Jews, when being persecuted by the Nazi, had to accept Christian baptism to gain freedom (2). One cannot blame them for this.

It is not yet too late to solve the South Sudanese problem. END

References: 1. Ed Moloney (2002). A Secret History of the IRA. Penguin.
2. Giles MacDonogh (2009) 1938 Hitler’s Gamble. Constable.

Editorial: Who dies, if our South Sudan lives? Message to Machar, Lam Akol, Nyaba, Cirillo, Pagan, Changson, Oling, Gadet and others….

EDITORIAL, JAN/21/2018, SSN;

Specifically, this a New Year message to those opposition leaders mentioned above and all the lesser ones in the same category who’re unnamed, who’ve all assumed to themselves the titles of commanders-in-chiefs of their numerous armed opposition groups.

In spite of your multiplicity as opponents of Satan Kiir’s Juba regime, and despite all your well-written and proclaimed manifestos and declarations to oust his regime, it’s very apparent that you all clearly lack the strategical sagacity and patriotic unanimity as to how to expeditiously attain your declared goal.

The most important question to you all rebel leaders/commanders is this: who should indeed die first if your main objective is to liberate our dear South Sudan nation from the current tyrannical and terrorist brand of leadership?

This current Civil War in the country is an intra-SPLM/A war, period. It’s a war that originated from SPLM/A government’s shameless greed and gluttony of looting the national money and other natural resources with some or most of you mentioned above either actively or discretely participating in the crime.

Yes, it’s our shameless thieves fighting for every bit of the meat!

Moreover, whilst each one of you’d consciously served at one time or another in the Kiir’s authoritarian statecraft and tribalized patronage system that vaporized billions of the nation’s dollars, you, the SPLM/A ‘leaders’ were conspiratorially silent on Kiir’s nihilistic brand of leadership.

Since our so-called ‘independence,’ the political landscape of South Sudan has regressed into a more primitive state characterized by polarization, insularity, vengefulness and lack of compromise. Kiir’s prevailing assertion of tribal politics is “either we rule or we die.”

As eloquently documented by THE SENTRY of the Enough Project of Clooney and Prendargast,”the cause of the current brutal civil war was the falling out between the country’s top politicians.” That’s Kiir and Machar, and their thieving gangs that included some of you, unfortunately.

Further, according to the Enough Project, “the key catalyst for the war was the competition by all of you for the GRAND PRIZE—(the control over the state assets) principally led by both Kiir and Machar. This war obviously only serves the interests of South Sudan top leaders.”

So, not only are Kiir and Machar the main beneficiaries of the looted billions of US dollars, all ye SPLM/A top leaders, now rebels, are/were co-conspirators/beneficiaries who’ve also made off with millions, whilst the majority of our citizens are silently groaning in the misery or fleeing out of the accursed country in their hundreds of thousands.

  • WHY RUN FIRST TO THE BUSH OR EXILE WHEN YOUR TARGET IS IN JUBA?
  • Unfortunately, it’s clearly evident that you, now the self-presumed saviors, are inexplicably fragmented, antagonistic and self-destructive in the current political and the armed struggle against the Kiir regime.

    What’s intriguingly bothersome is the fact that you, all supposedly professional SPLA military men, typically decided to FIRST run away for personal safety to foreign capitals whilst leaving behind your main target, Satan Kiir, standing tall right there in Juba.

    You, rebel opposition leaders/commanders of South Sudan, should clearly understand the current dynamics of international politics which is that nowadays, the international community generally abhors and shuns so-called armed rebel-guerrilla groups fighting to topple a so-called ‘legitimately elected’ government, however detestable that government or leader is, and they also vehemently condemn abuses and crimes against innocent citizens.

    What you, rebel-generals presently fighting Kiir, must undertake first is let go of that legacy of the liberation movement which is evidently still deeply embedded in your behaviors.

    You’re no longer bush rebels and, as Hilda Johnson, the former UN Representative in Juba exactly wrote in her book, ‘South Sudan: The Untold Story,” quote: You can’t keep going back to that (former) comfort zone, that’s when something happens, you first run to the bushes.’

    As we’re helplessly noticing the consistent fragmentation of the myriad of so-called rebel groups that are presumably in the forests of South Sudan, it can only be surmised that with so many so-called ‘rebel armies,’ many of which are more or less tribal militias, your uncoordinated guerrilla war against Kiir will be messy, unproductive and self-defeating.

    Emphatically, you’re now or were once high-ranking men of the National Army (SPLA) of the newest independent nation called South Sudan. As such, like those armies in Nigeria, Ghana, Egypt, Sudan, lately Zimbabwe, and so on, who, when their governments mess up the affairs of the nation and they wanted to act, they do NOT ever run to the bushes at all.

    You know what action they took. With a few soldiers as is usually the case, those heroic commanders (from Gamal Abdel Nasser, Abboud, Gowon, Thomas Sankara, Idi Amin, Ghadafi, Bashir, Mobutu, Samuel Doe, Obasango et al) boldly marched onto the Presidential Office/Palace, arrested, ousted or dealt decisively with the resident and took over power, on the behalf of their people.

    One wonders, why didn’t any one of you, with your soldiers/armed supporters under your command, operationalize such an expedient military action to deal with Satan Kiir right there and on spot in Juba, with the intent of deposing/terminating his regime, ending his presidency and saving the country?

    Such a heroic and bold action, specially as you’re supposedly sworn to die for the country, would’ve decisively had a positive political trajectory and perhaps today, many innocent lives would’ve been spared.

    The dilemma in South Sudan presently is that there’re just too many of you so-called ‘rebel’ commanders-in-chiefs and too many so-called ‘armed rebel’ opposition groups, fake or real, all supposedly sworn to topple the Kiir dictatorship, regardless of whether they’re physically roaming in the bushes, the foreign capitals or just in the imagination of their self-proclaimed commanders/leaders.

    Sadly, however, among all of you, true or fake rebel commanders, there is evidently no unity of purpose, no strategic coordination of your military forces/resources and no political commonality.

    It’s worth reminding you that the nation and the people are more important that an individual, specifically in light of the atavistic and satanic dictator Kiir who’s infamously now in the same category as Adolf Hitler and Mussolini. Soon it may emerge that Killer Kiir has killed more South Sudanese than the Jellaba Arab Northerners ever did!

    Someone once said that “Nobody likes war, we all hate war…..it’s a brutal necessity forced on them by the ambition of a tyrant.”

    Indisputably, it’s very clear that Kiir himself, who’s unrepentantly a murderous dictator, has fatally strangulated the State and is perpetuating a reign of terror and chaos in the whole country that tragically impacted not only everyone else but most tragically his own jieng tribesmen who’re ceaselessly killing themselves in their own wars.

    By all international parameters, South Sudan is definitely now a failed state, like it or not. The Satan Kiir and his accomplices are today wholly responsible and they must be either ousted or terminated, by whatever means necessary if we’re to salvage the people and the young nation.

    The Arab Spring that had swept North Africa was quickly tolerated and applauded by most people, and the newer regimes that usurped power were immediately recognized and even abetted by the international community, regardless of whether the deposed leaders were killed, exiled or imprisoned.

    However, it’s now imperatively urgent that all the numerous anti-Satan Kiir rebel groups should and must come together, align their political objectives, their armed forces and whatever resources they possess so that these assets are properly utilized in the dethroning of the big target, instead of hopelessly wasting resources fighting petty wars among themselves.

    In our current messy predicament, the international community wont or doesn’t really care how you depose of your inept leader but they’ll willingly thereafter help South Sudan on it’s road to recovery and in the resolution of the multiplicity of problems as a sovereign country.

    YOU, REBEL LEADERS/COMMANDERS, ARE SEVERELY COMPROMISED

    There is preponderance of evidence that also many of you, so-called ‘rebel commanders/leaders,’ are allegedly compromised by your previous collaboration with Satan Kiir in either the massive looting of the nation’s wealth or in the commission of the egregious crimes against humanity on the people by some of you at the behest of Kiir.

    Succinctly, according to Hilda F. Johnson, “In a way, the SPLM leaders kept each other in the check, since most of them knew about others’ malfeasance.”

    This means that Satan Kiir practically knows what crime or crimes each of his opponents, (that includes some of you) have committed, how much dollars each one of you has stolen and stashed away…practically every scandal on each general, minister or party official.

    This is what is currently enabling Satan Kiir to blackmail some of the self-styled rebel commanders/leaders, overtly exemplified by the so-called Gen. Taban Deng Gai, Machar’s former deputy, now Kiir’s vice president, who’s slavishly killing his own people at the behest of Satan Kiir.

    The SPLM/SPLA organisation, unfortunately and historically, has been an organization that severely desensitizes and numbs it’s recruits/members to acts and crimes of inhumanities and abuses that were or are being so openly and commonly committed by its own leaders.

    This is akin to the ORIGINAL SIN, imbued in most of you, that you still carry in your political genes, attested by the intra-rebel killings going on among yourselves in Upper Nile (Nuer-on-Nuer, Shilluk-on-Shilluk) and in Equatoria (Bari-speakers against Bari-speakers) and in Bahr-el-Ghazel (Jieng against Jieng).

    Your ONE single and URGENT purpose NOW as committed ‘liberators’ once again, with all your claimed or available expertise, resources and the valor and heroic sacrifices of your unpaid soldiers-cum-volunteer fighters, is to expeditiously terminate the treacherous and contemptible Satanic Kiir’s divisive regime in the nation.

    Surely, this new struggle to oust the Satan from power must not be another long drawn-out ‘war of liberation’ like the SPLM/A war against the North, which was needlessly prolonged for over two decades because of the prevalence of and aggravation by the incessant inter- and intra-tribal antagonisms and hostilities exacerbated by most of you who’re now, once again, standing up as reincarnated liberators/leaders and saviors of our people.

    Dear our so-called ‘Rebel leaders:’ after many years of your previous long service to the Satan Kiir, be it as ministers, governors or Army generals, and after quietly but knowingly prolonging and expediting the reign of terror and death at the behest of the Satan, it’s time you all say your MEA CULPAS and start to ACT TO TERMINATE THE SATANIC REGIME immediately.

    Finally, let Rwanda not repeat itself in South Sudan just because of the culpability, inequity and incapability of the one person.

    Ending the Culture of Impunity in South Sudan: The Need to Fast-track the Establishment of Hybrid Court

    By: Tong Kot Kuocnin, LL.B, LL.M, Advocate & Lecturer, Univ. of JUBA, JAN/19/2018, SSN;

    Successive crisis have beset the Republic of South Sudan since its independence from Sudan marked by rising militias and warlords fighting for petty interests and demands.

    The most recent and more devastating one is the conflict which erupted on 15th of December 2013, due to failure of the SPLM leadership to amicably settled the procedures and mechanisms of voting within the SPLM primaries if need be, causing untold suffering and unspeakable human and material destructions. This was followed in July 2016 by another deadly dog-fight which suddenly erupted in and around J1 which is the presidential palace.

    While the virulence of the violence which shook the country transcended into unprecedented scale in particular, its tribal dimension around which it crystallized the events constituted just one episode in a thorny political and security crisis resulting into the signing of the Compromise Peace Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan in August 2015.

    In this article hitherto, I intend to dissect, interrogate and endeavour to shed light on the crux of impunity which has become a norm and just means to ascend to power in South Sudan.

    On the same vein, I concomitantly intend to bring to forefront why it is important to fast-track the establishment of the hybrid court for South Sudan in order to hold to account those who have blatantly committed these heinous crimes in a broad daylight.

    As I have incessantly and extensively written quite a lot on this subject-matter since the advent of the signing of the Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan in August, 2015 (herein referred to as “The ARCSS-2015”), it is to be essentially made clear that fast-tracking the establishment of the hybrid court for South Sudan to try those who have committed international crimes during and after the conflict provides a rear window of opportunity in bring justice to the victims of the conflict.

    In the Agreement, chapter V, article 3 ushered in the establishment of an independent Hybrid Judicial Court for South Sudan thus far known as “The Hybrid Court for South Sudan”. The court shall inter alia be established by the African Union Commission to investigate and prosecute those bearing the greatest responsibility for the violations of international law and/or applicable South Sudanese law committed from 15th December 2013 through the end of the Transitional Period.

    The establishment of the hybrid court, although it may not end the fastest growing magnitude of impunity in South Sudan, will send a very strong signal to the perpetrators and the would-be perpetrators that their actions aren’t condonable and that their conducts may have grave consequences and that hiding from accountability either under the cover of the state or abroad is no longer an option where there is a coordinated will to stamp out impunity.

    As per the stipulations of the Agreement, the terms of the HCSS shall therefore conform to the terms of the Agreement and AUC shall provide guidelines relating to and including the location of the HCSS, its applicable jurisprudence, infrastructure, funding and enforcement mechanisms, number and composition of judges, privileges and immunities of the court personnel and other related matters thereto.

    This is however, the theme of this article, ‘ending impunity in South Sudan: the need to Fast-track the establishment of the Hybrid Court’.

    Although the government of South Sudan reached a memorandum of understanding the AUC as was tabled before the council of ministers of the TGoNU last year and still lying before table of the TNLA for an adoption, the AUC has to exert more effort to mount unshakable pressure on the government to give way for the immediate establishment of the hybrid court for South Sudan.

    On this token, and on the face of the records, it is apparent that hybrid courts are set up in transitional states like South Sudan, following a time in which serious crimes have been committed on a large scale during the armed conflict and where the national justice system is unavailable or incapable of conducting trials adequately, neutrally, impartially and independently.

    However, since hybrid courts can be constituted and given both crimes under international law and domestic crimes, they may cover a more extensive catalogue of crimes than purely international or purely domestic courts.

    Thus, to have the establishment of the hybrid court for South Sudan as enunciated in the agreement for the resolution of the conflict in South Sudan fast-tracked will send a very strong signal to those who always shed blood to climb to power and it will deter who have and are embarking on the same journey.

    It is to be made succinctly clear that the culture of tolerating impunity for crimes committed against innocent civilians and against non-nationals in this country is coming to an end as those on the onslaught, attack, barrage and onrush to commit more atrocities and inhumane acts against the innocent civilians must be brought to book of justice.

    As perpetrators of the most serious and heinous international crimes regularly find refuge in other countries, in particular in the aftermath of an armed conflict and a change of government in their respective countries, the experiences of the European countries provide for good lessons and best practices to be adopted if the hybrid court is fully established.

    Equally put, suspects of such crimes who benefited from impunity in south Sudan do travel abroad to receive medical treatment, attend conferences and thereby provides an opportunity for their apprehension and investigation into their alleged conduct during the war and subsequent crimes alleged to have been committed under their watch.

    On the same note however, the prosecutions of crimes under international law with help of international community and international experts will be instrumental in the promotion of the norms of international law in South Sudan.

    At the same time, the involvement of the international community counteracts perceptions of bias and lack of impartiality that may be associated with trials carried out by judges and prosecutors who had worked under a prior repressive regime.

    This is why the African Union Commission should consider fast-tracking the establishment of the Hybrid Court for South Sudan to deter potential perpetrators who are embarking on the business of lynching the most innocent people. They have been on the onslaught, barrage and attack innocent population and it is high time that the court is establish to bring to book of justice the leaders of these criminals.

    This is to ensure a long lasting legacy for the rule of law and human rights and equally contribute to ending a culture of impunity by ensuring the prosecution of particular serious crimes committed during and throughout the period of the conflict.

    The cost of impunity has been very high on innocent South Sudanese and it is high time to end that culture. Establishing hybrid court for South Sudan to try those who bear greatest responsibility for grave and serious international crimes committed during the armed conflict appears to be an effective response to address the myriad challenges of handling serious international crimes at the national level.

    The establishment of the hybrid court for South Sudan sends a strong signal to perpetrators that their actions may have serious consequences and that the culture of evading and subverting justice is coming to an end.

    They must be held accountable for any crimes meted on any innocent South Sudanese whether during or after the war.

    The author holds a Bachelor of Laws (LLB) degree from the University of Juba; a Master of Laws degree (LLM) in Law, Governance & Democracy from the University of Nairobi; and a Second Master of Laws (LLM) Candidate at the College of Law of the University of Juba. He is an Advocate before all courts in South Sudan. He has extensively been writing on the independence of the Judiciary, judicial reforms, human rights, and comparative constitutional law, Peace & Justice, Good Governance and international criminal law. His areas of Research interests are in human rights, good governance, rule of law and access to Justice. He be reached at tongbullen@gmail.com

    Open Letter from Rumbek Community in Diaspora to President of Republic of South Sudan, Mr. Salva Kiir Mayardit and the International Community

    From: Rumbek Community Members, JAN/11/2018, SSN;

    Dear President Salva Kiir Mayayrdit and International Community:

    We, sons and daughters of Rumbek Community in diaspora: Australia, USA, Canada, Europe and many other places of refuge all over the world, are very much concerned and disappointed about the death and suffering of our people in South Sudan in general and Rumbek area of Lakes State in particular. Communities in Lakes State have been experiencing cycle of violence, encouraged and left to fight amongst themselves.

    When the peace agreement (CPA 2005) was signed and government of South Sudan was instituted under your leadership, you did nothing to stop this violence. But the first responsibility of any government in the world is to provide security and peace for its citizens. Instead, your government failed completely to do this in Lakes State.

    Communal fighting in Rumbek became worst from 2013 when a tribal war broke out between your forces and forces of Dr. Riek Machar, the former Vice of Republic of South Sudan. We strongly believe that your government began to directly supply the rural youth with guns, and as a consequence law and order completely broke down. Some of your supporters in Lakes State government argued that rural youth should be armed to go and fight the SPLA-IO.

    The people of Rumbek (Politicians, chiefs, women, youth and representatives from Diaspora), have tried their best to reconcile their communities and to bring peace to the area, but these attempts have failed because your governments in Juba and Lakes State did not do their part.

    There has been about ten-community peace conferences/meetings held in Rumbek to discuss how to bring peace in the area, but they have all come to nothing because your government did not implement the resolutions of peace meetings.

    You have been quoted in one of your meetings with youth of Rumbek as saying “Agaar people are very intelligent people and they are killing themselves to go and book a good place underground before we could go there”. This was in July 2015 on the occasion of opening a Women Hospital in Rumbek which was named after you as Head of State.

    Do you think that another tribal government is going to be set up after death? This is a very irresponsible statement and indeed insulting to the people of Rumbek. Also in a peace conference in Rumbek on 17th Feb. 2015, you admitted that there are people in your office who are working against you; you said it in Dinka language (“anↄἠ kↄc jὂὂr hꜫn tὲn mὲktὲbic”).

    This was in response to a factual confrontation that guns which were only found in the hands of your security personnel in Juba were found being sold to rural youth in Rumbek area. You have completely failed to fight corruption in your office although you are informed about these corrupt practices every time.

    The biggest problem identified in many peace meetings is illicit supply of arms to the civilian rural youth in the villages. Sources of arms supplied to Lakes civilian rural youth are from government stores. Well known generals in the office of President Kiir are illegally selling arms to the youth in Rumbek. Whenever communities fight in Rumbek, the generals rush their arms to sell them to both sides of the fighting communities. They are profiting out of trading guns and ammunitions for the lives of our people.

    To prove it, there was a time in 2014 when a big truck carrying arms was caught on a road check point in Wulu County of Lakes State. The truck driver gave telephone number of the owner of the arms (a general in the office of President Kiir Mayardit) to the security guards on the road. The general threatened the road security guards to let the truck go to Rumbek otherwise he would deal with them.

    The same owner telephoned Governor of Lakes State, Matur Chut Dhuol, and talked to him from Juba. The owner of the arms in the truck threatened the Governor, Matur Chut Dhuol, to take care of his property and the truck was driven to Rumbek, only to disappear the following day. As a result, the arms in the truck were taken and sold to the fighting youth in the villages of Rumbek.

    It is almost impossible to bring peace to Lakes State, Rumbek area, and the whole country if the government cannot provide security. Maintenance of security in South Sudan requires that corruption of selling government arms to civilian youth must be stopped.

    Peace exists where there is law and order and no corruption. Without peace there cannot be any development also. Insecurity and corruption are enemies of peace and development.

    The People of South Sudan are worst off now than in 2005 when peace agreement was signed between South and North Sudan, because the government of President Salva Kiir has promoted insecurity and corruption. The number of internally and externally displaced people speaks volumes about the situation in South Sudan.

    According to UN sources in South Sudan, half (6.5 million) of the population of South Sudan was declared in 2016/2017 to be under starvation. Most schools and health facilities are not functioning. Agricultural production in rural areas of South Sudan has been reduced to the minimum because of insecurity, so hunger and malnutrition are rampant. Roads have not been maintained for the last four years and transport has broken down between cities and towns. Furthermore, roads are insecure because of armed youth groups everywhere.

    It was recommended in previous peace conferences that the government in Juba should disarm civilian youth in Lakes State and neighbouring states, and establish security stations in borders of every state e.g. Madol between Lakes and Unity States.

    After establishment of security and maintenance of law and order, people accused of committing crimes (e.g. killing of people and Cattle rustling) should be apprehended and taken to court for settlement of cases. Justice must be done and seen to be done and impunity stopped if peace is to be built and maintained. Unfortunately, all these resolutions fell on deaf ears and nothing was done by the dysfunctional governments of President Kiir in Juba and Lakes State.

    UNITE TO CHANGE KIIR’S OPPRESSIVE REGIME

    It is our considered opinion that all people of South Sudan must unite and change President Kiir’s oppressive regime by all necessary means. No one faction, political party or tribe can do this alone. A united opposition will then institute a government of national unity to bring peace and stem out corruption, and begin a process of development in all communities of South Sudan.

    Priority of development will be focused in the most marginalised communities; for example Murle, Taposa, Kachipo and people of Raja. Universal free education of all children (boys and girls) of South Sudan, road network construction and food production will be on the top of the agenda of the new government, besides provision of security through a united national defence force.

    The new government will employ people in every department based on merit and capability of the individual, and ministers will be appointed based on each expertise, experience and non-corrupt records. All civil or political employees will be accountable to the people as per the institutions charged with such responsibility in the constitution.

    Nobody should be above the law, including the president of the country. Everybody should be accountable and equal before the law. Rumbek community in diaspora firmly believes that unity of all South Sudanese can bring about these positive changes to South Sudan as a whole including Rumbek community.

    The destiny of the people of South Sudan is one, whether we have a bad government like that of Salva Kiir, or we form a good, unity, inclusive democratically elected government of South Sudan.

    Furthermore, Mr. President, your method of unconstitutional appointment of governors, ministers, ambassadors and employees in all departments fuels communal conflict in many parts of the country because it is corrupt and based on no merits.

    In 2010, governors were directly elected by the people in each state according to the constitution. Mr. President, you have been violating the constitution that is supposed to be a covenant between you and the people like other nations of the world, in that you dismiss and appoint state governors, and other stakeholders using presidential decrees than through constitutional authorized procedures..

    Current presidential decrees of mini-tribal division of states shall be abolished, and any proposal of federalism will be scientifically researched, debated and decided by people and their parliaments if worthy to be adopted as it has happened in many other countries of the world. Such a federal system should be based on socio-economic and geographical factors only.

    APPEAL TO INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY:

    We appeal to international community, African Union member States, IGAD members and all people of goodwill to revive the peace agreement (ARCSS) which was signed in Addis Ababa in August 2015. Peace in Lakes State and in Rumbek in particular will follow if this peace agreement is fully implemented in spirit and letter.

    We in diaspora are very much appalled by death toll rising each day in our state, and do not see any light at the end of the tunnel as long as the civil war continues in South Sudan. If President Kiir does not want the terms of this peace agreement, he should be forced to resign like what happened with former President of Gambia, Mr Yayha Jamie and President Mugabe recently.

    This agreement promises peace and unity for the people of South Sudan. The agreement guarantees democratic system of government through a fair and transparent elections. The agreement declares to fight corruption, to establish justice, law and order.

    The agreement transforms national security organs from being a tribal militia to a national defence force that includes every tribe. Recruitment into national defence force will be on the basis of capability and merit; not tribal affiliation or political support. We strongly believe that implementation of the peace agreement in South Sudan shall also bring peace and development to Rumbek people and all people of South Sudan.

    Revitalization of the agreement should not be based on whether President Kiir accepts it or not. After all, his term of office has expired since 2015. In fact failure of the agreement in 2016 was because President Kiir was allowed to head the transitional government of national unity (TGoNU).

    This time around, the head of transitional government should be somebody who would not contest in the upcoming elections. This will ensure that the next elections would be free, fair and transparent.

    ADDRESSING THE ROOT CAUSES OF PROBLEM IN SOUTH SUDAN:

    The people of South Sudan needs peace and development, not chronic humanitarian aid. Although humanitarian aid rescues victims in emergency situations, providers of international humanitarian aid only address symptoms of the problems. Humanitarian aid is a temporary solution to the problems of South Sudan.

    Addressing the root causes of the problem in South Sudan – insecurity and corruption in the government – should be the priority of friends and people of South Sudan. Therefore bringing and building peace in South Sudan is a basic and permanent solution and a first demand of the people of South Sudan.

    Developmental projects and other socio-economic services will automatically follow in an atmosphere of peace, good governance and unity of South Sudanese people when we all unite to successfully change the corrupt and divisive government of President Kiir.

    To shed light on the severity of the problem, we have tried to collect data of people killed in Rumbek Agaar community sectional fighting since the beginning of the conflict in 2001. We could not find full data from all sections of Agaar Dinka sections, but this is a beginning, and we will continue to do more research in this matter in the future.

    We intentionally left out casualties from other neighbouring communities that have been fighting amongst themselves or Agaar sections, because of unnecessary sensitivity of such a data. Below is a table showing combined casualties from both sides of Agaar sections fighting one another. The number of causalities could be more.

    Agaar sections Fighting against Agaar section People killed on both sides Remarks
    Pakam V Rup 463 Since June 2014
    Rup V Kuei 116 Since August 2013
    Gony V Thuyic 166 Since 17th Sept. 2001
    Dhiei V Kuei 36 Since Nov. 2010
    Kok-Awac V Kok-Ker 138 Since Feb. 2013
    Dur-Bar V Dur-Chek 64 Since Sept. 2013
    Panyar V Nyuei 73 Since March 2013
    Panyar V Aliaab 37 Since Oct. 2014
    Gony V Aliaab 12 Since Nov. 2014
    Dur-Bar V Rup 25 Since June 2016
    Total 1,130

    Conclusion

    We strongly urge our people of Lakes State and people of South Sudan in general to unite and get rid of President Kiir’s corrupt and divisive government. They should also discontinue revenge killings and maintain peace and justice amongst themselves. We appeal to UN and NGOs to provide humanitarian assistance to those displaced internally in Lakes State by this communal fighting.

    President Kiir’s recent decree state of emergency in Lakes State is a false propaganda nuisance and too late. Why did he not implement all the resolutions of previous peace conferences? This is just a delaying tactic to stay in power.

    If he is serious about disarmament in Lakes State, he should first arrest generals who sell arms to civilian youth of Lakes State, and make positive, effective and efficient changes in Lakes State government. Disarmament must be carried out in all parts of South Sudan.

    UN/UNMISS should also be involved in the disarmament process to adopt best practices used elsewhere in Africa or other continents. Meanwhile, disarmament must not be used as a means of looting and killing civil population in Rumbek or anywhere in South Sudan.

    . Signatories
    1- Mr. Johnson Makuei Mangar -Chairman of Rumbek Community in Western Australia
    2- Fr Matthew Mading Malok -Chairman of Konybai Peace Initiative
    3- Mr. Beny Mature Mathiang -Treasurer of Rumbek Community in Western Australia
    4- Mr. Eli Magok Manyol -Member of Konybai Peace Initiative
    5- Manyang Maker Tulba – Rumbek Community Youth Leader in Western Australia

    Who’s to blame for the potential disintegration of South Sudan? A Response to Jieng CE Joshua Dau Diu

    By: James Yiel Yoak Nhial, 65Yoaknhial@gmail.com, JAN/11/2018, SSN;

    A response to an Article written by the co-chair of Jieng council of elders Mr. Joshua Dau Diu entitled; South Sudan is at the verge of disintegration, dated 14th October 2017.

    It is said in the Holy Bible that you say the truth and the truth will save you. The current crisis that plunged our lovely country into political abyss, came about political and administrative differences that emerged within the ruling SPLM party amongst senior members of the party on issues related to reforms on economic, social, political and administrative, is the main cause of this crisis especially when some members within the party expressed their intention to contest in the coming elections for the presidency.

    This state of affairs reached its stalemate in December 2013 where president Kiir, his Jieng council of elders and positions seekers conspired to assassinate the former vice president Dr. Riek Machar and throw other opponent to jail or eliminate them as well.

    To carry out smoothly the well planned and coordinated action, members of the Nuer soldiers in the presidential guards ( known as Tiger Battalion), must first be disarmed. To disarm a soldier by force especially a Nuer soldier is an eminent invitation of violence and this was the beginning of hostilities resulting in the current civil war of South Sudan.

    The country could not have undergone this terrible situation had president Kiir and his Jieng council of elders contained and confined the situation to the army without massacring innocent unarmed Nuer civilians.

    Because the primary goal was not to kill Riek Machar alone, but to kill as many Nuers as they find to satisfy their (Dinka) lust for revenge on unarmed Nuer civilians escalating the war to greater Upper Nile where the majority of these victims come from.

    The question is why target one ethnic group and not the other groups if it were not a long term plan by Dinka? If anybody could believe the fabricated coup attempt, does that warrant the mass killings of civilians who have nothing to do with who rules and who is going to rule the country?

    If it was not a planned action why did general Paul Malong, President Kiir and the Jieng council of elders came up with project of Dinka militias before December 2013`s incident? Why moved the recruited 15,000 Dinka militias from Warrap and Aweil the home towns of Malong and Salva Kiir,and stationed them in Juba before the war if the massacre of Nuer was not a planned thing?

    Based on my practical experience and as one of the targeted prey, the foremost and fundamental root cause of South Sudan`s problems or crisis is the love of power and wealth by Dinka tribe aggravated by their lack of a nation building and/or vision, their DNA corruption in their veins, bad governance, absence of transparency and accountability and above all lack of nationalism to hold this country together as one political entity.

    The ex-pastor and in-law Mr. co-chair of Jieng council of elders Joshua Dau stated that, when it became impracticable to adapt the ACRSS to the situation due to that alien characteristic nature, and upon mediators insistence to enforce it, the consequence was the fist battle in J1 palace in Juba on 8-12 July 2016 between the rebel forces of Riek Machar Teny and the government forces; end of statement.

    In another statement, by Joshua, stated that the fist fight in J1 palace, was the second coup attempt of Dr. Machar.

    Which is which now; was the dogs fight in J1 was a result of government refusal of implementation of the impracticable ACRSS as you called it or was it an attempted coup by Dr. Machar as you stated earlier? How can Dr. Riek stage a coup with only 70 body guards of his and his ministers?

    I personally thought you were one of the elders who could have helped mend the Nuer – Dinka relations instead of planning evils against Nuer. Mr. Joshua, you have forgotten that you were elected to the assembly by the Nuer of Fangak who were the majority in preference to their own son that you are now working very hard to see that they are eliminated?

    Mr. co-chair, as to the second coup attempt as alleged by you in 2016, is rubbish and too late for lies fabrications again to mislead public and world opinion, for almost everybody knew what happened and how it happened; however, Am never surprised or worried about the Dinka`s regime lies fabrications as it is their normal habitual behavior.

    In 2016, in Juba Grand Hotel where we were putting up, you asked us and I quote, now you have mistakenly brought the children (meaning SPLA-IO soldiers) to Juba how will you take them out? (Me cia gaat kule nyakge, bia ke kule luoijiok I di?) End of quote. Your statement indicates that there was not only a planned an attack on SPLA-IO, but also to assassinate the SPLA-IO leader Dr. Machar.

    Mr. Joshua, you know very well that both December 2013 and July 2016 were well planned and coordinated by Your Jieng Council of elders, general Paul Malong and some traitors from the SPLM/A-IO.

    My common sense tells me that the plan includes possible elimination of the two leaders Kiir and Riek, after which Paul Malong becomes the president, Taban Deng becomes the first vice president and Lol Gatkuoth becomes the petroleum minister.

    To prove that the December 2013`s Nuer massacre was a planned action, I would narrate the events that led to the massacre:-

    • General Paul Malong, the then governor of Northern Bhar El Ghazal state recruited 15,000 militias from among Dinka of Warrap the home Town of president Kiir, and Aweil the home Town of general Malong. These primitive Dinka militias were trained, equipped/armed and moved to Juba before the December incidence and were instructed to kill the Nuer without mercy.

    The resources used for the up keep of these militias were drawn from the public chest, e.g the money alleged to have been stolen from the president`s office was part of the funding of these militias.

    • When the shootout occurred in Tiger Battalion in the night of December 15th 2013, the house of Dr. Machar was stormed and heavily shelled with the intention of killing him which has been the primary goal of his enemies in addition to the lust of mass killings of Nuer (ethnic cleansing) which was actually carried out on 16th – 20th December 2013 by Dinka militias mathiang anyor and Dinka`s SPLA and their national security organs.

    Co-chairman of the Jieng council of elders, let me refer you to the AU investigation findings of the Nuer massacre in Juba in December 2013;
    The investigation carried out in 2014 by the AU, has released the final findings on 17th October 2014 as follows:

    • That widespread and systematic killings took place in Juba in December 2013.

    • That the killings in Juba were carried out pursuant to a state policy and were coordinated also possibly planned,

    • AU investigators found no evidence of a coup attempt as claimed by president Salva Kiir , but, instead concluded that a gunfight within the presidential guards was the immediate trigger for further violence in which Dinka members of the presidential guards and other security forces targeted Nuer soldiers and civilians in and near their homes,

    • A number of Kiir`s personal associates and presidential guards commanders are named in the report as operational sectors commanders who led the operations that the AU commission said resulted in mass killings in residential areas in mid-December 2013 including, Muniki, 107 (Miaya Sabaha), Khor William, New site, Gudele one, Mangateen, Custom, Nyakuron and Jebel. Tens of thousands of members of Nuer ethnic group fled to the UN Tongping base in the wake of these killings and still remain under UN protection today and

    • The detail numerous accounts of murders, rapes, tortures and other atrocities including cases of forced cannibalism perpetrated by the members of the army and security forces Articles; 810, 811, 812, 813, and 814 of the report, make that such acts were carried out with the degree of organization and planning.

    Not because of the AU findings, but, the bringing in of the 15,000 trained Dinka militias to Juba before the December 2013th incidence by Dinka led government was by itself is a proof of the intended massacre of Nuer ethnic group in Juba and elsewhere in South Sudan.

    I know the truth is always bitter Mr. Joshua but, resorting to telling lies both to cover up evil deeds or for economic interests, will not help us get out of this nasty situation and eventually may lead to disintegration of this nation and the blame will squarely rest on Dinka tribe.

    I want to shed light on Mr. Joshua`s root causes of Nuer- Dinka conflict:

    Joshua stated that the Akobo incident of 1975 was one of the root causes of Nuer – Dinka conflict.

    The Dinka – Nuer unstable relation is not something new, but is a historical struggle between the two cousins over scarce resources.

    Nuer officers and men killed their commanding officer Colonel Abel Chol (a Dinka) and subsequently deserted the army and formed Anyanya2 1976 – 1983 stated Joshua.

    Anyanya2 was not formed in 1976, but was formed right away after Addis Ababa Agreement by those discontented Anyanya1 with the Agreement and were in existence before 1975 of Akobo incident with their head quarter in Bilpam under different commanders at different times.
    Mr. Joshua, one must write something one is dead sure of substantiated with dates and places not to leave room for any doubt.

    • In Akobo incident of 1975, who shot Colonel Abel Chol, or Abel Kon as he was known? Colonel Abel was shot by Sergeant Bol Kur who was not a Nuer as you would like to hear. Majority of Nuer officers did not participate in the mutiny and that was why they remained in the barrack and also that was why they were charged of negligent and irresponsibility and eventually court martialed and shot in the morning of July 1975 in Malakal town and others were sentenced to long term imprisonment. Yes, Abel Chol, comes from Dinka ethnic group and that was not the reason for his death as you seem to advocate: but there were Dinka officers and men in Akobo during the incident.

    • Anyanya2 as I said earlier, was not formed as a result of Akobo mutiny, but, cemented the alredy existing movement (Anyanya). Those who were there before Akobo incident, include, Gordon Koang Chol, Bol Kur, Vencent Kuany, Gabriel Gatwech Chan and many others as I was there in Addis Ababa when the movement was established. The political figures were not Nuers but Dinka of Bhar el Ghazal namely, Gordon Mortot and Elias Aduang. The two leaders Elias and Gordon disagreed right away on logistical issues, and Gordon went back to London and sometime later, Elias left for Italy.

    The first split of the SPLM/A in Itang in 1984 was not based on ethnicity if it ever were, Dr. John Garang would not have led the movement as the bulk of the soldiers by then were Nuer; uncle Akuot Atem would not have been chosen by Samuel Gai and William Abdalla Chol to be their leader which was one of the reasons for the split besides the New Sudan ideology.

    Dr. John Garang and his two military generals, Major Kerbino Kuanyin Bol who shot the first bullet in Bor and major William Nyuon Bany who in June 1983 rebel in Ayod and joined Kuanyin on the Ethiopian border were ideological and leadership differences.

    New Sudan ideology by Garang`s group was to liberate the whole Sudan and change the system of governance; while the other group of Akuot Atem, Samuel Gai, and William Abdalla Chol were for the liberation of South Sudan to become an independent political entity.

    Differences on who to lead worsened the situation, as Dr. John wants to lead the movement while Samuel Gai and William Abdalla wanted uncle Akuot Atem to lead the movement resulting in dislodging Akuot`s group to South Sudan`s border where they were ambushed by an air lifted SPLA resulting in Gai`s death.

    Meanwhile, Anyanya2 kept themselves aloof from the new movement, the SPLA and was still in their head quarter in Bilpam. The first mistake committed by SPLM/A was the attack on Anyanya2 in Bilpam forcing them to joined Akuot and Samuel`s group at the South Sudanese border.

    The 1991 incident that has become Dinka slogans of the day, was not condoned by all Nuers and not to be blame on Dr. Riek as the white army were not recruited, trained and equipped by Nasir faction of the SPLM/A of Dr. Riek and therefore, have no control over them unlike Dinka militias mathianganyor, gelwang, and kutkubeny who were and are still under direct control and instructions of SPLA Dinka army commanders.

    Two hidden mass killings of unarmed Nuer civilians in Atar Aradeba in 1988 where hundreds Nuer women and children who were traveling in a convey of Anyanya2 were rounded up after ambushing the Anyanya2 force were cruelly murdered simply because they are Nuers despite the fact that my father-in-law Peter Riir Puk whose daughter Nyaruac Riir, my wife and son of 11 years old were among the executed civilians; while Peter Riir was one of the SPLA alternate commanders in Rub Nyagai in Bentiu by then.

    The victims were selected on ethnic groups, Shilluk, Dinka and Nuer. Nuer group were led away and killed in cool blood. Those fighting Anyanya2 in almost all frontlines, were Nuer themselves and not the Dinka and every Dinka of SPLA soldier knows this very well. There are survivors of Nuer wives from Shilluk who were not discovered they are Nuer wives who can testify about the incident.

    In 2011, in Kaldak, serious atrocities and human rights violations committed against unarmed Nuer civilians including running over people by tanks, burning people alive in their shelters/huts and in reeds along the river in addition to those who died of thurst and hunger in the forest and the Nuers are still supporting the dictatorial and the most corrupt rule of Dinka.

    I was one of the SPLM/A supporters against Anyanya2 for two reasons, one is that Dr. Garang was the right person to lead the Movement educationally and militarily against uncle Akuot Atem as he was an old man, secondly, Anyanya2 collaborated with the enemy (the Arab) which I personally see as the betrayal to the cause, but differ in total liberation of Sudan.

    People are silent about these killings even the Nuer themselves have forgotten evil deeds of Dinka using public apparatus in the name of the de facto-government.

    Revitalization of failed August 2015 Agreement on the Resolution of the conflict in South Sudan ACRSS by self-styled international and regional bodies with their allies and institutions in UN, EU, Troika, IMF, world Bank are using AU, and IGAD to deal the last catastrophic stroke of disintegration of the land and people of South Sudan, stated Mr. Dau.

    Shame on you Hon. Co-chairman of Jieng council of elders, calling the international and regional bodies who have been and are still working day and night to restore peace to this messed up country, self-styled bodies?

    Are you Mr. Joshua and your Jieng council of elders concerned about the suffering of South Sudanese people including the flight of Dinka Aweil and Warrap to northern Sudan in search of food?

    Are you not moved by the deep rooted hatred by the 63 southern tribes towards Dinka tribe for inhuman deeds carried out against them?

    For how long do you think the broken social fabric between tribes/communities will mend or rebuild when you the so called Jieng council of elders have become source of evil.

    Am deeply and terribly moved by the degree of atrocities being committed by your SPLA and Dinka militias against innocent South Sudanese masses.

    About the self-styled powers in the affairs of South Sudan, instead of being grateful to these foreign organizations who brought August peace Agreement that you have been violating since its signature and finally threw it to dustbin in July 2016, and are still trying to bring peace again to this country and you still have the gut of calling them names.

    Have you forgotten that it were these self-styled international and national organizations particularly America under Obama`s administration who kept you in power since 2014 when Ugandan army was sponsored and ordered to militarily intervened in the internal war of South Sudan?

    You know very well Mr. Joshua that had it not been the Ugandan military intervention in 2014, things would have been quite different today and would not have been to the enjoyment of Jieng council of elders.

    In conclusion, I agree with you Mr. Co-chairman, that without digging into the real root causes of the problem or conflict in this country where those responsible for this mess are made to account for their actions including your Jieng council who are the real advisors to president Kiir, general Paul Malong who recruited Dinka militias who massacred innocent Nuer civilians in December 2013 in Juba causing this cycle of killings, this country will not witness peace.

    In order to help mend and rebuild the broken social fabric and deep rooted hatred among South Sudanese communities and save this country from total disintegration, we ought to refrain from negative propaganda and hate speech.

    Mr. Joshua, as grown up people tasked with bringing up our children and youngsters by planting in them love for their country, respect of civilized values, norms and good conduct towards their societies, and show honesty and responsibility in everything we do being verbal or in a written form and give up our personal economic interests and above all the real disease of tribal lenient.

    We must learn to live together, tolerate each other, work together, mourn together, enjoy together without fear or trembling.Let us try to enjoy together peace that the self-styled foreign bodies trying to bring to us.

    Let us be responsible elders Mr. Joshua for the sake of our young generation and unity of this blessed country.

    God come to the rescue of South Sudan.

    Predicting South Sudan Future under Taban Deng and Pres. Kiir and problems to come

    BY: DANIEL JUOL NHOMNGEK, KAMPALA, UGANDA, JAN/04/2018, SSN;

    Perhaps, it may be important to begin this article with the quote from Margaret Thatcher, the former British Prime Minister and stateswoman who was once stated that, “power does not corrupt men, fools, however, if they get into a position of power, corrupt power.”

    This is exactly what is going in South Sudan, which is the subject of this article.

    I cannot say that those who are in power in South Sudan are fools but if they corrupt power as they are doing now then they fit to be described as such.

    This article therefore attempts to predict what will happen in some time to come in South Sudan if South Sudan continues to be run by both Taban Deng and President Kiir Mayardit.

    In particular, the way Taban Deng is dealing with and relating to the president of South Sudan leaves much to be desired. Taban’s dealing with the President now appears that he has ulterior motive and there is likelihood that it will be too late before South Sudanese discover that Taban has already taken power.

    Taban is going to take power in three or so years to come because he is now busy to apply the principles found in the Book entitled 48 laws of power.

    In that Book, Robert Greene and Joost Elffer discuss the principles one must follow if he or she is to get into power. Some of those principles are—
    ….first, Never outshine the master;
    ….second, always make those above you comfortably superior;
    ….third, when you show yourself to the world and display your talents, you naturally stir all kinds of resentment, envy…
    ….Fourth, never put too much trust in friends,
    ….fifth, learn how to use enemies;
    ….sixth, conceal your intentions;
    ….seventh, always say less than necessary; eighth, make other people come to you—use bait if necessary;
    ….ninth, win through your actions, never through argument;
    ….tenth, learn to keep people dependent on you;
    ….eleventh, use selective honesty and generosity to disarm your victim; etc”.

    The above principles are the ones Taban Deng is using in South sudan in an attempt to get power. Taban is trying to make President Kiir as much comfortable superior as possible. This implies in practice Taban has to be snobbish, sheepish and submissive in serving the president.

    In other words, Taban does not want to question anything or say anything that is contrary to his boss, the president’s views as he always pampers him with all kinds of words such as “my president”.

    This is despite the fact that though Taban may know that things are not alright in South Sudan, he does not want to question anything or say anything that the president may not like because his mission is not to serve South Sudanese but to be closer to the president as much as possible with the hope that he will get power with time, which is shown by steps he took so far to come closer to power.

    The first step for Taban to power was (as majority of South Sudanese know), was overthrowing Dr. Machar through crookec means in 2016 hence throwing the country into further turmoil.

    Therefore Dr. Riek was the first big causality of Taban’s quest for power even though many fundamentalists in the SPLM have not yet understood and what the target of Taban Deng Gai is.

    The ultimate target of Taban is to become the president of South Sudan whether by fair or crooked means. Hence, Taban is using all means available within his reach to get to power.

    In fact, I have described SPLM supporters above as fundamentalists because they do not accommodate opposing views contrary to what they believe in and any person who holds contrary views is branded as a rebel. This provides cultural medium to the maneuvering techniques of Taban to power since he is an appropriate candidate for SPLM party that likes praises and flatters.

    The above observation in relation to Taban does not take a person much time to make as any person who might have been keenly observing South Sudanese unfolding problems since 2013 to date would have discovered that Taban is at the centre of the entire crisis that befell the country.

    For instance, the study of the root causes of the present war pins Taban down as he is a major player in the outbreak of the war.

    The actions of Taban has shown that he has been planning how to get to power and in order to do that he has to find a way of passing his superiors such as Dr. Riek Machar. Thus, the first plan for him was how to get resources. He put that plan into action by misappropriating resources that were intended to reconstruct the Unity State after the civil war between South and North of Sudan.

    Taban corrupted oil money besides two percentages (2%) (That was intended to build area where oil is drilled from) during his governorship and it is that money he used later in 2013 to fund the present war before he joined the government in 2016.

    As the events have disclosed in the process, the intention of Taban of financing the war using the money he corrupted was not to fight for Dr. Riek but to instigate the war that would lead to Riek leaving the SPLM party to make a room for him as he considered Dr. Riek as an obstacle to him getting power.

    This plan succeeded in 2016. This fulfils common view he holds that one of the people who deny him power is Riek, and if Riek were to get out of the way, he would become the president of South Sudan.

    After having done away with Dr. Riek, Taban has been confirmed by the President of South Sudan as first Vice President while Dr. Riek Machar is wasting away under house arrest in South Africa. However, the beneficiary of Dr. Riek Machar and South Sudanese suffering is South African Government of which unconfirmed report points out that it is now receiving $ 450,000 monthly as a fee for keeping Dr. Riek under house arrest.

    In fact, with Dr. Riek out of political scene and Taban at the centre of power, his next move is to consolidate power and if possible to become the president of South Sudan sooner or later. There is a real fear that Taban is likely to get power in South Sudan as long as Kiir is still the President of South Sudan for the following reasons—

    First of all, Taban uses money and because of that he corrupts the system to get as much money as he can in order to use the money later to buy people to support him. For instance, since he was appointed a governor until 2013, the two percent (2%) of oil money that was supposed to be used for development in Unity State was never used for the development as it was intended.

    It was that money Taban used to finance the war since 2013 to 2015. Though he financed the war his intention was not to maintain the war in order to ensure he put Dr. Riek presidency but just to put Dr. Riek into deeper problems so that he has access to power easily which happened in 2016.

    It is therefore hard to defeat a person like Taban in a country like South Sudan where poverty is high. The use of money and the weakness of the President make it likely that Taban will take power which will take the people of South Sudan by surprise.

    Secondly, Taban has completely weakened the SPLM party as he is the real man behind the decision of the president of South Sudan to sack the members of the party and SPLA officers. Taban being a dealer, he has created a very strong network within the government as some of the ministers and advisors to the president are his friends.

    These ministers and advisors are the ones who hold fate of all civil servants and army in South Sudan and whatever they have said is the law. Hence, whether the president likes it or not, whoever they have recommended to be removed or to be appointed can be removed or appointed as they wish.

    It is in relation to the above we see General Malong and his associates being removed from power as a way of weakening Malong and by implication the president. This is because the approach of Taban in getting power is two-pronged: the first step is to weaken the government by smuggling in his right hand people who serve his interest.

    The ultimate goal of Taban is to weaken the SPLM party that has been making it difficult for him to get power and instead to create the SPLM version that will work in his favour.

    The plan of Taban is to isolate the president and other strong members of the SPLM so that he later does away with the president with ease. In actual sense, Taban is creating a SPLM party of dealers that will control the system not the country and then later use the system funded with the oil money to silence all the critics. At that point there will be no Dinka nor Nuer to support their leaders as it is the case now.

    However, it is not that he will create a nation but he will create a super tribal body composed of different dealers from different tribes who will deal with their tribes either through fair or crook means hence weaken the spirit of tribalism as well as the spirit of nationalism.

    Though this analysis (how Taban may get power) may be correct, the president of South Sudan and his supporters will never understand it or agree with it because they don’t accommodate different opposing views as they don’t like opposition or someone who tells them the truth; hence, they will rather be with Taban Deng who flatters them than someone who tells the truth.

    Thirdly, as a strategy of remaining the First Vice President, Taban will never accept peace with Riek Machar or rebels as long as their coming back to Juba affects his position. Since he has all money it takes the whole South Sudan to have it, Taban will use as much money as possible to ensure that peace does not come.

    It is because of the same reason the kidnapping of the members of the opposition is common in Kenya contrary to the international law. He might have bribed some elements in the Kenyan Government to help him achieve his unbridled desire for power by rooting the rebels out from Kenya.

    Fourthly, Taban will never accept peace to prevail among civilians within South Sudan since some sort of peace will always be a threat to his position as citizens will be able to speak one voice and question his ability to be the First Vice President.

    This is why he has been accused of leaving his national position and gets involved in the issues of tribal land back home between his tribe and Ruweng people.

    And at the same time he and his friends inside the state house will always tell the president that things are going on well on the ground in different part of the country thus the president stays in J1 while lives of the citizens keep on deteriorating all the times due to rampant insecurity.

    This strategy is to keep the president out of the reality and to keep citizens engaged in tribal war to ensure that he gets power with ease.

    Fifthly, one of the reasons Taban is pushing for the reunification of the SPLM party is to ensure that he is confirmed in the position of the first Vice President. With the affirmation in that position, he will at any time become the next leader after the president or in case anything happens to the President he automatically take over.

    Fortunately, FDs have understood this ploy and therefore not ready to risk, which explains the collapse of reunification deals many times.

    Sixthly and finally, Taban Deng Gai is likely to take over power unless there is external intervention to oust him. This is because the president will not be able to control him given the fact that President Kiir does not analyze the movement of a person as long as that person does not show opposition to him.

    After taking over power, the following are the problems as discussed below—
    …..First of all, as soon as Taban takes over the power he will dismantle the SPLM part completely and move towards Khartoum by introducing the Arab style of governance. This is the system of governance where security apparatus protects the presidency not citizens, where the president is above the laws of the country while he or she is being protected by strong personal security sweet coated with national security title, consequently, the country will be highly insecure as citizens will be acting as informant on each other. All these will be intended by Taban to build power base for himself and his cohorts.

    …..Secondly, Taban will run South Sudan like a king as he does not respect the law. His negative attitude towards the law was seen when Counsel Wani successfully challenged the decree of the president appointing ministers to East African Community Parliament.

    At that time reacting to the news that the East African Court of Justice had nullified the Presidential decree, he was quoted to have said that the action of Wani was an embarrassment to the country and to the president because to him the action of the president is not supposed to be challenged in law.

    This shows that Taban does not respect the law and if he becomes the president of South Sudan, the people will have to forget about the rule of law, which by implication means that corruption and bad governance in general will flourish under Taban Deng Gai.

    …..Thirdly, disunity and unknown gunmen will be common in South Sudan. All these will result into South Sudanese rising against the President Taban and he will die like Gadafi or if not removed he will finally die in power leaving South Sudan in more crisis than now.

    In summary, the above discussed predictions and problems will happen in South Sudan unless the citizens of South Sudan realize earlier that Taban is not a reformist but dealer that will use the state for his own benefits to their detriment and the only way to save South Sudan is not to allow him become president of South Sudan. END

    The Author is a lawyer by profession; he graduated with honors in law from Makerere University, School of Law. He participated in various workshops and training in community law and community mobilization in awareness of their constitutional rights in Uganda.

    He is the member of Public Interest Law Clinic (PILAC) and NETPIL (Network of Public Interest Lawyers) at Makerere University; he is currently doing research with NETPIL on private prosecution; he is trained in Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR); he participated in writing Street Law Handbook on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights in Uganda.

    He can be reached through juoldaniel2003@gmail.com or +256784806333.