Archive for: July 2015

US ally of Kiir denounces South Sudan president

By KEVIN J. KELLEY, JUL/09/2015, The East African, SSN;

United States National Security Advisor Susan Rice, long regarded as a key backer of the South Sudan government, denounced President Salva Kiir on Thursday and challenged the legitimacy of his rule.

The South Sudan head of state as well as rebel leader Riek Machar “and their cronies are personally responsible for this new war and self-inflicted disaster,” Ms Rice declared on the occasion of the ravaged country’s fourth anniversary of independence.

She was speaking via a video message released by the White House on the occasion of South Sudan’s independence anniversary.

“It breaks my heart to see what South Sudan has become today,” Ms Rice lamented.

She recalled attending the 2011 independence celebrations in Juba with her 13-year-old son.

“I remember the hope and unity of that day — the promise of a new beginning for you, who had suffered so much and persevered for so long,” Ms Rice continued in comments directed to the people of South Sudan. “Four years later, those happy memories are a horrifying reminder of all that has been lost.”

IN SUMMARY:
****United States National Security Advisor Susan Rice, long regarded as a key backer of the South Sudan government, denounced President Salva Kiir on Thursday and challenged the legitimacy of his rule.
****Four years later, those happy memories are a horrifying reminder of all that has been lost, says Rice.

The key White House advisor to President Barack Obama had earlier acted as an influential outside advocate in pressing the Bush administration to support an independent South Sudan.

The United States did invest considerable diplomatic and financial resources in helping engineer the 2005 agreement that resulted in the breakup of Sudan and creation of a new state with its capital in Juba.

Appalling crimes

As a leading member of the Obama administration, Ms Rice had reportedly favoured a soft approach toward the government headed by Mr Kiir.

She resisted appeals from US allies as well as from Secretary of State John Kerry and Washington’s UN Ambassador Samantha Power to support an arms embargo against South Sudan, according to a report last January in the online journal Foreign Policy.

That story added, “An arms embargo, Rice believes, would undermine a democratically elected government’s ability to defend itself against an insurgency led by Kiir’s former vice-president, Riek Machar.”

But in her comments on Thursday, Ms Rice is unsparing in her criticisms of both belligerents.

“The government and rebels are committing appalling crimes against innocent women, children, and the elderly,” she declares. “And only leaders on both sides can end this violence. Yet, President Kiir and Riek Machar would rather haggle over personal power and wealth than agree on solutions.”

Ms Rice also charged that “the government has abdicated its responsibilities, failed to protect its citizens and squandered its legitimacy.”

Rather than negotiating an end to the 19-month-long civil war, Mr Kiir’s administration “has subverted democracy and unilaterally extended its mandate,” she said.

The statement also contained a warning that the conflict “threatens to destabilise the wider region.”

Ms Rice pledged that “the United States will not abandon the people of South Sudan and their right to live freely and at peace in their own country. We will continue to stand with all those who dream of a better tomorrow.” END

Dinkastlations vs Legislations: The root cause of suffering in Ma’di Land

BY: Oja Silasio, JUBA, JUL/09/2015, SSN;

In the 21st century, every nation is advocating for a system of governance in which the citizens freely make political decisions by majority rule, and those minority groups are still being guaranteed of individual human rights irrespective of their ethnicity, religions, or political affiliations.

The rights of minorities are not solely dependent on majority population or ruling tribe, and cannot as well be determined by majority vote. Their rights are protected simply because laws and institutions are to safeguard the rights of all citizens.

That being said, I am wondering if the laws in our country are meant to protect the rights of every citizen or just to serve the interest of the Jiengs?

In South Sudan one doesn’t need to hold a PhD in History or Political Science, in order to comprehend the entire genesis or evolution of our new nation.

At least every South Sudanese family, in one way or the other, contributed either to its conception or birth, except nurturing as this role has now been assumed by a de facto Head of State, Uganda’s Museveni, who administers the country remotely from his cattle camp in Mbarara, Western Uganda.

By some reports, he does this through WhatsApp, Skype and E-mails. That’s why Salva Kiir is sighted with 16GB iPad2 wherever he goes and he updates his offline dictionary app from time so that he doesn’t miss any of Museveni’s vocabularies.

What is undisputable however is that occasionally he, Museveni, jets into the country to inspect the activities of his Suicide squadron aka UPDF and to deliver lectures on our internal political matters.

On every trip he brings with him some complicated contract forms for Kiir to sign. This Makes Southern Sudan, the only country in the world which outsources its presidency.

Majority of those who watched Kiir’s announcement during the infamous Dec 15th 2013-bloodbath in Juba concluded that the de facto Head of State, Uganda’s Museveni, must have authored the speech as the message contained all the three noticeable characteristics of Kampala-style of propaganda:

1. Simplicity of the message- The message was simple and didn’t require any reasoning. No wonder it is said that simple lie always conquers the complex truth, more especially in a dinkocratic settings.

2. Imagery– Kampala’s propagandists’ boss, M7 is known for embedding his message within appealing imagery. Whenever Ugandans are about to head off to the poll, he regularly appears on national TV while dressed in full military fatigue. This is to assure voters of protection if only they keep “the man-in-uniform” on to power. His little counterpart, Kiir xeroxed this technique when explaining the casus belli of the Dec. 2013 bloodbath on SSTV.

3. Sentiment – The message also contained little detail so that it could appeal to some strong feelings. You would realise that Kiir’s speech can only be summarised into three words (Coup d’état-Criminals-and Justice). The entire world had no choice but to believe his version of the story. Only those conversant with Kampala-Styles of propaganda remained unconverted.

“I will not allow or tolerate such incidents once again in our new nation. I strongly condemn these criminal actions in the strongest terms possible,” he said, vowing those responsible would have to stand “before the appropriate law institution.”

And when he vowed to bring those responsible to face the appropriate laws, he failed to elucidate the laws and the institutions that shall handle the matter.

In South Sudan now we have diverse laws some of which are unknown even to the academics from the legal fields; not because they didn’t read enough books but rather admission into this program is by virtue of birth. You MUST hail from cattle camp and speak Dinka as first language. The Graduates are awarded informal Bachelor Degree in AK-47 Mishandling, and most of them can hardly write their own names.

The Ma’di land is now being governed by Dinkastlations, not legislations.

In essence Dinkastlation is an exclusive informal law formulated by the illiterate Jiengs in Ma’di land. Dinkastlations are not only superior to all formal laws but are also superior to the TEN COMMANDMENTS of THE SOVEREIGN LORD.

Dinkastlations permits the Jiengs to grab any piece of land from the Ma’di people without any preconditions. The charges for resisting their demand can be upgraded to anything worse.

The native chiefs are required to sign any documents presented to them irrespective of the contents. The terms of the documents are in most cases to legitimise the stay of the armed cowboys in Ma’di land since the Jieng’s law considers such individuals as Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs).

And refusal to append signatures accordingly, would earn you a conviction of being SPLM/IO and thence, you are imprisoned and subjected to various forms of torture, which among others may include:
a)… Baptism by immersion into the pit latrine, and
b)… removal of the fingernails and healthy teeth of the victims, yet without any anaesthetics.

These methods are preferred because they make the alleged victims to admit every accusations brought against them.

In the Holy Bible, Jesus instructs his Apostles, “Therefore go and make disciples of all nations, baptizing them in the name of the Father and of the Son and of the Holy Spirit…..” Matthews 28:19.

Jesus never instituted baptism as interrogation technique but it is to serve as public confession of one’s acceptance to follow Christ, and vividly this is to be conducted in fresh water, not pit latrine as is the case in Ma’di land.

Such barbarism not only appalls the Ma’di people but it also DISGRACES our sovereign LORD, THE GOD OF THE OPPRESSED AND THEIR OPPRESSORS and therefore must stop!!!

We all deserve humane treatment from those we put in the positions of authority. We are happy to obey laws that work for the good of our society, both written and unwritten as long as they are consistent with the golden rules; Do unto others as you would have them do it to you,
And deject those dinkal-laws/dinkastlations which are so primitive, devilish, and are totally against our own peace.

Mr. Oja Silasio
Email:ojasilasio@activist.com
Juba-RoSS

Response of the Jieng Council of Elders to the Latest IGAD Proposal on Power Sharing

REPUBLIC OF SOUTH SUDAN
JIENG COUNCIL OF ELDERS – JUBA

Monday July 6th, 2015

Response of the Jieng Council of Elders to the Latest IGAD Proposal on Power Sharing;

Since the outbreak of the on-going costly war in South Sudan in mid-December 2013, between the government and the armed rebellion, the regional bloc, Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) with support from the international community has been exerting efforts that aimed at ending the conflict.

The Jieng Council of Elders (JCE), as a body that is genuinely interested in the attainment of a sustainable peace in South Sudan, though the dream of attaining a durable peace in South Sudan remains sadly elusive applauds IGAD, the region, and the international community for their efforts to help the warring parties to address their differences through a negotiated political settlement.

There are a number of factors for this situation which include the existence of a wide gap between the two parties to the conflict; IGAD’s own internal contradictions and lack of better understanding when it comes to the nature of the conflict; poorly designed mediation agenda and competing interests on the part of those supporting IGAD.

In its latest attempt to push for a peace agreement, IGAD released a document entitled “Key Provisions and Justification for the Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan” to the representatives of the warring parties, distributed recently in Addis Ababa during a consultative meeting with an expressed aim of resuming the currently stalled peace talks.

The JCE is responding to this latest IGAD document to evaluate the viability of the proposal in terms of its potential to end the war in this country. To this end, JCE will highlight certain areas that are problematic, thus presenting a serious challenge to the attainment of peace and stability.

The areas that have some serious concern include power sharing ratios; expansion of the National Legislature; arrangements for states most affected by the conflict; demilitarization of the national capital; establishment of the Hybrid Court for South Sudan (HCSS); and powers of Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (JMEC).

On power sharing formula, the IGAD proposal gives the SPLM/A – IO 33% share of the executive at the national level, second largest position in the national legislature, and control of the three states of Jonglei, Upper Nile, and Unity by 53%, followed by the government with 33% and the remaining 14% for the former detainees and other political parties combined.

The first issue with this proposition is the basis upon which such power ratios were arrived at.

What is the justification for giving the opposition 53% in the war affected states? Does this suggest that the mediation had assumed that Nuer community in opposition, which almost constitutes all of the rebellion, is the majority in the three states?

If this is the case, has IGAD mediation accepted the narrative that the war is between the Jieng and the Nuer?

If the decision is predicated on this, has the mediation taken due diligence to establish the exact ethnic ratios in the three states to form the basis of how power ratios were calculated?

Moreover, if power is being shared on the basis of ethnic ratios, how could the Nuer in opposition get 33% of the state power when the whole ethnic group constitutes no more than 15% of the total population of South Sudan?

This is perhaps also assuming that the whole Nuer community has joined the rebellion. It has not. Of course, the truth is that the conflict is not between the Jieng and Nuer but rather between the government and those who rebelled against the state.

The reality of this war is that it is a political one. Besides, the opposition does not control the said states. It controls only a fifth of the whole area in the Greater Upper Nile region.

The proposal clearly lacks any sound basis, devoid of any coherent logic and does nothing more than to fragment the society and threatens to further aggravate an already fractured social fabric.

The people object to any power sharing ratios being extended to the states because states are diverse and there are many other considerations that go into the decision to form government at the state level that do not necessarily fall into the power ratios.

Regarding the need for the SPLM-IO to be the second largest group after the government in the National Legislative Assembly (NLA), the IGAD proposal seeks to expand to 400 members.

It is appropriate to note that no rationale is given for expanding the NLA. JCE is of the opinion that the expansion of the legislature is unjustifiable given that it was an elected legislature and expanding it to accommodate members of the opposition would be unfair to the constituencies that do not have members in the opposition.

The expansion of the legislature would not only be unfair, but it could create over representation of one community in the government, a situation that is likely to provoke others to embrace use of violence to get represented.

This is a clear case of rewarding abnormality and rebellious tendencies. If there are important members of the rebellion who need to be accommodated in the government, they should go to the executive at the national level.

The same proposal prescribed the demilitarization of the national capital. The public fails to see any reasoning for the demilitarization of the national capital. Juba, the capital city is the sovereign seat of the government and it must remain fully under the control of the national government including its army, police and other organized forces.

It surprises everyone to see such proposal from IGAD. There is no precedence for this and so the people reject any attempt to render their national capital devoid of the national army.

This is essentially non-starter and it deserves an outright rejection from all the people of South Sudan. It is not the presence of troops in the national capital that creates political crises; it is the tendency of politicians to use force to resolve political matters that should be tamed.

Concerning justice and accountability, the proposal makes emphasis on the need to establish a hybrid court, whose mandate would be to try suspected cases of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity under International Law.

This court, which according to the proposal should be established through a MOU between the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU), African Union and the United Nations will see its staff and judges jointly appointed by the Chairperson of AU and UN General Secretary.

Perhaps this institution is proposed under the assumption that South Sudan’s legal institutions do not have the capacity or the will to carry out justice in the country.

Unfortunately, there is a lot of evidence to suggest that such arrangement under the international system neither brings justice to the victims nor reconciliation in the war-affected communities.

Given this reality, JCE is of the opinion that the people of South Sudan are capable and have the experience to deal with justice and accountability matters within their customary systems as well as statutory mechanisms.

By doing this, the process of healing, reconciliation and justice will be expeditious.

An international court such as the one proposed may not enjoy the cooperation of the state and the citizens and therefore would delay justice and it is most likely to delay the achievement of peace and reconciliation in the country.

Furthermore, the proposal talks about the court having jurisdiction in respect to matters of genocide and other crimes committed since December 2013. Since when has IGAD determined genocide as having been committed in South Sudan?

This is telling enough in a sense that there is a serious degree of prejudice and bias towards South Sudan and this is sufficient to warrant our objection to the creation of such an international body.

While the people see the importance of having a body that can monitor and evaluate the progress in terms of the implementation of the peace agreement, JCE is simply stunned by the proposed powers of the Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (JMEC).

According to IGAD, JMEC will be tasked with overseeing the implementation of the agreement, a mandate that essentially guarantees this body “the power to take corrective action in the event of non-compliance with the terms of the agreement”.

Moreover, the proposal intends to make JMEC more than just a body that is entrusted to monitor and evaluate the performance and progress with respect to the peace agreement but rather a powerful governance institution that “shall oversee institutions created or operating during the Transition”.

To ensure that JMEC fulfills its mandate, “all transitional institutions” are expected to regularly report to it.

This is a situation similar to the transitional authority in Iraq that was headed by foreign powers and so if it is allowed, it will set a new precedent for the rest of Africa.

The proposed powers of JMEC simply infringe on the sovereignty of the Republic of South Sudan and therefore, the JCE cannot support the creation of such a body with sweeping powers.

The people may support such a body in as far as it can monitor and verify violations and refer its findings to the principals of the parties to the agreement for resolution.

In conclusion, JCE want to reiterate its support to all efforts leading to the attainment of peace in our country, particularly IGAD mediation efforts as well as the efforts of the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) and the African National Congress (ANC) in Arusha attempting to reunify the ruling party.

JCE is deeply concerned however, that the IGAD mediation efforts are becoming less and less credible with proposals such as this and it is hoped the mediators take serious corrective actions to restore the integrity and credibility of the process.

It is indeed regrettable that the IGAD mediators have fallen short to comprehend the complexity of the crisis; otherwise proposals such as the power sharing ratios would not have surfaced.

This proposal supports speedy fragmentation and dismemberment of this country and people of South Sudan strongly oppose anything that culminates in the disintegration of the people and the country.

The peace process should be anchored on the urgent desire to reconcile and reunite the country, so critical decisions about the future of the country should not be dependent on the fierce compulsion for political expediency.

What this country needs is a deliberative process that preserves its unity, promotes sustainable peace and provides equitable political dispensation. The latest IGAD power-sharing proposal fails to live up to these aspirations, prompting outright rejection.

Signed by Jieng Council of Elders (JCE) Representatives:

Justice Ambrose Riny Thiik
Joshua Dau Diu
Charles Majak Aleer
Maker Thiong Maal
Daniel Dhieu Matuet
Thon Mum Kejok
Aldo Ajou Deng
Parmena Awerial Aluong

‘Thon Mangok hung up himself:’ Path to Tribal Self-destruction

BY: ELHAG PAUL, JUL09/2015, SSN;

On Friday 26th June 2015, a significantly sad event took place in Juba. Facebook carried the story and I thought that the following day this would be reported in the media. But it was not – reason, the story could be explosive and could enlighten the wider Jieng supporters of the SPLM/A machine to realise that they are simply dispensable.

Right now the majority are carried away by the feeling that they are rulers even when they are being sacrificed like lambs in the front lines and the social environment as in this case.

This story must be told and deconstructed for the benefit of all the people of South Sudan. Mr Thon Mangok, a Jieng overwhelmed by the unbearable suffering in the country created by his own kith and kin decided to end his life by hanging himself.

Someone by name of Faza Gabriel posted the images of the late with the message, “Dear Friends, my friend, father, Then (Thon) Mongok hung up himself today at 01.30 pm in POC3 Juba”.

In the image the late hanged on a whitish thick rob firmly tied to the ceiling beam. Mangok wore a dark trouser and a vest. His suspended body hang still with his visibly snapped neck with the face looking downwards to the ground. That very sad look of the deceased sums the very malaise gripping the country.

But beyond that the whole story of Thon Mangok symbolises the destruction of the Jieng people by the Jieng Council of Elders and the destruction of the country by the SPLM/A which is controlled by the latter.

On face value it appears that the Jieng are having it large, especially given their behaviour all over the country. But in reality the truth is that a lot of the Jieng, especially those in the villages are suffering like their brothers and sisters in other parts of the country.

They too are victims. Dr Justin Ambago wrote about this in the past highlighting the suffering of those Jieng dying in Warrap from hunger while their son sat in J1 with his black hat doing nothing to save them.

The greatest irony is that they join his militia in thousands and die to protect him in droves, but the president does not care about their welfare except that of his closest friends in the Jieng Council of Elders.

The militia and the army are not paid regularly. When they die in front line, their bodies are left for vultures to help themselves on. No health facilities. No proper homes or insurance.

Their families are left destitute. But then look at the members of the Jieng Council of Elders along with their closest relatives – they are driving Toyota V8s, Hummers and what have you.

They reside year in year out in luxurious hotels paid by the government. They over-indulge in eating so much so that obesity has become endemic in their circles.

It is this discrepancy of have-and-have-not in the whole country and within the Jieng community itself that produces painful stories such as that of Thon Mangok.

Emile Durkheim, one of the founding philosophers of Sociology, explains that anomic environment among others can cause suicide. In South Sudan, with values and norms disrupted by the alien culture introduced by the SPLM/A, it is not difficult to see why poor Thon Mangok chose to end his life.

Everything is uncertain and there is no future to look to without health service, employment, security of life, food security… etc.

Chinua Achebe in his book, ‘Things fall apart’ from an African perspective similar to Durkheim’s argument shows us how environment can be destructive to life. His main character Obi Okonkwo ends up committing suicide because he could not cope.

Similarly Mangok despairs about the rule of his kith and kin and as a last resort he takes away his life as an act of “preservation” from the SPLM/A system. A system that destroys the secure way of life South Sudanese have known since the British colonial period.

What the SPLM introduced trashed and destroyed the very soul of South Sudan.

All the values of decent living and social relationship got ripped apart by the policies of Jieng Council of Elders. Like Okonkwo, Mangok gave up and took his life.

Mangok must have thought there was no chance of escaping the new destructive order put in place by his own people but to escape through self destruction.

Unlike sociological theories, Psychological theories place the burden on the individual’s inability to cope with the environment. While the medical approach as its name suggests looks at suicide as illness and it strives to treat it with medication.

Regardless of whatever approach, suicide can be minimised if potential candidates are empowered with information and given appropriate support. This is something lacking in South Sudan due to lack of care from the system.

Mangok’s self destruction therefore highlights the measure of lack of information he had as a person. Had he had sufficient information he might have chosen other less drastic options than the one he took and he would still be with us today.

It is worse now for his small family left behind. Their life is going to be a nightmare with a government of kleptocrats that does not even care about those it sends to harm’s way in a war it manufactured to perpetuate Jieng hegemony.

Mangok chose what to him might have seemed as an easy way out. This is not to blame him or to disrespect him as others would.

It was unfortunate that he was unlucky not to have had someone near him to talk him out of taking his life. The people of South Sudan need to know that they should not kill themselves.

Their woes are not of their making. It is the making of SPLM/A and so they should fight back to regain their freedom and what belongs to them by destroying this monstrous thing called SPLM/A.

It is better to die fighting this monster “SPLM/A” thing than to end your own life making it easy for the very system that wants you out of its way.

If Thon Mangok had ended his life in any other country with a conscious population, perhaps the situation in South Sudan now would be different.

This may also be the reason why his melancholic story has been muffled to protect the murderous kleptocratic system in Juba.

Compare the suicide of Thon Mangok with that of Mohamed Bouazizi. In the Town of Sidi Bouzid in Tunisia in January 2011, Bouazizi immolated himself in public and set the country into a revolutionary mode changing the environment that drove him to commit suicide.

Bouazizi’s death, though sad, it served a larger cause of empowering the Tunisian people to regain their dignity while Mangok’s death in South Sudan is an utter waste of human resource.

But, expecting a revolution in South Sudan may be a bit too optimistic now given the brutality of the system that has insulated itself with ruthless tribal army and tribal militia ready to mow people down without any second thought.

The events of December 2013 remain a constant reminder to the people of South Sudan, the extent to which this Dinkocratic system is ready to go to maintain its tribal government.

The only way to deal with it effectively perhaps is what the late Dr Wani Tombe articulated in his speeches in USA, Canada and Australia in 2014.

Here are the youtube videos of these speeches: ‘Dr Wani Tombe calling the People of Greater Equatoria to rise and protect their rights and freedoms’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fIcJ6IQw-SI ‘Prof.Wani Tombe (Speech in Queensland Australia)’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-CzBiOQTuo ‘Dr Wani Tombe Speech in Nebraska 2014’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5r8MGyMWws

It is worth listening to late Dr Tombe’s message carefully because it is so rich and empowering. Dr Tombe in life might have been controversial but the fact that he is sadly not with us now should make people re-examine his patriotic position and his commitment to realising a free South Sudan.

Nobody can blame him now for any sinister motive other than to accept the fact that he has gone with a bang arming the people with intellectual ammunitions to demolish the regime of terror. With humility I take my hat off to him. May Dr Tombe’s soul Rest in Peace.

SPLM/A in its totality is a pathological organisation. Please see ‘The fight of the beast in the luak’. http://www.southsudannation.com/the-fight-of-the-beasts/

Because this outfit is a Jieng organisation, the two have become one with each supporting the other in this destructive course. South Sudan as a whole now risks being destroyed by this suicidal behaviour.

Thus the duty now falls on the rest of the country to save the Jieng from themselves and also directly saving themselves from destruction.

What this means is that the Jieng need to be made aware of the current SPLM/A government’s potential to push them into suicide due to the contradiction that exist within the system for them, for instance they are purported to be the rulers yet they are left just as destitute as the rest.

Mangok was not saved because possibly nobody cared enough to speak to him. But the Jieng and their organisation are now told by this piece and the rest of the country should follow suit.

Those negotiating in IGAD and the mediators too need to tell it to the Jieng in raw form as it is to drive the message home.

It is only when the Jieng are made to understand their foolery will goad them come from Mangok’s sad self destruction.

A distinction of the two suicidal acts the Jiengs have entered into needs to be made from the chaos they created.

First, the Jieng Council of Elders’ policies have produced a pauperised Jieng section that is afflicted with despair and no hope. This tormented group is now suffering silently without any voice and receive no sympathy from the rest of the country. As a result sad stories like that of Mangok are surfacing.

The second group is made up of the fighters that stuff the killing machine, the SPLA. Because of the nature of their job and the lack of professional guidance and ethical orientation, they have found themselves misled and beastialised.

Anyone who doubts this should read the recent reports about the war in Upper Nile and Unity states where women and girls are raped and thrown into fire and children castrated and killed by the government troops.

Please see, ‘UN says South Sudan children raped, castrated and thrown into fire’ http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/article-3131329/UN-says-S-Sudan-children-raped-castrated-thrown-fires.html

The horrific acts of the Jieng militia and SPLA both in the battle field and in the security offices all over the country is a problem waiting to explode in the Jieng community and the country at large given the fact that there are no robust health and social structures to support them.

These Jieng boys and girls are now dying slowly through emotional, mental and physical break down. If the experience of the armies of western countries in Iraq and Afghanistan is anything to go by, the Jieng Council of Elders should be prepared for the outcome of their foolery in brutalising their sons and daughters.

As you can see the Jieng on both social and military fronts have set themselves on a suicide course and this is fast getting out of their control.

This malaise of madness afflicting the Jieng comes directly from the SPLM/A and the obsessive lust for power for the sake of it.

The jieng through the policies and actions of Jieng Council of Elders have plunged the country into chaos and in the process they have made themselves to be deeply hated by the other tribes in South Sudan.

Their behaviour on careful examination is irrational and amounts to what could be seen as a collective suicidal ideation. That the jieng’s collective mind appears to be suicidal is something hard to refute or dispute given the widely available evidence.

For example, the rampant killing the Jieng security officers and militia are committing all over the country and the ongoing ethnic cleansing of the Nuer in direct violation of the interim constitution of the country. If their acts are not suicidal then I do not know what suicide is.

The exposure of the Jieng by the Jieng Council of Elders (JCE) to:
–1) the bitter hatred of fellow country men,
–2) pauperisation of the majority and
–3) individual and collective mental illness;
all these for the sake of unachievable objectives such as expansion through encroachment to other people’s lands, and the dream of being the elite of South Sudan is an act of irresponsible leadership.

JCE is only thinking about their personal interest of enrichment and clinging to power at the expense of the wider Jieng community. They are sacrificing the entire South Sudanese including the Jieng willy-nilly and they do not care.

If they did, perhaps Thon Mangok would not have hanged himself. If they did, the foot soldiers of SPLA and the militia would not be constantly unpaid. If they did, the fallen militia and SPLA soldiers would not make feast for the vultures – because they would be buried in dignity.

What does that then mean? Simple! The Jieng who are being abused, especially the militia and those in SPLA need to join hands with their brothers and sisters from the other tribes in the struggle for common good.

This is important because by taking such a step they affirm their humanity and at the same time they will save themselves and their tribe from the deadly course set by the JCE.

What is the point in following the JCE when it is impoverishing you the Jieng, pathologising you the Jieng, and making you the Jieng a subject of extreme hate and ridicule by others?

All in all, the bravado of bravery sung by the Jieng hides the realities of emotional and mental pain emanating from their abuse of state power and involvement in grave crimes like the mass killings of others in particularly gruesome ways.

The enemy of the Jieng now is the JCE and those Jieng who are nursing undetected emotional and mental health problems from their obnoxious behaviour. This type of human destruction is the one presently eating away the Jieng.

They (Jieng Council of Elders) have been walking into it foolishly in the last three decades in pursuit of narrow ideas such as acquiring massive land and the glory of power.

The Jieng are most likely going to pay a heavy price for their reckless behaviour. Thon Mangok’s self destruction sad as it is, symbolises what awaits the Jieng unless they change course. May Thon Mangok RIP.

[Truth hurts but it is also liberating]
Elhag Paul
elhagpaul@aol.com

RESIGN! Rebel Leader Riek Machar tells Pres. Kiir

By WALTER MENYA, DAILY NATION, Kenya, JUL/08/2015, SSN;

South Sudan rebel leader Riek Machar has asked President Salva Kiir to resign, saying his term ends on Wednesday.

Addressing a press conference at Safari Park Hotel in Nairobi, Mr Machar, who is a former vice-president, said President Kiir should step down to pave the way for elections.

*In Summary:
***He claimed government troops has been targeting his people.
***He also claimed the African Union has delayed the release of an investigative report on the humanitarian situation in South Sudan

South Sudan will mark its fourth independence anniversary on July 9.

Mr Machar said as of midnight Wednesday, Mr Kiir’s term would end, alongside that of the national legislature as per the provision of the Transition Constitution 2011, “thus causing the country to (fall) into a very serious constitutional crisis”.

“The term of office of State governors together with those of their respective State legislative assemblies will also have simultaneously elapsed,” he said.

The rebel leader, at the same time, said President Kiir was to blame for the killings in the world’s youngest nation.

He claimed government troops had been targeting his people.

He also claimed the African Union has delayed the release of an investigative report on the humanitarian situation in South Sudan.

A civil war broke out in South Sudan in December 2013 and since then tens of thousands of people have been killed and at least 1.5 million displaced. END

Visible Risks in South Sudan Draft Budget Proposal for Fiscal Year 2015/2016

BY: Garang Atem Ayiik, A Certified Public Accountant & Member of ICPAK, JUL/06/2015, SSN;

Introduction
In democratic societies, budget has become a very important tool through which the government identifies macroeconomic risks, identifies priorities and suggests how to address identified macroeconomic and budget risks.

Budget can be defined as a process in which private and public entities estimate their resources envelops, and identify activities to be financed in accordance with defined objectives and develop oversight functions to reduce revenue leakages or unnecessary expenditures.

To ensure comparability, budget is done annually to allow year-on-year comparison, for South Sudan budget cycle is July-June; in most countries budget is a people-centered exercise, in South Sudan, budget was presented on 1st July 2015 which theoretically, is the effective date leaving no room for public participation either by legislative function and public.

Key Facts and Risks on South Sudan 2015/2016 budget financing
As in 2014/2015, the proposed budget for 2015/2016 presented to parliament by the Minister for Finance and Economic Planning was prepared in an environment of serious uncertainty in terms of oil revenue flows resulting from civil war that started in 2013; and nearly 50% reduction of oil prices in world market from late 2014 prices.

In addition to shrinking revenues envelop, payment of balance of transitional financial assistance to Sudan, ballooning public .debts, and foreign currency induced inflation are key medium term challenges putting sustainability of the budget and national economy in significant doubt.

In this section, I have examined the assumptions and viability of achieving projected revenues. In doing so, I have done comparative analysis of the budget for 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 fiscal years for each revenue categories of net oil revenue, non-oil revenue, donors’ grants and public debts and made review comments therein.

Net Oil Revenue
In 2014/2015 fiscal year, the government budgeted 8.9 billion SSP in net oil revenue but actual revenue in 2014/2015 was 3.7 billion SSP. This was 60% less than budget.

This disparity in budgeted and actual net oil revenue was due to fall in oil prices in the world market which reduced by about 60% from budgeted price of $95 to about $50 dollars per a barrel in 2014/2015.

From this analysis, the net oil revenue in 2014/2015 budget reduced by 60% which was proportionate with reduction in oil prices in the world market.

In 2015/2016 budget, government has proposed a budget for 1,201 billion SSP net oil revenue. This is 33% of the actual net oil revenue in 2014/2015 fiscal year.

In 2014/2015 budget, oil prices were near budgeted prices in first half of the financial year and prices deteriorated to half budgeted prices in second half of the fiscal year 2014/2015.

In 2015/2016 budget, assuming prices are to be maintained as they were towards end 2014/2015 financial year, budgeted net oil revenue should be about 2/3 of actual net oil revenues in 2014/2015 which should be about 2.440 billion SSP.

Why did the government budget for only 1.201 SSP billion which is 50% of my hypothetical projected net oil revenue of 2.440 billion SSP?

Net Non-Oil revenue
In fiscal year 2014/2015, actual net non-revenues was 962 million SSP. This was less by 1,692% of the budgeted of 2.654 Billion SSP. Economy contracted in 2014/2015, but this difference between actual and budget does not reflect contraction but points to an optimistic non-revenue projection in 2014/2015 budget.

In 2015/2016, government has budgeted 1,776 million SSP which is higher by 814 million SSP from actual net non-revenues in 2014/2015 budget. This is 85% higher than 2014/2015 actual revenue.

This increase according to the budget statement is attributed to expected increase in customs and sales tax.

This is a very ambitious projection considering that the government budgeted 1,692% of the actual expenditure in 2014/2015 financial year; this proposed budget is 85% higher than 2014/2015 fiscal year and furthermore, no visible reforms have been undertaken to warrant this bullish projection.

Grants from Donors
In fiscal year 2014/2015, government budgeted for 158 million SSP as grants from donors. Actual grant revenue was 99 million SSP in 2014/2015. Actual grants from donors were less by 37% from the budget.

In 2015/2016, the government has budgeted $128 million SSP, which is 29% higher than actual grants from the donors in 2014/2015.

First, though the variance between actual grants in 2014/2015 and budgeted donors’ grant in 2015/2016 is 29%, there is an exposure that budgeted grants might not be realized.

Second, there is need to encourage donors to utilize government systems to create synergies.

Public Debts
In 2014/2015 fiscal year, the government budgeted for 3.278 billion SSP in form of new borrowing. But according to the minister in his 2015/2016 budget proposal, actual 2014/2015 new borrowing was 7.225 billion SSP which was 220% higher than budgeted.

In the same period, government budget 3.711 billion SSP in form of repayments of Principal and Interest. Surprisingly, the actual repayments of Principal and Interest turned out to be 2.310 billion SSP which is 38% higher than budget.

There are two issues here on repayment of Interest and Principal; one, it is either repayments was deferred in 2014/2015; or second, the budget was very unrealistic, how can actual interest and principal repayment be less by 38% than budgeted while actual new borrowings has increased than budgeted by 220%?

In 2015/2016, the government has budgeted for 220 million SSP as new borrowing and 7.537 billion SSP in expected deficit financing. This brings the total borrowing in 2015/2016 budget to 7.757 billion SSP.

Surprisingly, the 2015/2016 is silent on repayment of Interest and Principals which was 24% of actual spending in 2014/2015.

Emerging Macroeconomic Challenges
In this section, I did a broad review of key macroeconomic risks and recommended areas of engagement to enhance stability and mitigation of associated fiscal and monetary policy risks for South Sudan economy.

2015/2016 funding issues:
First, the net oil revenue has been under budgeted as only 50% of my expected revenue from net oil has been put in the budget. There is need to re-look and get clarity why on 1.021 billion SSP instead of 2.2440 billion SSP; second, non-oil revenue for first time exceed net oil revenue in the budget, I believe there is an overstatement of non-oil revenue in the budget; thirdly, donors’ grants seem overstated too but focus should be to ensure donor’s uses government systems and finally, public debts and deficit financing provides biggest risk being 73% of budget and more surprisingly, the budget is silent on repayment of Interest and Principal which was 24% of actual spending in 2014/2015
Unsustainable Public debts
Accordingly to Minister in his 2015/2016 budget proposal, the public debt stands at 12 billion SSP by the end of 2014/2015. Assuming no repayments for the interest and principal will be done in 2015/2016 as there is no provision in proposed budget, the total public debt will be about 20 billion SSP by the end of 2015/2016 financial year. Being a sum 12 billion SSP opening balance in 2015/2016 financial year and 2015/2016 new loans and deficit financing of 7.757 billion SSP.
With this estimates of 20 billion public debts by the end of 2015/2016, assuming 10 million people, the debt per capita will be 2,000 SSP. At this is rate, this is a serious national exposure in such a short period.
Weakening macroeconomic fundamentals
With already widen gap between official and parallel market rate for foreign currency rate, with additional 7.537 billion SSP in deficit financing, this will lead to increase deterioration in exchange rate and this will induced inflation.
In last financial year, government has used deficit financing. In the proposal, the minister provides two reasons why this has not lead to hyper-inflation; one, because reduction of prices in Uganda which off-set against exchange rate deterioration, and second suppliers paid keep their monies in banks instead of consuming and investing them.
It remains to be seen how off-setting by prices reduction in Uganda will continue. Furthermore, keeping money in the banks by suppliers with deficit funding is not convincing. At less maybe those being paid had reach their optimal consumption and investment levels. Is it possible because of fear for investing abroad due sanction or lack of hard currencies to repatriate these monies explain this?
Managing Transitional Financial Assistance to Sudan
In Sep 2012, the Republic of South Sudan entered into an agreement with Sudan. In this agreement, the RSS agreed to pay transits fees and one-time $3.028 billion dollars to be pay over 3.5 years.
Though there are no details on remaining liability, the Minister in his budget proposal alluded to some payments to Sudan in-kinds, a clear indication of financial inability on part of South Sudan to settle its liability.
Assuming for the $3.028 billion was to be paid over 3.5 years assume equally, furthermore assume as there was no stress in 2013/2014 financial year, the RSS paid $1 billion in this financial year. In 2014/2015 due to war and reduction in oil prices, the government settled only $0.25 billion this is in-line with reduction of production due to closure of Unity and Tharjath Oil-fields and reduction of prices in oil prices and claim that Sudan has begun to confiscate oil for non-payment.
This hypothetical assumptions showed that RSS might not have settle half of Transitional Financial Assistance to Sudan. The agreement demands at the expiry of the agreement, which is towards end of 2016, RSS should pay Sudan the balance which is approximately about $1.5m from above hypothetical estimates. This liability points to worsening further macroeconomic fundamentals.
Moving towards EAC
While government has given lip-service to joining EAC, the economic fundamentals points to a different direction, unrealistic budget, worsening macroeconomic fundamentals, regulated exchange rate and unsuitable public debts. All these indicators are not compatible with EAC economies and the budget has not shown efforts to converge with EAC.
Who is getting the Money?
In 2015/2016 budget, salaries constitute 54% of total budget, 26% as transfers to states and oil producing states; 17% goes to operating expenses; 2% going to capital and finally 1% to others. These numbers show little goes to services provision and development.
From sectors perspective, security get 45% of the budget but if security related agencies in rule of law sector added, the security get nearly 59% of the budget. All other sectors get less than 5% except Public Administration which got 8% and Education with 7%. 2015/2016 continue to be a non-development budget.
Conclusions and Recommendations
Improvement capacity of Central Bank as it will seriously expose economy if deficit financing is not properly managed;
Prepare exit strategy for Transitional Financial Assistance to Sudan by end of 2016;
Create South Sudan Revenue Authority and staff it with capable employees, this has to be through a competitive mechanism for increase non-oil revenue mobilization;
Start mainstreaming EAC integration into economic planning;
Create strong Public Debt Unit within MoFEP as this is most risky area of South Sudan Economy;
Pursue peace to put oil back in pipeline in Unity and Tharjath;
Reduce government wage bill to about 30%– 35% of the budget. The current cost is not sustainable.

Garang Atem Ayiik is a Certified Public Accountant and member of the Institute of Certified Public Accountant of Kenya (ICPAK) and An Independent Economic commentator on South Sudan economic policies. He can be reached at garangatemayiik@gmail.com

Rule of Law has died in South Sudan as rule of man now rules

BY: Juol Nhomngek Daniel, Makerere Law School, Uganda, JUL/06/2015, SSN;

The problems of South Sudan are out of hand due to poor leadership, that has led to insecurity as the rule of law has disappeared. For instance, nowhere is safe in South Sudan except inside the tomb, but if the person is dead then he or she is not saved because he or she does not know whether he or she is alive or not, which means that he or she does not feel pain. In short, no where is save in South Sudan.

People are always under constant fear. Many people are being killed on daily basis but leadership does not care because things have gone to the wholesome stage where every person lives for himself or herself, and God for us all.

The point is that South Sudanese leaders who are remnants of SPLA generals are confused on what to do with the nation. They are confused and do not understand the term nation building.

What they have not understood is the fact that building a nation does not mean building physical infrastructures but it means building human resources first so that an aspect of humanity in human beings is brought out and the inhuman and cruel part of them being suppressed.

It is deplorable.The way the SPLM leadership is building South Sudan leaves much to be desired. The SPLM leadership is capitalizing on the ignorance of the citizens to achieve their own parochial perspective as they are applying divide-and-rule politics.

A reminiscence of British Rule in Uganda and Nigeria and Arabs in South Sudan. Therefore, there is a real risk that the whole nation would be thrown into unending lawlessness and chaos as already seen in some states.

Lakes State is one of such states. The problem of Lakes State like other states of South Sudan is that it is being punished with crude and ruthless form of government that cares for nothing but money and wealth in general. Buying expensive cars is the norms and aspirations of leaders governing all States of South Sudan while citizens are under fire and dirty politics.

What I have seen in not only in Lakes State but all over South Sudan is that the roots of hatred and misgivings are already planted through the institutionalized tribal rule that is likely to haunt South Sudan in some many years to come.

Besides, the army, which is the heart and lifeblood of any nation is politicized as politics has invaded the whole army circle as army generals are being suspended like politicians while the general army body except the generals in South Sudan is wallowing in abject poverty as corruption goes on unabated in the army because no one cares about the welfare of the nation.

The nation is in fact sold alive and is being consumed in four-mouthed barrel of greed and myopic politics. The whole scenario is sad. South Sudanese and its citizens are stuffed at the back. They have even become slaves in their own country.

South Sudanese fought the war to liberate South Sudan but found themselves enslaved by ruthless and myopic leaders that have nothing to add to the nation but instead become a burden to the nation.

In actual sense, the leaders of South Sudan unlike Uganda are a burden to the nation. For instance, leaders of South Sudan have stolen billions of dollars as indicated by the forms of houses that they have built in Uganda and elsewhere that the president of Uganda or presidents of other nations in which they have built such houses do not even have because those leaders have at least put in place the ideology, law and order as signified by their Constitutions.

Hence, the existence of such deadly corruption in South Sudan can be attributed to the fact that the rule of law is dead since it is now the rule of man that rules.

Thus, as a matter of fact, where the law is undermined there is always emergency of chaos. It is upon this ground that I can foresee that South Sudan will never be stable for twenty or thirty years to come.

Due to lack of rule of law and ideology, citizens of South Sudan feel that they do not have any direction and this is why they are confused as their lives are in state of nowhere. This is because rule of law is dead in the whole of South Sudan as the rule of man takes precedence.

Law is upside down since the rule of law is dead as the rule of man takes center stage. The citizens are being ruled by rule of man without law and order. The nation is held hostage by a clique of miscreant gang that is ready to grab the nation’s resources as soon as the opportunity avails itself.

The recent report on disappearance of millions of dollars in Central Bank of South Sudan and the suspension of employees in the office of the president who forged the signature of the head of State to steal money from Central Bank confirms the truth that there is no rule of law in South Sudan.

If there were a strong rule of law the individuals who forged the signature of the president to siphon millions of dollars out of the bank would have been charged with economic sabotage against the nation. Economic Sabotage is the practice of undermining the economy of a nation.

It is a tactic used to pressure governments. The power of the markets is such that it may be wielded as a weapon to damage the stability a country’s economy, raising food/fuel prices, interest rates on international debts and other factors important to an economy.

As seen from the above explanation of what economic sabotage is, it can be concluded that economic sabotage is a serious crime that can be punished even with death as seen in some countries such as China.

Before we go to the conclusion, it is important to note that it is not foreseeable in the near future in South Sudan that things will change for the better unless rule of law is enforced and justice prevails.

In summary due to the fact that there is no rule of law, South Sudanese government officials are and will be stealing money with impunity. Thus, there is a need for all South Sudanese to get united irrespective of their tribal backgrounds to fight a war against misgovernment that is currently going on in South Sudan.

NB// Th Author can be reached Via, juoldaniel@yahoo.com

Uhuru Kenyatta to table results of South Sudan peace talks

BY: FRED OLUOCH, The East African, JUL/04/2015, SSN;

IN SUMMARY:
*President Salva Kiir and rebel leader Dr Riek Machar narrowed down their differences to power sharing, federalism, compensation for the war victims and the integration of the army.
*The two parties agreed that Dr Machar be reinstated as the first deputy chairman of the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) according to the recommendation of the Arusha Accord, but the issue of power sharing remains tricky.

As the rapporteur of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development on South Sudan, Kenya’s President Uhuru Kenyatta is now expected to table the results of discussions with the leaders of the two warring parties on four outstanding issues that emerged from the Nairobi consultations last week.

After a two-day meeting in Nairobi on June 27 and 28, President Salva Kiir and rebel leader Dr Riek Machar narrowed down their differences to power sharing, federalism, compensation for the war victims and the integration of the army.

President Kenyatta asked the two parties to work out how the four issues will be handled.

By Friday, the government had submitted their position while Dr Machar’s side said it was still fine-tuning the responses at Nairobi’s Safari Park hotel.

According to the new initiative by Kenya and Uganda to fast-track the peace process through the Arusha Accord, the Igad mediators will now need to find a middle ground on the four issues.

The two parties agreed that Dr Machar be reinstated as the first deputy chairman of the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) according to the recommendation of the Arusha Accord, but the issue of power sharing remains tricky.

READ: New deal could reinstate Machar to VP’s position

According to South Sudan deputy ambassador to Kenya, James Morgan, the government has decided that since President Kiir has reinstated SPLM officials who were sacked, the issue of power sharing will be agreed within the party structures.

“The party is now one and you cannot share power within it, but only distribute positions,” said Mr Morgan. “Our position is that SPLM should now invite other political parties to form a government of national unity.”

But the rebels, through the SPLM-IO representative in Kenya Adel Sandrai said that while they have accepted the reinstatement of Dr Machar to the party, the conflict has gone beyond the party and it is now a national crisis, noting that the Arusha Accord is meant to facilitate the final peace agreement.

“We need power-sharing as a guarantee that reforms will be undertaken and for us to have a voice on the way reforms should be implemented,” said Mr Sandrai.

On federalism, the government argues that it cannot be left to only SPLM to decide on a new system of government because it is a national issue that must be discussed within the larger constitutional reforms. It must be taken to parliament and then the people decide through referendum, it notes.

The rebels have submitted that federalism should be included in the final agreement because the current systems in South Sudan were handed down via the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement without consulting the people.

Dr Machar’s group further maintains that federalism has been a demand for South Sudanese since 1947 and that the recent gathering of all 64 ethnic groups in March also recommended federalism as a way of avoiding future conflicts.

On the issue of the army, Mr Morgan said the government had agreed that all SPLA fighters who defected with Dr Machar be reinstated to the positions they held before the war. This excludes the militias who were not in the army.

But the other side argues that the SPLA comprises of militias because it has never been transformed into a conventional army. Thus, the number of the soldiers the country needs should be decided upon, taking into account the ethnic diversity.

The issue on the compensation of the victims is likely to prove tricky given that civilians have been displaced, killed or lost property in the last 19 months.

Mr Morgan said that the two sides had agreed to set aside $100 million in the budget every year for those who were displaced and lost property in Greater Upper Nile— the amphitheatre the conflict.

The government has also proposed to increase the statutory two per cent oil that the government cedes to Upper Nile to five per cent to help in the reconstruction.

The rebels, however, want the compensation to include other areas like Western Equatoria and northern Bahr-el-Ghazal. END

Lack of progress in peace talks will lead to economic collapse in South Sudan.

By Chap Phan, South Sudan, JUL/03/2015, SSN;

South Sudan goveornment cannot afford to maintain its current levels of military spending for long given dwindling foreign reserves. The military sector spending has increased significantly since the war started in December 2013.

The government’s original budget for 2012/2013 was based on the assumption that oil would be above $100 dollars a barrel; that the GDP would grow in a positive direction; and that inflation would be kept under a reasonable rate.

None of these things have proven to be the case; instead the government has cut overall spending on social service and the real economy has spinned downhill ever since.

The resolution to the conflict, which has killed well over 50,000 citizens, is not coming to an end fast enough for the average South Sudanese despite mediation of Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).

Several peace agreements have passed and gone without real resolution to the underpinning of the conflict. They government side has not shown desire for political dialogue and the opposition leader, Dr. Riek Marcher’s aversion to war has made it less likely for the government to take his compromises seriously.

Unfavorable environment for the Kirr government.
South Sudan government generates most of it revenues from oil, the major life-blood of the nation’s economy, but the oil production has been reduced from 350,000 barrels a day in 2011 to average of 160,000 barrels a day, a general 54 percent reduction in the output.

Paloch oil field is the only surviving operational oil field that supports government budget.

External factors have put more heavy pressure on the government budget as well, i.e., lower oil prices on the world market, lack of foreign direct investment, and high foreign exchange induced inflation.

In addition, the government has lost most of the financial aid it receives from development partners and friendly nations.

Essentially, the government in Juba does not have enough money to cover their operational expenses, most of which goes to military.

Plugging the gap in the budget.
During the fiscal year 2014/2015, South Sudan government budgeted 5.6 billion dollars for fiscal year ending on July, 2015, more than half of the budget was allocated to security sector, and some of the money to pay down interest on outstanding debts, thus social services was barely allocated any budget.

On the revenues side of the equation, Government received $2.496 Billion in oil revenues in 2014 after netting out $884 million for transit fee to North Sudan. Lower oil price and reduced output have created fiscal deficit for the country.

Consequently, in order to fill the gap in the budget the government needed to borrow over 1 billion dollar from the Oil companies; this is in addition to $256 million and $78 million it borrowed from China National petroleum Corp (CNPC) and Dutch firm Trafigura, respectively.

Due to the ongoing conflict, Kirr government has not been successful in attracting funding anywhere so far. As a result, Kirr government has been forced to dip into its reserves fund.

These fund stood at near 1 billion dollar at the beginning of Dec 2013; as of Feb, 20015, South Sudan had only 309.74 million in it reserve (refer to figure 1.1 below).

If the deficit continues at the current rate, Kirr government will run out of money in a few months; which would force the government to accept unsustainable peace deal given the overhanging of sanctions from the Western Governments.

A sanction from the West would make it harder to borrow money or sell oil in the world market.

Figure 1.1. Withdraw of South Sudan reserves for the last 15 months since the beginning of the War in Dec, 2013.

South Sudan monthly reserves in dollar:

Month Dollar
December, 2013 $947.81
January, 2014 $930.33
February, 2014 $612.85
March, 2014 $555.31
April, 2014 $527.87
May, 2014 $321.55
June, 2014 $370.69
July, 2014 $518.70
August, 2014 $504.92
September, 2014 $518.23
October, 2014 $454.65
November, 2014 $470.16
December, 2014 $416.81
January, 2015 $251.93
February, 2015 $309.74

Sources: Data from domestic authorities and the World Bank data, 2015.

Summary.
South Sudan war is costing the country far more than Kirr can count, he need to find a way out. The human costs are terrible; tens of thousands have died, 2 million people have been displaced and South Sudan is facing downward economic free-fall.

If that level of spending continues, South Sudan’s reserves fund will be exhausted before the end of the year, if not sooner.

The international community needs to do more to pressure the government to accept peace to prevent the escalation of the conflict.

They can apply appropriate economic pressure to government to accept sincere peace; in particular, International community should ensure that oil revenues are not used to fuel the conflict.

Kirr government has not defeated the dissenter since the beginning of the war although government had advantage in terms of resources and access to the funding from the outside.

It will be certainly hard to defeat the rebels now given that oil prices have collapsed and Western governments are frustrated with Kirr Government.

The long term solution is for the government to accept peace that addressed the underpinning of the conflict; otherwise, a bad deal where corruption and mismanagement still reigns could only lead to more disaster that can threaten the future of South Sudan; Peace is the only path that will save South Sudan from impending economic collapse.

References
1-African development Bank, 2015
2-IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2014
3-World Bank, 2015

What Legacy would SPLM Leaders leave behind in South Sudan?

By Tong Kot Kuocnin, Legal Counsel, JUL/03/2015, SSN;

The history of many African Liberation Movements have succinctly and coherently revealed that fighting for freedoms, in order to free your people from all yokes of oppression and marginalization of the repressive and most terrible despotic regimes in Africa is one thing and maintaining the legacy after the war to live longer is another.

Too many African liberation movements suffered this fate and SPLM as one of Africa’s strongest liberation movements of its time is thoroughly defaced by this disease and is on the next row.

The SPLM fought a fierce protracted civil war with the Islamist led government centered in Khartoum for more than two bloody decades which eventually culminated in the signing of the comprehensive peace agreement which formed the legal basis for south Sudan statehood.

That was such an admired and well received legacy the SPLM as a liberation movement registered in the history of our nation. But is this legacy worth living on as it should have been? It’s certainly not.

The SPLM after becoming a ruling party in both the former Sudan and the Republic of South Sudan seems to have fallen short of its visions and missions and certainly lost its right direction.

The legacy which it had earned is being eaten away by some ants in its own thatched house where its cleaners became the bosses. The legacy is no longer worth living in the hearts and minds of the peoples of south Sudan, maybe only the SPLM diehards like myself may say yes, it would be worth living but loosely because it is the same SPLM that is eating its own tail.

This is manifested by unethical and unprocedural reckless and quirky mismanagement of almost all the resources of the state misguided by this assumption of being leaders of SPLM.

This malfeasance conduct by these leaders led to the standstill and hence dysfunctionality of all the other organs of the party hence relegating some of them to become weak and useless.

These leaders thrust themselves out by stabbing at the back the legacy they fought so hard to win. And of course they won but they have washed away all the credits and veneration they had earned first as fighters in the bush and in the government.

But despite all this respect, admiration and love the people of south Sudan accorded them, they decided to immerse our beloved nation into the toilet.

They divisions, power wrangles and quarrels that have inconsistently been going on within the ranks and files of the SPLM show that SPLM as a liberation movement is going through the same hole most African liberation movements have gone through and has signal very resoundingly that it is suffering from the same disease.

However, belittling this infighting within SPLM in such ingenuity to its survival and rules won’t take this country ahead.

The legacy of mass killings of innocent and vulnerable women, children and elderly is such a mischievous iniquity. The legacy of burning all the villages and infrastructure worth living of human beings is such a worst legacy to leave in history.

The legacy of looting all the civilians’ properties, raping every girl child and kidnapping women for forceful marriages is menacing to the entire state of south Sudan and hence the most dirtiest history a party like SPLM has in the records.

Therefore, what legacy would these so-called SPLM leaders leave behind for the people of South Sudan to remember them?

Is it the killings of innocent people they have masterminded due to greed for power within the party?

Is it the looting of the properties of the civilians?

Or is it the burning of villages, raping of women and girls that we should remember them for?

The legend of this legacy has ventured and vanished away due to such inadvertent chaotic behaviors by the callous SPLM leaders as they called themselves, setting themselves unknowingly on such shameful shambles of history.

However, shamefaced by the fact that they have lost all the respect and admiration that have all been accorded them by the populace, they disgracefully embark on pandemonium acts in the SPLM leadership circles.

That legacy is very much lamented by many who had wished SPLM to move on as clean as it fought for the freedoms of the people of south Sudan. These leaders as they claimed in the SPLM cajole the people of South Sudan into a great calamity which will take some time to calibrate.

The cantankerous bigoted SPLM leaders begrudge each other over a plate that is big enough to feed all of them at the expense of the people they claimed to be theirs.

This unspeakable torment the so-called SPLM leaders callously impelled on the people of South Sudan is very much deplored and detested.

The imperiousity SPLM has earned in the sights and hearts of the people of south Sudan has been chattered away and completely lost and even thrown into the dustbin.

They have torn apart our social bonds which bind us together as one people of this great country due to their selfish interests and coherently coerce our people to believe in their mindless violence which eventually cost only our poor and vulnerable people very pricelessly.

They have uprooted our social cohesions and our being one people and begin to look at each other as tribes, as enemies and not as brothers and sisters who share common bonds and oneness.

Their debility in the SPLM house has debilitated all our social bonds and crippled them to a certain extent.

This legacy is such a legacy which deserved no special place in our history books.

The pain, the suffering, the destruction, rape and mass killings caused by these heartless leaders will surely be remembered for centuries to come as people who have caused and initiated unspeakable atrocities and untold human suffering of the sorts in the history of the Republic of South Sudan.

Tong Kot Kuocnin is a Master of Laws (LLM) Candidate at the School of Law of the University of Nairobi and a Practicing Legal Counsel at Deng & Co. Advocates and a die-hard Member of SPLM. He can be reached at: tongbullen@gmail.com.